Smerconish: The two reasons a presidential prediction can’t be made yet

CNN’s Michael Smerconish explains why the presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is too close to call. #CNN #News

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[davidyemm]

Something is very wrong with a voting system when the focus is on one state instead of All fifty.

[ColeCollinsCostance-ql]

No normal person would vote for Kamala Harris

[jockyoung]

It all depends on how many people actually vote. So VOTE

[elwerouno]

BLACK WOMAN FOR TRUMP WAVE 24❤️❤️🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸___

[kenyamccrary]

I trust Alan Lichtman’s predictions. 40 years being correct based on a formula.

[brothermine]

A third reason why the election is hard to predict is that the formula that states use to award their Electoral College Electors is winner-take-all in the swing states. Every state could instead use a formula that's winner-take-all if the margin of victory in the state isn't small, and otherwise divides the state's Electors _linearly_ among the top two candidates. With this formula, a small change of votes in a state could have only a small effect on the Electoral College... only one or two Electors would change. So there would rarely be an incentive to ask for a recount or commit vote-counting fraud or suppress voters from voting, and Presidential elections would become much easier to predict.
The only serious problem with the Electoral College system is the over-sensitivity of the simple winner-take-all formula to small changes of votes (in the swing states), and that problem can easily be solved by the modified formula described above.

[schoderfactory]

A "prediction can't be made"? It's the very definition of a prediction that you don't know it for sure. You can always make a prediction, until reality happens.

[KingBedlam]

Just FYI, if she’s winning Wisconsin and Michigan, she’s winning PA. Thanks for the horserace.

[marshasand]

I'm a Democrat and I've never participated in a poll. We don't know if most poll takers are Magat or Dem. The polls can't be as close or as accurate as they tell us

[jordanblake]

Alan Lichtman disagrees. He has never been wrong.

[Thomas-xysh]

“One candidate complaining of a fix?” COME ON MICHAEL. just fricking say Trump! Spineless.

[nancychandler]

These polls don't account for new people being registered to vote as we speak. Just Vote.

[jeffdavenport]

im not for anyone running on capital gains tax. busted my tail trying to get enough to retire on

[buckthrusthorn]

I keep telling my children of color this is a monumental time for our country. Kamala is here to save us as the first Black Woman president that is something to be proud of.

[TruthfulAllday]

WHAT ACCENT WILL KAMALA SHOW UP WITH😂😂😂😂I WANNA HEAR HER SWITCH IT UP BUT YOU KNOW IF SHE DOESNT HAVE AN ACCENT ITS GONNA BE THE TALK OF THE TOWN🤪🤪🤪🤪

[hissatsu]

"The reasons a presidential prediction can't be made yet"
Hold my keys.
- Allan Lichtman

[yokesBL]

😂 kamala keeps repeating lies and the commentators wont call her out...comical

[enriquehernandez]

He said state law prohibits counting mailing ballots before election day, yeah the law you passed few month before the election on 2020.

[arlethapappas]

The criminal shouldn’t be allowed to run or hold any office.

[relaxgood]

I believe Harris is further ahead than what is being reported. With all the new people registering to vote Women Young People Independents Seniors over 65 Republicans for Harris the polls will be a flop just like in 2022.