Could Taiwan become a nuclear power in a decade? Experts weigh in

Could Taiwan become a nuclear power? It’s possible, according to an arms strategy expert surveyed by Foreign Affairs magazine. The influential American publication cited an expert who named Taiwan, Japan and South Korea as states that could have its own nuclear weapons within the next decade. But local experts say that the nuclear window of opportunity closed for Taiwan long ago. They say the island is now focused on a non-nuclear approach to building deterrence against China.

In the latest edition of U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs, experts weigh in on whether more states were likely to acquire nuclear weapons. One expert strongly agreed with the proposition. He named Taiwan, Japan and South Korea as states likely to join the “nuclear weapons club” within the next decade.

Su Tzu-yun
Institute for National Defense and Security Research
Taiwan does indeed have the capacity to have its own nuclear weapons. But our national policy is to not possess or build weapons of mass destruction. There are indeed experts in the U.S. that say Taiwan should have nuclear arms, especially tactical nuclear weapons, to eliminate the threat of a large-scale landing. But long-range weapons and precision ammunition can achieve a similar effect.

Military expert Su Tzu-yun said that Taiwan does have the ability to become nuclear-capable. But he said that going down the nuclear path would be too controversial, and may only heighten regional tensions. Shortly after 1964, Taiwan launched a secret nuclear weapons program dubbed the Hsinchu Project. Taiwan had been one step away from developing weapons of mass destruction.

Arthur Ding
NCCU Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies
Taiwan’s opportunity to develop nuclear weapons is over. At the end of the 1980s, Chang Hsien-yi ran away to the U.S. Not long afterward, the U.S. sent people here and dismantled all the equipment being used to develop nuclear weapons. If Taiwan were to try again, it would have to purchase a lot of equipment. And now, amid the tensions between the U.S. and China, if Washington agreed to let us develop nuclear weapons, that would cause even more conflict between them and Beijing.

Chao Tien-lin
DPP lawmaker
In asymmetric warfare, us developing nuclear weapons would immediately result in regional tensions. But Taiwan can gradually strengthen its submarine force, especially our missile systems. If we do that, when China carries out military simulations, it would have no way of predicting what would happen if it tried to occupy Taiwan.

Lo Chih-cheng
DPP lawmaker
I think that the most important thing for Taiwan is to develop its asymmetric warfare capabilities, to turn Taiwan into a “hedgehog island.” Develop deterrence and countermeasures for air, land, and sea. That is part of our national strategy.

Amid China’s military threat, Taiwan is working on bolstering its asymmetric warfare capabilities. This strategy aims to use the smallest amount of resources to produce the greatest deterrent effect, in hopes of protecting Taiwan against enemy invasion.

[cambodianriverpig]

Nuclear weapons bring peace. It doesn't create tensions. It calms them.

[zarinth]

Taiwan already had nuclear weapons. They have two facilities that produces Plutonium.