How the Australian Housing Crash Will Happen

In this in-depth analysis, we dive into the complexities of the Australian housing market, exploring the resilience and potential challenges that lie ahead in 2024. After a year of remarkable recovery and price surges, questions loom large about the future. We've gathered insights from a range of sources, including Broker News, AFR, The Property Tribune, Stockhead, CoreLogic, and more, to give you a comprehensive overview of what's happening in the housing market across Australia.

Key Highlights:

Market Resilience: Despite 13 interest rate rises and high household debt, the Australian property market has shown unprecedented strength. With a significant dip in property listings and a surge in owner-occupier loans, what's driving this resilience?

2024 Predictions: Experts predict a mix of moderate gains and slight declines across different capital cities. What does this mean for potential buyers and investors?

Economic Factors: From auction clearance rates to population growth, various factors are influencing the market's trajectory. But with mortgage stress reaching unprecedented levels, how close are we to a tipping point?

The Role of the RBA: As the Reserve Bank of Australia navigates through inflationary pressures and potential rate hikes, what impact could this have on the housing market?

Strategies for Homebuyers and Investors: Amid uncertainties, we discuss strategies to navigate the market confidently, including timing the market, diversification, and long-term investment planning.

DISCLAIMER:

Full Disclaimer here –

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[DC-lwdj]

Thank the politicians for this lack of affordability. Hard to see housing becoming affordable in Australia when politicians own investment property portfolios. There is a conflict of interest and politicians would not want their personal wealth to drop.

[AnthonyTolhurst-dwnc]

Commodified housing, that’s why. They’re financial product, not HOMES.

[bradscott]

Australian government/politician's must adopt the following to provide a financial environment beneficial for Australian tax paying citizens. 1/ Non Australian citizens should not be allowed to own ANY type of property within Australia. This will help property affordability for all Australian citizens by removing this competition out of the market place. 2/ Inflict high taxes upon those non Australian citizens that do not make their properties available for rent within Australia to Australian citizens. This will increase the supply of rental properties available on the open market and will help stabilise and possibly decrease cost to rent. It may also force overseas investors to sell their property which will help increase supply over demand which in turn will help bring down property prices. All of the above could be implemented within weeks following the stoke of a pen. Our politicians live in a different world to the citizens that employ them.

[stevenmitchell]

We currently have a shortage of 97, 000 homes in Australia.
By 2026 this will grow to a shortage of 146, 000 homes.
Increasing shortages cause prices to go up, not down.
Also, everything from fuel, to materials, to vehicles and labour is getting more expensive.

[mysteriosovich]

Good points.
Still, house prices can't increase faster than salaries forever. That rubber band will snap sooner or later. I don't see it snapping on the 'salaries' end, I see it snapping on the 'house prices' end.

[Insight-.-]

This is because Australia was open to the overseas rich, buying residency visa's allowing them to buy Australian homes, to rent out to Australians. This visa has been stopped on Dec 23. Hopefully we will see the effects of this by June 24.

[ahmedrehim]

FHB who don't have mom/dad money are better of moving overseas

[stanlyqbrick]

I work for myself repairing in wealthy areas and my work demand has reduced by 50% over the last 6 months and i have not seen that before in 19 years (other than being locked down for covid) of working for myself. So yes the wealthy are over extended now as most are leveraged to the hilt. So one to two moves up in interest rates will bring about the crash. Hint: watch the boat sales and holiday homes sales websites for an uptick in sales. This will happen just before the crash as the over leveraged sell off their toys to stay afloat. I have watched for the last 6 months and just a slight uptick but that will change with the next rate rise.

[tailtaptailtap]

"How the Australian Housing Crash Will Happen" - Such a misleading title.

[xx]

Aust average is about twice of the US??? 400K ish there and 1 million for Melb/Sydney on approx 50-70K salaries here???? Debt is 1 trill Aust, and 34 Trill US and spiraling and personal CC debt and general debt is same going up and up YET, no crash or recession for over 30 years thanks to printing and this is sending everything up but with less real value... IMPLOSION DUE...

[lockl]

They have been increasing the housing bubble in Australia through high immigration.

[GerinPhils]

it cant collapse with 100k+ new immigrants being brought in every month

[MrMrmicah]

The crash will come from the fragility in the financial system, and the economic slowdown the housing market is creating. Banks are under capitalised. Every boom in history has ended in a bust eventually, and the bigger the boom the harder the bust.

[brettcrawford]

Federal governments have a choice. They can either bring in workers as immigrants who will possibly never own their own houses and need money from the government to survive or the Government can choose to bring in rich people who buy their own house 🏠 and hopefully get a job so they will less likely need government money to survive. As in the Federal governments choice is effectively to choose between turning Australia 🇦🇺 into a poverty stricken rathole where millions of people never own their own houses 🏘 and have to get money from the Federal government to survive or to try to have Australia 🇦🇺 be something better than a rathole. Anyway the government has chosen to make Australia 🇦🇺 a rathole so what people think does not really matter. The majority of new immigrants will not be winning the lotto to buy a house in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. Space aliens 👽 will not come from another solar system to give them money to buy a house in Australia. Thats just how it is.😊.

[plucky]

In Bitcoin the price of housing has crashed. In AUD housing has gone up. The problem is the currency debasement of AUD. How much does the RBA have in mortgage securities? This AUD based boom is funded by the RBA. What game are they playing?

[HamburgerHelperDeath]

Thank god we have 30 year fixed rate mortgages in the US. I have a 2.4% 30 year mortgage. No surprises with interest rate changes. That coupled with the cost of housing in Australia is why I didn’t stay in Australia after working there 4 years.

[brettcrawford]

Federal government had a 20 billion $ surplus. Pretty sure none of it went to paying down the debt. Common sense financially in a Federal government is prettymuch a fantasy that people hope for and never arrives.

[seaofcolour]

I think another problem is that the corporate sector has fooled successive governments into thinking we have a labour shortage .But if you research “ghost Jobs” you will discover that labour demand is over inflated and the skills shortage is a fallacy. Australian businesses always seem to look desperate for workers but don’t recognise overseas qualifications anyway and migrants who settle in Australia end up working in take away food delivery or driving taxis.

[Robert-xkqq]

They will force people to work at home, which will create isolation, then they will make heaps on flooding the market with cheaper renovated office's, and the ordinary investors will be forced to drop rent or sell up, or offer there sweetener to own a percentage, and eventually own more than you, hold on for the ride, first home owners, the crash will come, what goes up too fast will come down harder

[efnik]

Why have house stock numbers remained super low compared to demand for years!!! It’s a ludicrous mis-management of land resource and construction capacity in Australia!

The lack of supply has uneccesary driver of horrendous criminal price of property