Choices and Challenges in Pre-Election Polling

This talk was given by Scott Keeter, senior survey advisor at the Pew Research Center.

Pre-election polling is a specialized application of survey research that faces most of the same challenges as more general surveys but also a number of additional ones. It is also one of the few applications of survey research where an objective reality – the actual outcome of the election – will be available for judging the accuracy of the survey. This presentation will describe the landscape of contemporary pre-election polling, including who is doing it, what kinds of samples are being used, what modes are employed, how likely voters are identified, how the polls are weighted and how accurate pre-election polls have been in recent years.