TROPICAL UPDATE: Big Tropical Development Looks Possible...

In today's tropical weather forecast, big tropical development looks likely due to a favorable MJO environment coming paired with climatology. The last couple of GFS model runs show a hurricane and even a 943mb Major category 4 or 5 hurricane forming up in the gulf of Mexico. So, in today's video, we'll be digging deeper and looking at what may be coming.

Video Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:30 - Watching The Caribbean & Gulf
10:21 - Latest NHC Outlook
2:15 - Something Big Is Brewing
7:21 - Orginal 12z GFS Run
10:49 - Latest Canadian & ECMWF Model
13:17 - AI Model
14:30 - The Ensembles & VPA
16:45 - Spaghetti Plots
17:57 - Favorable MJO Coming
19:25 - Outro/Promotion

Checkout My Website:

Subscriber Here For More Weather Content!!!!!

Join this channel to get access to perks:

Sacramento Weather Center Group:

WeatherForce Discord Server:

Disclaimer: All of my videos and live streams are for entertainment purposes only, and to discuss raw operational model guidance and its ensembles, I'm also comparing models too. So please seek official sources like the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, or The Weather Channel for more detailed and accurate information.

My Social Media:

[apemarie]

I dont understand sometimes....if ppl dont enjoy watching or if they are going to be rude about an "OPINION"..., DONT COMMENT OR WATCH!. Sinple as that. Stop complaining when its something you clicked on and watched in its entirety. Its like going to mcdonalds and ordering a big mac, eating all but 1 bite and demanding a full refund...Smh 😂🤦‍♀️

[TexasNightRider]

Just Discovered This Channel. I Subscribed Because There Is A 100% Chance That I Will Continue Watching. Appreciate The Long Term Forecast.

[Wabby]

Man don’t worry about these people and their complaining! You’re very upfront that this is simply what the models are showing and it’s your own personal opinion on how it might actually play out. I greatly appreciate the information because it gives me and others a chance to get gas, food, water, check my roof, windows, generators, etc. and start to form a plan 3, 4, 5 days prior to the masses who are waiting for their local weather channel to tell them 3-5 days before. if And if it doesn’t play out the way the models show, those are things I should probably do anyway! This just serves as a great reminder.

[DavidIrthum]

I am presently living in South Louisiana and I value your forecasts and predictions predictions.

[suzanneh.]

I SO APPRECIATE YOUR BROADCAST, DAVID, AS DO MANY OTHERS WHO LIKE HAVING AN EARLY HEADS-UP ON ANY & ALL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF, SO WE CAN HAVE TIME TO PREPARE!
THIS IS POTENTIALLY LIFE SAVING INFORMATION AND AS A RESIDENT OF THE GULF COAST & SURVIVOR OF HURRICANE MICHAEL (OCT 10, 2018) I AM SO GRATEFUL TO HAVE FOUND THIS CHANNEL!
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK DAVE!

[whitedovenc]

You doing a great job David. I always enjoy your thorough updates. ❤

[sjmeola]

David: I love your channel. I rarely miss a video,

[sharonerwin]

Thanks for the information. You do a great job. Keep it up we need more people like you.

[karenomalley]

Good job on looking forward. People need to stop being scared, get their head out of the sand, get prepared.
These concerns are validated given the temperatures in the waters, and its hurricane season helloooo.
Thank you for your devotion and effort to trying to warn people to safety before it’s too late late.

[Ranewolf]

Hi David! Just wanted to reiterate how much I appreciate your dedicated service in providing all of us with the latest and full spectrum content & information on storms, and more importantly, any & all upcoming storms too!! You already know that my son is a quadriplegic (paralyzed from the neck down) and we NEED as MUCH advanced notice as humanly possible because it’s a huge deal for us to pack up and get out of the area if a bad storm is heading our way, (& even worse if we’re stuck to try and get thru it at home) but we would not have that added time without your reporting and updates which HELPS US make the necessary preparations for doing what is best for us. What’s the worst that could happen?…that it ends up being a fizzled out nothing-burger? Then even better! Besides, who wants to find out 2-3 days before a big storm or hurricane is coming anyway? Not me! The whole point of storm tracking is to keeping an eye out for those storms lurking around the corner, and receive MORE advanced notice- & the more notice, the BETTER! If anyone has a problem with HOW YOU choose to run YOUR OWN CHANNEL, then perhaps they should find someone else to watch because how I see it, your reporting is not only extremely invaluable, but immensely appreciated!! I know a few of your viewers are a bit prickly because I myself have been attacked by two of them regarding my comment that I made TO YOU personally a while back (which threw me for a loop) so I know how rotten some people are, and can be. 😩 But they aren’t going to deter ME from doing or saying whatever I want! 🤨 (Obviously)

One more thing, like my sweet southern Cherokee grandmother once said to me when I was feeling really bad & actually cried about what others where saying about me many years ago at one time in my life, and my grandmothers words shocked me! I’ll never forget it as I cried to her about it, & she turned to me & said (in her sweet soft spoken voice), “F*ck em all Sherry, f* ck em all!” I almost fell off my chair!! And that was the first and last time I had EVER heard her use a swear word OR ever say anything negative about ANYONE- but she’s been right all along- so although she’s no longer here with us, 😇her words and her principles are! And I can still hear her strong southern accent loud and clear! So in true “Doris Morning Glory” fashion David, I pass this on to you: “F*ck em all David…f*ck em al!” 😆 If anything, I hope that you at least get a chuckle out of that!! And NEVER let them rain on your parade, steal your light OR your thunder! After all, you do report on the weather! 😉 ✨✌🏽💜

[jenc]

Thank you for providing this information 😊

[josiequintela]

Love your videos!!! Can't wait to see something coming to Miami ...

[mercyvaldes]

Thank you !! Love your channel always watching you are the best!

[BabsAllen]

Pensacola, getting a little worried, but I'm ready.

[colleenpriest]

Pretty good presentation David. Agree, like I said before, def keep your eyes on the Gulf! I noticed that system in the Gulf last night. Also, I think that "IF" this system stays true, the timing maybe adjusted or fluctuate before or after the 26th, BUT, I believe there will be something spewing out from the Gulf period!! Great job David. Thanks for posting

[tanjawilliams]

New Subscriber. Thanks for the update.

[davidleyt]

Wassup david! This is definitely one of those gfs 18z fantasy runs, but contributes to the overall trend this late September.

[SoilToSoul]

This is so far out, i'm gonna hope it is wrong. Thanks for the rest of the update David!

[dubtroy]

I'm glad u show far out look we need to no that for sure

[aaliyahstar]

The Central American Gyre is known to spit out monsters late September early October so it wouldn’t be so far fetched at this point.