Macron's Speech Weakens The West's Unity Against Putin | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Macron calling on NATO not to humiliate Putin and Russia in the war is problematic.

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi, everybody. Happy Monday, and a Quick Take to start off your week. I am Ian Bremmer. And the latest in the Russia war. Over the weekend, French President Emmanuel Macron, calling on NATO, the international community, as we occasionally call it, though a narrower version thereof, not to humiliate Putin and Russia in the war. And furthermore, Macron saying that he is willing to, interested in, wants to, facilitate negotiations after the fighting concludes between the West and Russia. There's a lot going on here.

I consider it a problematic public statement because it implies that the West is not holding together well. And therefore, that if Putin can hang on, that there is more of a divide to take advantage of that there wasn't really in the first two, three months of the fighting since February 24th. I will say that privately, the German government is very much of a piece with the French government in wanting to try to find a way to bring the war to an end as soon as possible. And if that means sort of giving up some negotiating space to Putin and pressuring the Ukrainians to give up some additional territory beyond what was taken before February 24th, then so be it.

But that is absolutely not the American position, the UK position, the Polish position, the Baltic position, the Finnish position, the Swedish position. And perhaps most importantly right now, it's absolutely not the Ukrainian position, and they're of course the ones doing the fighting.

So what exactly is Macron thinking about? Well, first of all, purely power politics. He's looking at what he thinks is likely to be the outcome, and therefore being ahead of others in identifying that space that he thinks the conflict is going to be frozen. He think the Russians are de facto going to take more territory than they had before. They'll keep the land bridge, they'll annex a bunch of it and that you have to live with that reality. So why not do it earlier rather than later? That's the first point that Macron is making. Again, that undermines the Ukrainian position. It weakens the West. It makes it more likely that Putin persists rather than not. But if he thinks that's the inevitable outcome, then he's occupying that space before others do. Secondly, he recognizes that the West cannot make Russia into North Korea. That no matter how tough the sanctions are going to be from the United States and Europe, that the Russians will export a large amount of oil, of gas, of food, of fertilizer.

And if the West doesn't want to buy it directly, they'll pay higher prices and effectively buy it indirectly. And so Macron, and this is interesting because France's own economy is less dependent on Russia than most of the other European economies, especially in terms of energy because France powers most of its electricity from nuclear energy, which is not the case for other major European economies. So they don't have the gas and the oil floats that the Germans do, for example, the Poles, the Italians do, but the French certainly are much more willing to go their own way politically and economically.

And again, if that means that they're going to be ahead of where they think the Europeans are mostly going to be in six months' or a year's time, then Macron looks like more of a leader. And then furthermore, it is Macron individually trying to put himself in a leadership role that Scholz has a coalition. The Italian Prime Minister Draghi is gone in short order. And when that happens, it's going to be a very weak government, and probably a procession of very weak governments, Boris Johnson, of course, facing a no confidence vote, literally in several hours of shambolic number of scandals that he's been facing and been driving apart his own Conservative Party.

So if you're in Europe, Macron says, "I get to be the leader. And if I'm the leader and moving us in a role that is in between the United States and Russia, in between long term, the United States and China, that's a stronger position for me to be."

#QuickTake #Macron #UkraineWar

[allanritz]

Macron is turning into a French version of Neville Chamberlain. Typical of the French.

[williamoh]

No wonder the French lost all their wars in the last 200 years.

[sjpeters]

What a short memory France has about naked aggression and the need to stand up to it early. Terrible. Realpolitik be damned. The French and Germans are rewarding the principle that "What's mine is mine, what's yours is negotiable". France and more so Germany had a chance to be on the right side of history and they blew it.

What kind of agreement can the Russians make that can possibly be respected? Budapest Memorandum? Minsk 1? Minsk 2? Sounds like Ribbentrop - Molotov agreement. Disgraceful.

[sixtwo]

Macron drank his Vichy water to summon his inner Daladier....

[dpg]

France got one thing right: investing in nuclear energy. If the other European countries had done that, Europe would be energy independent, and we wouldn't be in this mess.

[williambustos]

Macron seems to have a lot in common with Nivel Chamberlain

[callmebyyourname]

So unfortunate that Macron made that statement. Very unproductive.

[theraven]

How much of Paris or Berlin are they willing to cede to Russia?

[marydupree]

macron didn't do so well talkin to pootin before the war

[unfixablegop]

"Not humiliating Russia" sounds reasonable, but it really avoids saying what the goal should be. So I agree that it was an unhelpful statement. I don't agree though that this made the chance that Putin would give up any worse, because that chance was always zero.

[veryinteresting]

Never tell anyone outside of the family what you're thinking again.

[willybillyshow]

Maybe Macron can give a piece of France in exchange to Ukraine as compensation for the territory they have to concede Russia?

[collinbording]

Don't let Macron speak for the west.

[williamson]

We should give Putin a way out in Georgia, maybe he will be satisfied..
We should give Putin a way out in Syria, maybe he will be satisfied.
We should give Putin a way out in Chechnya, maybe he will be satisfied.
We should give Putin a way out in Ukraine, maybe he will be satisfied.
Oh yeah, what a great strategy. When France gets into trouble they know the US will bail them out.

[bowlampar]

Provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine is a humiliation and direct slap on Poop-Tin, Macron advised against provoking Russia further in aiding Ukraine defenses, not to further inflame a 'fragile' situation more in Europe caused by American.

[canteluna]

Geopolitics, like big business, is always a game of the prisoner's dilemma. Ideally, the West needs to depend less on trade with illiberal nations and incentivize them toward more liberal economies and improving human rights (at least not murdering journalists, persecuting the religious, or committing genocide). That is about all we can do. We can't expect nations to act on principle alone when they have economic interests at stake.

[luisortega]

I somehow remember "Freedom Fries".

[joem]

I got punched out last night in the pub. I decided not to humiliate the poor guy and left.

[nait]

LOL - Macron's Speech Weakens The West's Unity Against Putin!!!

[govinda]

This defense of Ukraine can only be accomplished with more countries getting off their hands such as Isreal and the Saudis. If anything to send the message but these countries are only looking forward to their relationship with Putler. One Iron Dome from Isreal and raising oil production from the Saudis would be nice.