The Next Housing Market Crash (Worse Than 2008)

The YouTube Creator Academy:

THE HOUSING MARKET:
Redfin just reported that “the median U.S. home sale price fell 3.3% in March, to $400,528” - which, was the largest year-over-year drop since 2012.

This is just the AVERAGE throughout the entire country, which means - other areas are seeing SUBSTANTIALLY WORSE declines - for instance, Boise Idaho has fallen 15.4% from a year ago with 78.8% fewer pending home sales, Austin, Texas is down 13.7%, Sacramento is down 11.9%, San Jose is down 10.5%, and, Oakland is down 9.7%.

NEW MORTGAGE FEES:
A new rule was announced that would “force homebuyers with good credit scores to pay higher mortgage rates and fees to subsidize those with riskier credit ratings who are also buying houses.” Although, in order to understand what’s going on, you first need to familiarize yourself with a term called “Loan Level Price Adjustments.”

These were introduced 15 years ago, after the mortgage crisis, to compensate for risks associated with lending money. In January of this year, NEW changes were put in place in an effort to level the playing field between those with GOOD CREDIT and those with BAD CREDIT - and, starting May 1st, the biggest discounts will be given to those with BAD CREDIT.

Here is the BEFORE / AFTER:

The largest changes really come from those with good, but not GREAT credit, in between 700 and 780 - and, this heat map really shows who’s paying the most:

Keep in mind, those with BAD CREDIT still pay more in fees than someone with good credit - but, people with good credit now get less benefit than they did before, while those with bad credit no longer don’t need to pay as much.

THE DEBT CEILING:
The United States is quickly running out of money, at - at current estimates - this could happen as early as June 2023. In terms of what could happen, JP Morgan believes that “they expect the debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, and that the debate over both the ceiling and the federal funding bill would run "dangerously close" to final deadlines.”

As the New York Times pointed out, “breaching the debt limit would lead to a first-ever default for the United States, creating financial chaos in the global economy. It would also force American officials to choose between continuing assistance like Social Security checks….and paying interest on the country’s debt."

Let me know what you think about this in the comment sections - or, if you're actually reading this (I have no idea who actually makes it this far down), feel free to comment 'LOBSTER.' It'll be totally random and no one will have any clue what you're talking about - but, it'll be our little secret. Thanks!

My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:

[nicolasbenson]

I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2024. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

[cloudyblaze]

The current system is completely unsustainable. The only reason it continues 'as if' is lending and debt. Lending for healthcare, for homes, for education, and plain old credit cards. trouble is, when the bottom falls out, the lenders get bailed out and consolidated, and everyone else loses their shirt.

[drtyhay]

Oh no, a 3% drop in home prices. I'm with Louis Rossmann on this one, property prices need to drop more like 50% in most places to actually be at where they should. Also you should not be punished for working hard for years to get yourself a good credit score, just to be knocked back a peg.

[allthingsiro]

If we look at the US debt ceiling issue, it just blows my mind that lowering spending & staying below the limit is never an option. In personal finance this kind of situation would lead to bankruptcy.

[brandonwilliams]

Me not watching the news. But i watch these videos getting more information than any news stations 😂

[LMFAO]

We're gonna tax working class home owners instead of taxing the billionaire class? One percent of that net worth would make a massive difference.

[BagsNBaguettes_]

“nothing makes sense anymore” - the most accurate Graham quote ever said. We are living in some interesting times! 😅

[mattgt]

How evil do you have to be to punish hard working responsible people? All to help the most irresponsible lazy people.

[Centuari]

Bro you gotta shut down the scammers in your comments

[PadillaKids]

In many hot towns in NJ we’re still having major bidding wars, waving inspections, appraisals, etc. We are constantly being asked for best and final within days of listing. Huge disappointment for us wanting to buy.

[jamesmorrison]

I have been a home inspector for 21 years and work with Realtors every day. I told one guy I know that I believe prices will drop 40% in the next 18 months. Today's 400K houses with hit 240K and people will be upside down in their mortgages. Short sales and people dropping off the keys to their houses at the bank and just abandoning their property are already happening.

[nissanzenkiboy]

I give up. Trying to buy a house I can’t save because everything has doubled constantly working to try to save and it’s impossible. I hate this economy I don’t want to rent I want to buy. I make more than my parents did at 30 and they already had a beautiful house. And I can’t even get close…

[seahorsefencing]

Both parties immediately agree on one thing ''raise the debt ceiling' because that's their paycheck

[olimphus]

There’s a lot of talk about crashing prices but they just keep rising.

[DjStiv]

Speak on air bnb if you can and renting a room and stuff. Curious on your opinion and stuff

[rogerstone]

If interest rates keep rising the average home buyer will not be able to buy a home. I feel exceptionally lucky I started investing in my early 40s and compounded my income to create more cash flow. Major thanks to Trisha Jean Webb my F.A, I grew to a 7 figure well-diversified portfolio having exposure to different prolific investments mainly stocks, bonds and high yield dividend funds. she is super helpful to a lot of beginners out there.

[hectoralejandro]

“This policy sounds unbelievable, because it _is._ This is why it’s not what it sounds like” *proceeds to describe exactly what everyone was complaining about*

[conordrogalis]

I hate knowing that my generation, Gen Z, will have to fix this countries broken debt ceiling in the future.

[hannahdonald]

“There’s more and more of a concern that incoming data is revealing that the Fed might be a little bit behind the curve than maybe they expected heading into this year, ” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green. How are other people in this market raking in over $350k gains within months.

[Nona-wyvd]

San Diego is still 🥵! Bidding wars and people waiving inspections and appraisals.