The economics of Brexit: What have we learned? conference

Agenda

9.25am - 9.30am Welcome: Jonathan Portes UK in a Changing Europe

9.30am - 10.45am KEYNOTE

The UK & the global economy post Brexit

Adam Posen, Peterson Institute of International Economics
Respondent/in conversation: Lizzy Burden, Bloomberg

10.45 - 11:00am. BREAK

11.00am - 12.15pm Brexit and the impact on trade

Thomas Sampson, London School of Economics
Josh De Lyon, London School of Economics/University of Oxford
Discussant/chair: Anna Isaac, The Independent

12.15pm - 1.15pm: Lunch

1.15pm - 2.30pm The Political Economy of Brexit

Thimeo Fetzer, University of Warwick
Meredith Crowley, University of Cambridge
Discussant/chair: Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe

2.30pm - 3.30pm Brexit and trade in services

Jun Du, Aston University
Sarah Hall, University of Nottingham
Discussant/chair: Mehreen Khan, The Times

3.30pm - 3.45pm: BREAK

3.45pm - 4.45pm Immigration after Brexit

Jonathan Portes, UK in a Changing Europe
Madeleine Sumption, University of Oxford
Myrto Oikonomou, International Monetary Fund

4.45pm - 5:00pm Close
Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe

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[sebastianzeitblom]

Agenda with timestamps

0:23:45 Welcome: Jonathan Portes UK in a Changing Europe

0:29:28 KEYNOTE - The UK & the global economy post Brexit. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute of International Economics. Respondent/in conversation: Lizzy Burden, Bloomberg
1:21:39 Questions

2:03:23 Brexit and the impact on trade
2:05:36 Thomas Sampson, London School of Economics
2:28:45 Josh De Lyon, London School of Economics/University of Oxford
2:49:44 Questions
Discussant/chair: Anna Isaac, The Independent

4:13:09 The Political Economy of Brexit
4:13:57 Meredith Crowley, University of Cambridge
4:39:40 Thimeo Fetzer, University of Warwick
5:03:42 Questions
Discussant/chair: Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe

5:32:13 Brexit and trade in services
5:34:28 Jun Du, Aston University
6:04:33 Sarah Hall, University of Nottingham
6:26:40 Questions
Discussant/chair: Mehreen Khan, The Times

7:01:22 Immigration after Brexit
7:04:29 Jonathan Portes, UK in a Changing Europe
7:13:11 Madeleine Sumption, University of Oxford
7:35:25 Myrto Oikonomou, International Monetary Fund
7:49:40 Questions

8:07:20 Close
Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe

[ffi]

Looks like Brexit is going well. Thank goodness I left the UK

[casteretpollux]

U.K. old age pension is pitifully low per capita. The speaker on this question seems not to recognise that the demographic trend due to the boom years growth leads to an increased pension burden unless you want to starve and freeze older people to death. Britain is the most economically unequal country in the G7. Due to a looting Tory government of barbarians with a weak opposition. Surely that is a more fixable issue than eliminating the old?
The designation
"Low skill populations" in many cases is used by the same speaker as a misnomer for deindustrialised and unemployed highly skilled populations. In Britain as first-comer to industrialisation there is a tradition of on-the-job training both in skilled maufacture and management - in contrast to European / German traditions of Technological Universities and schools-based apprenticeships.
A belief in these deindustrised areas that industry could revive with Brexit was emotional not rational and used politically by the Tories who linked it to British Imperialist revivalism. Global Britain is a strategy in which the UK tries to grab a global role by defence deals and trouble-making with warships (e.g. provocative warship run to Crimea May 2021).
Is it nit picking to ask why Ireland does not exist for this speaker?

More men than women voted Brexit : women are now more left leaning in the UK.
Most people in work voted to remain in the EU.

[georgeholmer]

Great stuff but please cut the loong introduction out next time.

[sudheersurapaneni]

Brexit Hit or Fut?
Neither.
Just a throwback to the past.
Long live dark ages.

[danielepavone]

I always thought that there is no better way to prove a critical and dodgy theory than letting some idiot try it personally. Good thing it was the UK.

[danielwebb]

2016-2019 GDP growth
UK 6.7%
Germany/France/ Italy 7.0/6.9/4.3
= UK consistent with our EU G7 peers

2020&21 UK got back to end 2019 gdp in November 2021.
EU?
...
..
November 2021

What have we learnt so far? Not much. Very early. No material evidence of hit so far. Certainly no 2017 recession as IMF promised.

All this trade reduction. Was either little value added. Or the people have instead done something else, of similar value added.

[alexanderromanov]

Car production in Great Britain continues to fall, figures show
Alan Jones Reuters 3 hrs ago

Car production has continued to fall, with almost 130, 000 fewer
vehicles built in the first three months of 2022 compared with a year
ago, new figures show and 300, 000 pre Brexit referendum.
UK car production performance© PA Wire UK car production performance
The
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said manufacturing
declined by almost a third, with the industry going into the global
shortage of semiconductors and other components.
A total of
201, 347 new cars were built during the first quarter, down from 306, 558
in the pandemic-affected same three months in 2021 and 508, 011 for the
three months leading up to June 2016
Output in the last month
of the quarter fell by more than a third, down from 115, 498 last year to
76, 900 – making it the weakest March since the financial crisis in
2009.
Exports to the United States saw the greatest decrease
during March, dropping by 63.8%, while exports to the EU declined by
54.5%.
“We wanted the UK to be at the forefront of the transition
to electrified vehicles, not just as a domestic market but as an
exporting manufacturer, however, as action is urgently needed to recruit
a highly skilled workforce from overseas, with visa requirements and a
highly xenophobic streak running through British society, this is now so
far out of reach that designers and engineers are now looking to
mainland Europe, ”