Does Climate Change Cause Extreme Weather?

What role does climate change play in extreme weather?

Fluctuations in weather happen all the time. But sometimes, those fluctuations can get extreme, making disasters like hurricanes and heatwaves more intense. What role does climate change play in extreme weather?

ABOVE THE NOISE is a show that cuts through the hype and investigates the research behind controversial and trending topics in the news. Hosted by Myles Bess and Shirin Ghaffary.

*NEW VIDEOS EVERY OTHER WEDNESDAY*

SUBSCRIBE by clicking the RED BUTTON above.
Follow us on Instagram @kqedabovethenoise

Extreme weather is on the rise. A recent study found that worldwide, there were almost two and half times more extreme weather events in the first decade of this century than in the 1980s. To tease out the relationship between climate change and extreme weather, scientists use something called attribution science. This technique breaks down how much climate change influenced the event versus normal variations in weather. To do this successfully, researchers use climate models. They’re basically computer programs that simulate how the Earth’s climate will change over time. Essentially, 2 models are created. Model 1 -- the world without humans burning fossil fuels. And model 2, a world like ours now, where we do burn fossil fuels.

In general, climate change models can’t tell us if climate change is the cause of any particular extreme weather event, but they do indicate that climate change is making those events more severe. Climate change is causing higher sea levels and warmer waters, and that's leading to stronger hurricanes and heavier rainfall. Going forward, the overwhelming scientific consensus is that if climate change continues at its current rate, extreme weather will only get more extreme.

What is extreme weather?
Extreme weather is when a weather event is significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.

What is climate change?
A change in global or regional climate patterns, in particular a change apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels.

What is climate attribution science?
The effort to scientifically demonstrate which mechanisms are responsible for observed changes in the Earth's climate.

SOURCES:
Natural Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Public Health

Liability for Climate Change

Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

How We Use Climate Models

National Climate Change Assessment Report

FOR EDUCATORS

About KQED
KQED, an NPR and PBS affiliate in San Francisco, CA, serves Northern California and beyond with a public-supported alternative to commercial TV, Radio, and web media. Funding for Above the Noise is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Silver Giving Foundation, Stuart Foundation, and William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

[TheNicolexoxo]

is no one else going to mention the fact that Edna Mode is smoking a cigarette?

[furkell]

Even a small change in temperature (like less than 1Cº), is a LOT of extra energy added, because we are heating the entire earth.

[Imperiused]

Good video. I subscribed a while back after seeing an ad on Youtube, but this is the first video I've seen. I think you guys hit on all the important points here. Especially with the differentiation between climate and weather. I (here in Ohio) find myself having to often explaining to conservatives that a particularly harsh winter is more directly to blame on the polar vortex, while explaining to liberals that a very mild and warm winter is caused more by a strong El Nino effect than global warming. The only thing I think was lacking was maybe an explanation on how global warming changes weather patterns in different ways for different places. A lot of people have the misconception that global warming means everywhere is supposed to be hotter. But while this may be true for some areas, other areas may become colder over the long term as wind patterns and currents change in response to the global temperature rise. Or both, like how the spring and autumn seasons will shrink for our temperate climates resulting in longer and more extreme winters and summers.

[AboveTheNoise]

Thanks for watching! Please leave us some comments below.

[nonomusic]

I love how beyond the noise is participating and adressing concerns in the comments!!! Keep up the great work guys!!!

[derrickthewhite]

argg! I felt like too much time was spent on the hype itself and not enough on the actual models and studies. We're back to saying "theory says so", without any data. Yes, models are important to science, but when explaining things its important to demonstrate why we believe these models are correct.

Thank you for trying to stay sane about the whole thing though.

[soggy]

I would love a video delving into the statistics of climate models; putting human influence in an understandable reference frame compared to natural influences (especially including global trends over millenia).

I seem to see people arguing that humans are too insignificant compared to natural carbon emissions (volcanoes, wildfires, etc) or that THIS "global warming" is part of the eons long cycle that gave us ice ages as well as temperate ages. I'm not sure how much of each claim is true, and how much is just obscured facts.

[DracoPerfection]

You should make a video on the reversal of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and certain cancers shown in studies from people like Ornish, Kempner, and Essylsten by placing them on a whole foods plant based diet

[inmzsdt]

great video. also, is Katrina really Edna from the Incredibles?

[poetmaggie]

Well the rules for severe weather are pretty clear, the climate has to be doing those things to generate sever weather.

[eatonkuntz]

Why are there no videos explaining how rising temperatures cause droughts? Seems to me warmer ocean temperatures would mean more rain and more humidity. What am I missing here?

[joshmongerson]

Cut meat and dairy out of your diet if you care about climate change, or at least make changes to reduce your consumption. Animal agriculture emits more greenhouse gas emissions than all of transportation combined. The guardian just released a good piece discussing how a vegan diet is the single most important thing you can do to help stop climate change. Vegan is the future y’all, get on board.

[tsuchan]

Both :-) We clearly have to combat climate change. But unless we're proposing to be King Knut standing against the tide, we'd better learn how to deal with extreme weather conditions better than today.

[erick_fernandez_]

Bahaha! The Snowball!!!! LoL. That's so stereotypically correct of a political "argument".

[georgeapplegate]

First you say emphatically that weather is not climate, but then claim that extreme weather is. You imply that this is because extreme weather events have increase by citing EM-DAT, which is a measure of increasing self-reported _damage_ caused by events, not an increase in the severity or frequency of event themselves. Actual measures of the frequency and severity of extreme weather events shows an _overall_ decreasing trend, not increasing. Harvey marked and end to the longest absence in major landfall hurricanes in history, over a decade.

You also must appreciate storm category inflation. A century ago major hurricanes were categorized based solely on weather station data, so one of the weather stations it passed over had to record high enough sustained winds to reach a category. Today they use of aircraft and satellite observations, coupled with computer models, is how strength is assessed. If the models say that any part of the storm should _in theory_ be reaching the criteria for a high category, that's how it's labeled, even if no weather station ever sees those conditions. This happened in 2016 when hurricane Matthew was labeled Category 5 even though no weather station saw it as more than Category 3. Had it formed a century ago, it would instead have been labeled Category 3, and probably not even that since the weather station that recorded it as Category 3 didn't exist then. Something similar happened in Australia in 2015 where a landfall "Category 5" tropical cyclone, Marcia, inexplicably did almost no damage - weather stations recorded it as only Category 2.

You say there is an "overwhelming scientific consensus is that if climate change continues it its current rate, extreme weather will only get more extreme." This is simply false. While there are some scientists who have made this claim, that doesn't make it the consensus, let alone the "overwhelming" consensus. If there is an overwhelming scientific consensus, it is that all of human activity likely _contributes_ to climate, although there is no consensus on whether the magnitude of that contribution is large or small. Read the Bray surveys of climate scientists, not the claims made by Cook & Oreskes (a psychologist and a science historian) who are only guessing at what climate scientists think without actually surveying them. The actual consensus among climate scientists if close to the consensus among climate skeptics.

[scarletletter]

Which should be focused on curbing climate change of adjusting to more frequent extreme weather events? I say both.

[lasoloz]

We should focus on slowing down climate change, but we should not forget extreme weather as well. And there is a super easy way to help Earth a little bit and our consumer world always forgets it: we shouldn't buy so much stuff and shouldn't drive almost empty cars.

[commonsense]

What caused the storm that caused, The Night of the Big Wind in Ireland and UK in 1839?

[CHJoe]

I'm glad this exists, but I'm not the demo. Good work though :)

[p.pinchelette]

I'm glad I found this channel, actually the entire PBS channels are cool.