Ukraine's Counteroffensive Begins: What Happens Next?

After weeks of anticipation, it appears like Ukraine's Southern counter-offensive in Kherson has begun. In this video, we breakdown the latest developments, whether recapturing Kherson is even possible and why this is all very bad news for Putin.

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[stevehoot]

Not sure what surprised me the most; Ukraine making offensive moves towards taking back Kherson, or watching a TLDR video that didn't have 15% of it trying to sell me Curiosity Stream & Nebula! 😅

[martinwyke]

The general is correct, not bluffing. The three to one numerical advantage is one force multiplier, but it is not the only one and it can be achieved by force concentration in one area especially if you have mobility advantages, reconnaissance/intelligence advantages, etc. Simply operating on friendly territory can provide both of those.

[ggelsrinc]

It's kind of hard to tell, because Ukraine will keep things secret for awhile. Usually the 3 to 1 ratio is about right, but when you can't be resupplied, that ratio is meaningless.

[Tjalve]

I talked to a guy from Kherson, who has been in touch with people who live there.
He said that it's only partially true that Russia has introduced the Russian ruble, and are giving out Russian passports.
He claimed that the rubles they are using there, are not valid in Russia. And the passports likewise are not valid in Russia.
So in actual fact, Russia has introduced Kherson rubles, and are giving out Kherson passports. Not Russian ones.

[keithkuckler]

That dam has strategic importance for theRussian occupation of Crimea. The pennisula has a shortage of water, and, depends on the river and the dam to keep a steady supply of water to Crimea. Along with the bridge over the Kerch Strait, disabling them would put the Russians in an impossible position. If the Ukrainians had longer range munitions, the bridge would be a target.

[IronWolf]

If Russia does do the referendum, if Kherson does join Russia, the borders would look worse to the eyes

[MsZeeZed]

The counter-offensive began in July when the bridges were destroyed. The next step was to bait Putin into building pontoons across the river to send reinforcements into the city. Then the logistics hubs and air base in Crimea were hit. Now Himars get the job they were designed for of pinpoint destroying light pontoon crossings as the front-lines are shelled. The objective is to make the Russias flee by boat, leaving their heavy equipment behind and degrade the Russian forces in Southern Ukraine. Its not possible for the Russian’s to hold Kherson with river at their backs, with no air cover and all bridges cut. Surrounded & unsupplied armies eventually surrender. This has been a truth of warfare for 1, 000s of years.

[hardheadjarhead]

At 6:00 minutes they refer to an Army Corps of 40, 000 men as a “battalion”. A battalion consists of 600-700 men. It’s a subunit of a regiment. A regiment is a subunit of a division. A corps, typically, is three divisions.

[machdaddy]

Patton famously said “No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country”

[rangered_]

Hopes and prayers to the Ukrainians. Wishing them well to their families and their current ongoing operations, time for them to retake Kherson. 🇵🇭🤝🇺🇦

[RoguishHound]

The referendum that Russia holds in occupied territories, seems simply symbolic from the outside. However, with the referendum complete, would that then make the territory "Russian" and allow Putin to deploy conscripts to the region?? If I understand it correctly, Russian law prohibits sending conscripts into areas outside of Russia.

[eliahabib]

The russian didn't "retreat". The correct term is: "consolidated their forces on a line further away from the front" 😂

[liamvarin]

Glory to Ukraine! Best wishes from the USA 🇺🇸💗🇺🇦

[Xantec]

Ukraine "we do not have the strength to take Kherson

24 hours later the trap springs.

Seems like Ukrainian military leaders have been reading Tsung Tsu. When you are strong, LOOK WEAK. When you are weak LOOK STRONG.

[GeneralGayJay]

The Ukrainians should have the advantage in intelligence. After all knowing where the enemy is is half the battle.

[georgethompson]

I'm skeptical of the third amry core, if concentrated they could shift lines in the donbas and force Ukraine to bleed troops away from the south to defend. Thus returning initiative to russia until it is once again exhausted.

However with the current offensive stance of the Ukrainian army it is more likely they will be dispersed as a defensive force to try and either stabilize the south or reinforce losses in the east.

[napoleonibonaparte]

Ideally, a simultaneous push from Zaporizzhia would also help in diverting Russia’s attention from Kherson.

[stevenkibsey]

Terrible news for Putin? How did that counter offensive work out for them?

[yasmanyleon]

This operation is not the main attack for Kherson yet, is small company level probing attacks to test the Russian defenses along their lines. Once an operation is given a green light by the generals operating in the area, is very difficult to stop, and are very costly; therefore this actions represent a prelude to the real push for Kherson. Is also surprising that a lot of people expect the timeline for such operation to be revealed by the UA to the press, because this is giving a head start to the Russians to prepare around their defenses. Most likely that the operation/push for Kherson will start days or even weeks from now, by then most people would had mistakenly assumed the operation failed or had limited success. Russian are constrained in this area by supply due to the infrastructure/bridges/supply ammo depots destruction and a lack of morale. The Ukrainians are doing everything according to phases. Phase 1: take out infrastructure, Phase 2: probe the defenses, Phase 3: Attack weak points along their lines, Phase 4: surround and besiege strong defenses points and cities/villages . Slava Ukraini!

[jorik]

If Russia is preforming so poorly now, winter won't do them favors. I just hope they don't turn on the civilians during that time. for people that don't know Ukraine gets cold, freezing sea water cold.