My Fall and Winter Tornado Forecast (2024-25)

The start of fall is just a few days away, which signifies the start of our secondary tornado season in the United States. In this video, we'll attempt to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution in the United States for the upcoming fall and winter secondary season (October 2024 - February 2025). We'll discuss how global climate teleconnections and Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures modulate tornadic activity in the United States in fall and winter before diving into some analog years with similar background conditions and giving my overall forecast.

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Chapters

0:00 Introduction
2:08 El Niño Southern Oscillation
5:09 Pacific Decadal Oscillation
6:34 Other possible teleconnections (AO, PNA)
9:32 Gulf of Mexico SST anomalies
10:39 Current forecast products
12:21 Discussion of analogs begins
12:54 Analog: 1966-67
13:52 Analog: 2016-17
14:54 Analog: 1970-71
16:04 Other (weaker) analogs
16:29 My fall/winter tornado forecast

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Resources:

"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter

"An unusually prolonged Pacific-North American pattern promoted the 2021

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[TRGTornado]

Everyone drop everything! Convective Chronicles just uploaded! Great video!

[zachsteiner]

Awesome! Was very much looking forward to this. Thanks Trey, these climatology videos are always some of my favorite.

[americangirl]

Thanks Trey! Appreciate you and the channel

[janledford]

Thankyou so much Trey!! Been watching for this! I’ll be watching for your forecast. That 2016-2017 season is the one that got me. I’ll just do as I always do now a days, be very watchful. God bless!

[ihatechiyo]

NY wasn't in your first forecast for obvious reasons, and yet we saw record tornado activity here with now 29 confirmed as of me writing this. Alaska even had a tornado this year! Nowhere was spared this spring and summer; hopefully fall remains quiet for both TC's and tornadoes. I'm tired of seeing huge debris balls over towns this year.

Edit: 34 confirmed as of September 20.

[weathermanofthenorth]

Awesome outlook! Looking through the analogs had to be entertaining and exhausting! As smart as I am, there is so much more I need to learn. And you have been one of my favorite sources for studying. Thank you so much for the help you provide! On a second note, it's funny because yesterday, I was binge-reading Researchgate articles on tornadoes. Started out with Joplin and Phil Campbell tornado studies. But then I found this article on the relation between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and summertime tornadoes in the US. Then, I found that exact same article on the December 2021 tornado outbreak being affected by the prolonged PNA.

[calebcopeland]

1600 hundred reports by September is insane work

[ebonycarter]

Trey all i can say is thankyou for your videos with how wild this years weather has been, laying everything out on the table makes this alot easier to digest❤❤❤

[jdyoung]

I was literally thinking today if you'd have a fall/winter forecast. Great timing!

[elitennis]

Thanks Trey! My areas in the hotspot so hopefully there won't be anything major.

[binguette]

Been waiting for this. Thanks as always for the great info and video CC!

[MightyMuffins]

So here we all the parameters we are seeing right now Trey, I personally think we are looking at an INCREDIBLY active 2nd season in the Midwest and Dixie Alley...probably Midwest too more. The Gulf is open for business with it being so warm that getting many huge warm sectors ahead of these big low pressure systems in the Fall looks almost a given. I think dew points and that won't be an issue but given the trend too we are seeing for the PNA to be where it has been the 4+ years now it's basically fitting in perfectly too why the 2nd seasons have been hyper-tornado active and so persistent with no much of a break. I think the PNA in the Fall/Winter is probably the biggest driving factor it seems lately in what a 2nd tornado season will like. The ENSO is more broad but there's something about that PNA and just the Gulf so warm now on a yearly basis that we probably are in for a incredible tornado season to continue once again. The PDO also yes can't be ignored obviously.

Actually also the CPC forecasts are a bit ballsy for the above AVG precip. Usually that makes sense for the Northeast and La Nina for better precip and snow forecasts but how this year has gone and just the background trend....I think it will be mostly rain and a bit more drier than what the CPC has. They definitely didn't get this incredibly dry pattern for how almost all of September has and looks to be another 2 weeks here in the Northeast/Great Lakes. Usually the CPC I only look at 1-2 weeks out and that's about it. Maybe sneak at the 1 month and 3 month outlook. Usually those are more wrong than right. XD


Actually I know it's far to look out to 2025 but man we are flipping back to neutral ENSO again and like we saw with a La Nina flip to neutral in the PEAK tornado season like shit we are likely in for another hyper hyper tornado 2025 year at least on this one sense.

[WeatherNOAANWSfan]

Thanks for the video! It’s much appreciated.

[windwatcher]

Beautiful work! Well done.
I have to admit, as soon as you listed 1966 as an analog year, i said "ooooh the Belmond Homecoming F5!" 😳 Gads. Can it miss us this time? I think Iowa got it's fill of tors this year....

[constance]

Once again, very well done. Your work with the analogs has to be time consuming but I think they are a good indicator (not that I know anything 😂 but they seemed to be with your prediction of this past season ... which was outstanding btw 😁)

[scottazevedo]

Thanks Trey. Really good video and great in-depth information on the research. I'm really big into looking at ENSO and PDO data to assist on getting a general idea but didn't know about AO and PNA tie in and that's really good info. I really enjoy all the details in data you put into all your videos, and I learn a lot and enjoy it. Keep up the great work you do!!

[peachxtaehyung]

Yes i remember the 2016-2017 season. It was crazy from what i remember and we had a weak tornado somewhat near here

[aubsarg]

So happy to see your channel growing! Your amazing! Oh and btw the other day, when my body literally put me in a drunken slumber, it stormed! So I wonder why my body sleeps a day before these storms r hitting. Once it’s done, I’m like perfectly fine again. Not tired no headache

[tmanokc]

18:18 In keeping with this, Francine (which was officially named hours after this upload) is expected to make landfall in the central Gulf Coast (somewhere along the Louisiana coast) as a Category 1 by September 11, so that anomaly may pan out to an extent.

[drewcox]

Looking at the American WX forum and I see 98-99 and 07-08 get tossed around a lot, though they were both stronger Ninas than this one, and we know both had a massive mid winter outbreak in the Mid-south region before migrating to the Plains in May/June. Also to consider the Trans-Nino index may be going positive in the spring. A 2013 study shows a +TNI (region 3.4 cooler than 1 and 2) has a substantial increase in large- scale tornadic activity in Hoosier/Dixie corridor. I got a sick feeling about what coming down the line between now and June...