Why We Can't Predict Earthquakes

Earthquakes have the power to devastate entire communities—a little advanced notice could make a world of difference with an impending earthquake. So why can't they be predicted? Join Rose Bear Don't Walk for a new episode of SciShow, and take a dive into the world of earthquake science!

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Original episodes:

[shoefresh]

In geology we often say that earthquakes don't kill people, structures do. This is somewhat anecdotal, but while we cannot forecast earthquakes reliably, we can be prepared for when they eventually come. Making sure building codes are up to standard and reflect local seismic hazard, routinely maintaining and surveying existing buildings and infrastructure, making sure civil authorities are prepared for the eventually of a strong earthquake, etc., these are the measures that actually save lives. It its important to raise awareness of the general public as well as decision makers for these important measures in areas of seismic hazard.

[icarusbinns]

I recall a 2020 Alaskan quake that Mom’s friend was able to warn her neighbors about. This woman takes in retired Iditarod sled dogs, so she has something like 20 ‘old’ huskies and malamutes. I guess the night before the quake, they flatly refused to curl up in their bed areas, and just formed a pile in the middle of the yard. TC called her neighbors and said “Hey, my dogs are acting weird. We might be in for something. Either lightning or shaking, get ready for both.” Fortunately, the warning was early enough (if vague as hell!) that the people were able to prepare some areas of their property. Like moving horses outside or getting fragile heirlooms protected.

I do still love the Sounders Quake. Where a 3.2 (?) quake was recorded as a surface tremor. Scientists were mildly freaking out since it was really unexpected, and a surface one. The epicenter? Was the field. The fans were so enthusiastic that they triggered a recorded surface quake!

[tessat]

During an earthquake, my cat was as gormless as he usually is about anything that he doesn't understand. He had been sleeping and was as surprised as the rest of us were when the earthquake hit. No sign of advanced warning. He also doesn't perceive any threat when he sees his sister getting her toenails cut. He'll just watch and grin without any foreknowledge that he is next up for getting his claws trimmed. He is 12 and we have been cutting his toenails for his entire life.

[sophiaruizuvalle]

Nice coincidence that this released September 1st when in México it's considered "earthquake season"
We know that they don't have a season but the two most devastating earthquakes in the last 40 years have been on September 19

[alisakomendova]

In the meanwhile I'm sitting here, in Czech Republic, where we had our first actual tornado this summer, thinking "Hmm, earthquake, maybe I should educate myself after all." 😅

[danielm]

As a kid growing up in So. CA, I remember regularly waking up minutes before nighttime earthquakes. One night I couldn’t sleep until the earthquake hit at 4:40AM. I couldn’t/wouldn’t be able to explain how or what… I just did…

[Leongon]

I was told the Valdivia's earthquake topped at 9.5 magnitude because that was how high the instruments at the time were able to read, so it was likely even higher.

[AdrianCuyubambaDiaz]

About 14 years ago my sister and I were playing with our hamsters, we put them on a chair and started shaking it repeatedly screaming "earthquake earthquake" and as we were doing so the 2007 peru earthquake began.
For years we thought we had the power to make earthquakes happen

[mridrick]

10 minutes prior to a 7.1 magnitude EQ reaching me from 200km away across the other side of my island, all birdlife went absolutely crazy (even the non-nocturnal birds woke up at 4:20am, yes we were still up drinking) . We wondered what was up until the slow rock from a distant EQ started. Still amazed to this day by their heads up to it today.

[a_real_jive_turkey]

"Hi, fox 6, My cows are producing less milk over the past few days and my chickens produced slightly different colored eggs than usual...well just the 1 did but I've got all the info I need to say with confidence that You may wanna let everyone know to expect an earthquake within the next 7-10days. It's gonna be a big'n too because my cat hasn't been cleaning itself near as much as usual. Don't say I didn't warn ya"

[thomaslinton]

To be accurate, the seven italian goverment employees were conviced of inaccuartely downplaying the risk of an earthquake six days before it happened.

[sophroniel]

My dad's a geologist (vulcanologist; he mapped the banks penninsula cone matrix). I grew up hearing, not just as most kiwis that "Wellington is overdue an earthquake" (which it is), but that *Christchurch* is overdue it's "big one". I did a project on it, actually.... in May 2010. And, unfortunately, what my dad always said was proven right... in September 2010 but, more devastatingly, on 22 Feb 2011, with a death toll of 185. It was drowned out from the media due to Japan having a devastating earthquake of their own not long after, but what people don't realise is that the Christchurch one was more *violent*, but because we don't have nuclear power and Christchurch's underwater geography isn't conducive to tsunamis (and we build in NZ for earthquakes) we didn't have anywhere near the death toll of Japan.
Earthquakes, and their aftermath, have been a dominant force in my life from the age of 16. I was involved in the Kaikora project, where the 2016 earthquake took out a main state highway and is only now getting back properly.
And then the mosque next to my high school was attacked.
And then White Island exploded.
And then a pandemic hit.
You only get one chance at life, dammit, and I'm going to do what I can to make sure we're better prepared in the future, like those tsunami stones in Japan everyone ignored. We can't have another CCTV ever again.

[regular-joe]

Love seeing the growth in skills and confidence as new hosts find their feet!!👍👌

[hassanhamdan]

Im watching this as huge earthquakes hit and might still hit our region in Syria, Turkey and Lebanon on this day

[Rabcup]

Please add [compilation] to the title when it is one! Longtime viewers see these mostly as reposted content. Not complaining just saying.

[melanezoe]

ICARUS will have to be a huge project. There have already been 136 quakes in the USA TODAY. Had one here today about a mile from my home in east Texas. A small 2.6 one. My cat and I slept through it, oblivious. In 1952, in Southern California, when I was 6, I was outdoors when the ground moved like ocean waves and knocked me down. In 1969, near Ventura, California, the dogs in my kennels all went berserk, barking, jumping, whining. 20 minutes later when I was looking out the window to see what was going on, the window ledge moved out from under my hands . So as far as pet warning goes, I’ve seen it both ways.

[nikkireynolds]

Not about science: Where does Hank get his shirts? Because the pattern matching for the checks is flawless and that isn't typical of ready made shirts.

[theophrastusbombastus]

I don't remember the whole affair at L'Aquila so don't quote me on that however I seem to recall that the problem wasn't predicting the earthquake: before the big one there had been numerous smaller earthquakes and authorities reassured the population urging them to stay indoors as those small shocks meant a big event would not come as the earth was discharging slowly.
So I think there were contradicting and misleading infos.

[TS]

Uhm, claiming that those Italian scientists were on trial for failing to predict an earthquake is rather inaccurate. It's a die hard misconception fueled by stereotypes on Italian laws.

They claimed infrastructures were safe from earthquakes of a given magnitude, which was not correct considering what happened to them.

[francispitts]

Having spent my entire adult life in a career as a K-9 handler mostly for search and rescue but I did work many years with other working K-9’s and so did my Father. Between police work and SAR 36 years have gone by and I’m still training my Labrador Retrievers for Human Cadaver and live rescue recovery and don’t see wanting to quit soon. It’s because I’m that happy working with them and I’m always learning something new and amazing. They have much more capacity and capabilities than what we’re seeing. It’s growing every year. My cadaver dog has easily found human remains in pretty deep water. Especially standing water. I pay close attention to what they do and what they are trying to tell me. They clue into some things long before we mere humans ever do. If my dogs suddenly wanted to get out of an area, I’m leaving immediately. I’m not questioning anything not for a micro second. I’m running right behind them.