When Is a Point in AFL Worth More Than a Goal? Unpacking the Expected Score Statistic

Data and statistics are reinventing the ways in which AFL teams win games. In this explainer, Hawthorn FC Data Consultant Darren O’Shaughnessy walks us through Expected Score, a statistical model providing new insights into success on the field.

Darren shows how calculating the quality of shots taken on goal can provide teams with data that tracks the potential for points scored. Games are won with maximum shots on goal, and Expected Score provides teams with the metrics to pinpoint the progress of this vital strategy.

Data driven models like Expected Score are the future, showing how teams can turn formulas and figures into real world wins.

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[winzar]

Did you also know that Travis Cloke's expected score is in the negative?

[thedownunderverse]

Being Hawthorn, I assume there's an expected feee kicks stat too?

[pescador]

What is the average number of points equivalent to a goal?

[thedonfonz]

How the f does one who knows nothing of AFL supposed to grasp this the first time round? hahah .. and for some reason - that comment about how someone's expected score is a negative sounded really funny! haha

[oscarjohnson]

This is literally Freo in thos years Derby match

[TheGoosePenis]

"less than 30% chance" are the inequality signs also reversed in aus?

[larryfitzgeraldjr]

This would make more sense if I understood rugby score keepi g

[sergiodoubleshot]

Still doesn't make a point worth more than a goal...

[wolf]

Why in the fuck is Vice treading these waters?

Who rhe fuck cares about AFL ! its a joke!