Putin’s Gambit: Why He Chose War and How it Will End

Thomas Graham ─ Putin’s Gambit: Why He Chose War and How it Will End

Thomas Graham is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a cofounder of the Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies program at Yale University and sits on its faculty steering committee. He is also a research fellow at the MacMillan Center at Yale. He has been a lecturer in global affairs and political science since 2011, teaching courses on U.S.-Russian relations and Russian foreign policy, as well as cybersecurity and counterterrorism. Graham was special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007, during which he managed a White House-Kremlin strategic dialogue. He was director for Russian affairs on the staff from 2002 to 2004.

[andrekeefer]

Why was the Minsk agreement not addressed in this presentation?

[ShashankData]

It's actually insanely cool that we can watch stuff like this for free today. What a world we live in

[lidiasiorek]

Ukraine was NOT to be enrolled into NATO. Germany and France strongly objected to this plan. It was off the table long time ago.
Great Britain, USA and Russia had signed agreement to keep Ukraine border intact for giving up nuclear weapon. These are very important points that were not mentioned in this speech.

[ChristianWhiteGuy]

Shame on the US! The US has no dog in the fight and should be leading the arguments for peace.

[saysaylor]

Mr Graham seems to be inconsistent in his views presented here. On one hand he admits this war has been proving that Russia is weak, but on the other his whole rhetoric is built on the assumption that Russia isn’t weak.
Some mind maps need to be rewritten perhaps

[rogerr]

He says he takes with a grain of salt any military expert’s view of what is going on. Presumably, an academic’s view of the war doesn’t have to be taken with a grain of salt?

[pfefferle]

That is quite an audacious claim by the Professor that only the US is in a position to negotiate European security with Russia.

[aristrofilas]

Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs' mission is to promote a just and peaceful world through research, teaching, and public engagement. Remember?

[thomascoxe]

Interesting that he didn't even mention why and how this conflict started.

[widescreennavel]

Um, this is pretty strange point of view, it's the view of a war as seen from Mars.
The man said it was hard to figure out what the US strategy is. I mean, really?

[frontview]

Lets trust the Council on Foreign Relations shall we, and let our brains fall out!!!

[sparky]

This certainly hasn't aged well. The "distinguished" scholar apparently gets his facts from the mainstream media and like a crow too clever by half, falls into an intellectual trap!

[ltmund]

If you can state the pretext for Russias invasion without spending significant time covering the Minsk agreements then I can come to only two conclusions: you don't really understand or you don't want others to understand.

[TotalRookie_LV]

Not filled gas storage was no coincidence, it _only_ happened in those cases, where Russian / Kremlin's companies directly or through subsidiaries owned those gas facilities. This energy crisis was intentionally designed.

[rjbjr]

What makes the wheat grow and ripen makes the tanks get stuck in the mud. So, we have both a wheat and tank shortage. I'm for the wheat, and forget about replacing the tanks.

[fredricsod]

My interpretation of what Thomas Graham is arguing is that Putin is just one of many leaders striving for the future and prosperity of his country. And that the concern about NATO expansion and willingness to threaten Russia was honestly meant and the reason for the attack on Ukraine. Does Graham entirely exclude the alternative explanation that Putin rather, like many authoritarian leaders, is deeply troubled by extensive expressions of democracy at close range (Ukraine and Belorussia) that could easily spread to Russia's own population and thus threaten his mafia clan's unlimited wealth and power?

[svenno]

Yes, Merkel and Hollande kept Ukraine from joining in 2008, but there has been close cooperation between NATO members and the Ukraine after 2014 in the form of military maneuvers, training and equipping forces etc. This can not be disregarded.

[Dylandog]

Russia doesn't need a "buffer zone" if it does not have aggressive neighbors!! While I have a huge respect for Thomas Graham's analysis, I think he frequently bends over backwards to accommodate the Putin Regime Mentality. Are we really to take so much to heart the 19th century expansionist ambitions of what amount to a Mafia gang of profiteers? Can we not be a little more optimistic and hope for regime change after this war that is going so disastrously for the Russian side at the moment? If we can exercise a little patience while maintaining steady pressure with armaments and sanctions there is every reason to believe Putin will not survive long to remain in charge.

[squealerpig]

I totally disagree. Putin is not nearly so amenable to "serious discussion" as this speaker suggests with his 20/20 hindsight. Speaking to Russia/Putin privately without our allies is a great way to erode trust in the USA.

[MFA]

Not a word about the Maidan coup, the behaviour of the Zelenski regime and the violation of the Minsk agreement. Instead they stick to Western propaganda, leaving out context.