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My Fall and Winter Tornado Forecast (2024-25)
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The start of fall is just a few days away, which signifies the start of our secondary tornado season in the United States. In this video, we'll attempt to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution in the United States for the upcoming fall and winter secondary season (October 2024 - February 2025). We'll discuss how global climate teleconnections and Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures modulate tornadic activity in the United States in fall and winter before diving into some analog years with similar background conditions and giving my overall forecast.
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction
2:08 El Niño Southern Oscillation
5:09 Pacific Decadal Oscillation
6:34 Other possible teleconnections (AO, PNA)
9:32 Gulf of Mexico SST anomalies
10:39 Current forecast products
12:21 Discussion of analogs begins
12:54 Analog: 1966-67
13:52 Analog: 2016-17
14:54 Analog: 1970-71
16:04 Other (weaker) analogs
16:29 My fall/winter tornado forecast
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Resources:
"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter
"An unusually prolonged Pacific-North American pattern promoted the 2021
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapters
0:00 Introduction
2:08 El Niño Southern Oscillation
5:09 Pacific Decadal Oscillation
6:34 Other possible teleconnections (AO, PNA)
9:32 Gulf of Mexico SST anomalies
10:39 Current forecast products
12:21 Discussion of analogs begins
12:54 Analog: 1966-67
13:52 Analog: 2016-17
14:54 Analog: 1970-71
16:04 Other (weaker) analogs
16:29 My fall/winter tornado forecast
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter
"An unusually prolonged Pacific-North American pattern promoted the 2021
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