NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup

This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
02:27 NVIDIA Earnings
08:12 Growth Vs Value
11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth
14:02 Yield Curve Steepening
17:40 High Yield Spreads
19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession
23:00 The Health Of The Consumer
29:59 Advertisements
31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet
37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility
38:57 Central Bank Independence
41:18 Permissionless Ad
41:57 A Weaker US Dollar
44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics
53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps
56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?
59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?
01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

[Alexandraconniesmith]

One thing I have learned about the stock market is that it is very very manipulated. It will not let investors know when it go up or down. It will always do the opposite what investors think it might do... If investors can figure out what the market is going to do, companies will go bankruptcy.... So I don't waste my time and energy to bother what the market is going to for me .. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Adriana Jensen, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[rohitkothari]

It's possible high yield does not work as an effective smoke alarm this time. Since the govt at the sovereign level has backstopped all private losses since GFC n market assumes they always will. So all the risk may be just transferred to UST.

Would be funny if we get a recession n worsening credit conditions, but High yield rates go down n UST long-end rates go up. Who knows? We may even get high yield yielding the same as UST 😂

[rohitkothari]

I think gold n silver have the best risk/ reward ratio for next few years. Better than BTC.

[patrick]

Always a great show! Thank you for the insights every week 🎉

[InvestingZen]

hey guys just want to take a second from our crypto ad to do a show about nvda earnings. ok now back to the ad

[xfgteear]

I really enjoy this weekly show. I watch/listen to all the macro/econ podcasts under the sun, daily, but the round table format here is quite interesting vs the usual 1 on 1 interview format. thanks homies 🫡

[VanessaTyler]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Katherine Stewart.

[bradapotamus]

Love the options trading breakdown. I love this stuff.

[rohitkothari]

I would say US will not be able to force the world to adopt BTC as the strategic reserve even if it does. There are 2 many negative downshift effects for rest of the world. We r not in US-centric 1971 world.
Rather it would speed up fracturing of trade n capital flaws n US would be cut off from large parts of the world. RoW n BRICS would come up with an alternative currency or blockchain ledger that half of the world would adopt.

[extraclip]

Credit spreads make the world go round.

[juliereichwein]

I think people are waiting for the debate. If it goes strongly for Trump, then it’s game on imo.

[muddlefly]

The Bitcoin cup and handle tells the whole story. Right now we have hit a massive supply of primarily for sellers and the market needs to absorb it. Everybody is waiting for the pop. It's just a question of when.

[gj]

The most mind-blowing thing to come out of this episode is that Tyler is a Millennial... 🤔

[revpgesqredux]

Haven't been here in a while...not recognizing anyone. Hope your mission is Good

[kikaalvesdesouza]

Is bitcoin signalling a liquidity squeeze?

[Nolsie]

Bubble pullback, we’ll see if this is the boom

[CheifExpo]

50pbs is bad, 25 is good. Out of the last 5 times fed cut rates. 2/5 25bps stocks were up after 6-12min this. 3/5 50 bps stocks were down 20% 12 months later

[michael]

ETHBTC trending to 0 over time imo. ETH has no value prop