Will we grab the universe? Grabby aliens predictions.

In the previous video, we talked about why humanity seems to have appeared very early in the universe: among the first civilizations that could ever appear. Earliness constitutes a riddle. It makes humanity’s situation seem rather mysterious. Robin Hanson, who introduced the idea of the great filter, solves this riddle by postulating that civilizations that he calls “grabby” will soon fill the universe. As anticipated, grabby aliens are the main assumption of a detailed model describing how such aliens expand and distribute in the universe. The model makes many interesting predictions, such as when we’ll meet grabby aliens, our chances of hearing alien messages, and becoming an interplanetary civilization ourselves. It also answers why we don’t see aliens yet, considering the universe’s large number of stars and galaxies. These predictions are the topic of this video.

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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Chapters:

0:00 - Introduction
1:50 - 3D simulation
2:48 - The power law
4:20 - Estimating "k"
5:03 - Estimating "n"
5:37 - Estimating "s"
9:52 - Model predictions
15:02 - SETI and our chance of becoming grabby
18:15 - Wrapping up
19:16 - Patreon & channel membership

[RationalAnimations]

This video is 20 minutes long. If we added an opening and an ending, it would be the length of a typical anime episode. If you want to support our work and see more, uhm, anime episodes () you can do so by:

[justicaralric]

That animated model of grabby civilisations expanding looked exactly like every game of stellaris I've ever played, so this checks out.

[cody]

Imagine spanning thousands of solar systems in your home galaxy in which you thought you had alone and had always wished to find a neighbor, only to discover ancient ruins of that neighbor and learning that they calculated their chances of demise before they advanced to your current stage.

[ItsKierancraft]

As a grabby alien myself, I'm glad you are helping raise awareness for the cause

[KtosoX]

"less than half of a galaxy to a million galaxies" is an insane range, and throwing it around like it's no big deal feels surreal.

[Oliisawesome]

If I ever hear about these theories again I’ll always imagine grabby aliens as coloured shibas. Great videos!

[MarshmallowRadiation]

Sometime in the near future, humanity receives messages from a nearby civilization. Peaceful communication is established, and against all odds it seems that both species are at comparable technological levels. "Weren't you scared to contact us?" say the aliens, "We could have been a grabby civilization." The human ambassador shakes his head and replies, "the odds of two grabby civilizations emerging in the same galaxy are incredibly low."

[WaruWicku]

Kurzgesagt meets Isaac Arthur... This is wild, I'm so glad to be here for this channels beginnings. Thanks for the hard work and for blowing my mind ❤️

[DJPeachCobbler]

Incredible work. Adorable animation, backed by legitimate research into fascinating subjects. You built a gingerbread house on a foundation of cold hard facts. Love it. Subbed.

[KoneSkirata]

Stunning work! At this rate, you're destined to become a grabby youtuber 😏

[MrConductor]

So either we become intergalactic dominating spacefarers with little rivalry, or we encounter aliens soon and potentially meet our early end? I see this as an absolute win! Great video.

[MichalStYTA]

This approach to Fermi Paradox seems like a real breakthrough. It is somewhat related to "humans are firstborn" solution, but extended to the whole universe as opposed to single galaxy.

[troylong]

First off, amazing videos! I love them! Secondly some food for thought:

I think the assumption that the growth is always positive has a massive impact on the results. While parts of this model seem viable, it doesn't seem to account for the "grabbyness of the species involved". Doing so should result in oscillations that shift expected values dramatically.

There are economic limits to expansion with any species and rapid expansion generally requires more resources than slow expansion. Rapid expansion of a "greedy" species would be followed by a rapid growth rate in population and infrastructure that depletes resources available in their expansion bubble. Depleting these resources renders an area of the universe un-usable and fuels a greater need to expand. Tracking this need to acquire new resources as the required expansion velocity needed to fuel expansion is exponential. It can surpass the speed of light, and become impossible. Thus, civilizations that are "too grabby" would not be able to achieve sustainable rapid expansion placing an upper limit on expansion below the speed of light. I think this might be called the "light trap" theory.

Civilizations could expand if they did not grow as quickly, but these would be less grabby by nature, and would imply less need/desire for rapid expansion. I think this is called the "(ecologically) green alien" theory.

The limit on speed, and the impact on available resources available at any time makes this process much more oscillatory than one of steady growth. Oscillation of occupied zones would make our chances of seeing a civilization smaller. Imagine if a cancerous cells could die on it's own. It is just as likely to exist, but less likely to be observed. Factoring in these economic constraints, make us less special, and aliens more likely to exist. It's the cake and eating it, too. :)

[NuclearTopSpot]

This feels like watching PBS SpaceTime but with less talking head (and less over my head lol) and more adorable. I love it.

[arnaudnicolas]

The production quality of your content is insanely high. The concepts you present are complex yet the explanation is so cleverly crafted, I watched the alien ones them multiple times and each times I gained a new level of understanding. Please, keep doing that.

[litrpg]

This channel is going to blow up, man.

[sherluck]

The level of logic and presentation in your videos is amazing.

Wishing you success from Saudi ❤

[rat_king-]

I cannot stop watching this happy pupper

[kuuro_]

Been telling people for a while that advanced civilizations were one in thousands of galaxies rare, awesome to now have charts to elaborate further! Amazing work

[pontdupont]

just seeing this in my recommended made my entire day. I've been waiting for this