Risks following infection versus vaccination

UK, (England), Risk of thrombocytopenia and thromboembolism after covid-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 positive testing: self-controlled case series study

Prof Julia Hippisley-Cox

People vaccinated with first doses, 16 or over

N = 29,121,633

Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19)

N = 19,608,008

Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2mRNA)

N = 9,513,625

People testing positive SARSCoV-2

N = 1,758,095

Within 28 days of three exposures

First dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine

First dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine

SARS-CoV-2 positive test

For every 10 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca

An extra 107 would be hospitalised or die from thrombocytopenia

(1 in 93,459)

9 times lower than the risk following an infection

An extra 66 would be hospitalised or die from blood clots in the veins

Nearly 200 times lower than the risk following an infection

For every 10 million people vaccinated with the Pfizer

An extra 143 extra strokes would be seen

(1 in 69,930)

12 times lower than the risk following an infection

Myocarditis and pericarditis

Chest pain, shortness of breath, or feelings of having a fast-beating, fluttering, or pounding heart

52 million doses to 12–29 years

1,226 reports of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination 42,414

One in 42,414

Data demonstrate increased risks, particularly within the seven days following the second dose

The observed risk is higher among males under 40 years of age compared to females and older males

Risk is highest in males 12 through 17 years of age

[lolly]

So why isn’t the government putting out government information on getting fit losing weight and building immune system before the winter.

[robertdennis]

If everyone is bound to get the infection anyway, then the only benefit of the vaccines is reduction of the severe disease risk. Why then should those who have previously been infected, but not vaccinated, assume the additional risk of vaccination?

[meeshgh]

A good health practitioner with consious would advise his patients to have a COVID-19 T-cell immunity test prior making any decisions.

[jackiescott]

I'd appreciate some information on these risks for adverse events if a person has natural immunity from recovered covid-19 infection. Most studies seem to ignore those with natural immunity.

[Rd]

I think there is a very huge error being made here, that I haven't yet seen being pointed out in the comments, Dr. Campbell. The study clearly states that the population studied is among vaccinated individuals. As in, they are ALL vaccinated. This is explicit in their methodology section, and reiterated in their conclusion. How is this supposed to be a meaningful comparison between one's risk of developing blood clots via the two vaccines in question vs via Sars-Cov-2 infection? Am I missing anything?

If anything, at first glance, this might indicate to some that getting vaccinated INCREASES the risk of blood clots once one gets infected (and as one comment mentions rightly below, everyone WILL get infected eventually). Of course, this would require some data on how common blood clots are among infected unvaccinated individuals in the first place.

[tonysymes]

The real question is why are we not concentrating on antivirals..

[quanty]

WHY IS IT NEVER BROKEN DOWN BY AGE AND CO-MORBIDITIES!?? SUCH BASIC ANALYSIS

[robertalan]

One is self inflicted, the other is by chance.

[JellyBellyButter]

Two high level FDA employees just quit over the CDC’s push for the booster shot. This concerns me.

[philiphodgesnz]

That's all very well and interesting. Are those risks split into ages however? I mean who was getting the blood clots? If the blood clotting after Covid was all in the old and the blood clotting in the vaccinated all in the young, then it does make a difference to the risk assesment, surely?

[bidnow]

The discussion of relative risk without emphasizing absolute risk only tends to frighten the uneducated.

[hansvanzutphen]

I think there are several errors made here. The study compares 28 days after vaccination vs 28 days after a positive test. There are several problems with that: 1. People with no symptoms are less likely to have been tested, so results will be skewed towards people with symptoms. 2. Being vaccinated doesn't mean you cannot get infected later on. So you would need to add the risks of getting it (multiplied by the reduction in chance of that happening) of being infected after vaccination. I expect that the results of that will still point in the same direction, but less strongly.

[feetch]

You should address the recent resignations of two FDA board members who were in charge of vaccine oversight.

[jima]

My understanding that in Canada the paper work is so long that Doctors just do not fill it out. In my case I was not even asked if my problems could be vaccine related. Almost like the Doctor didn't want to know.

[jaxel]

I bet the risks to the unvaccinated from the virus would be virtually nonexistent if given early treatment with effective therapeutics

[davidmyhra]

This whole thing is neither here nor there for me. I've had the virus, why risk more side effects by getting vaxed

[TheCanceledDancer]

I think we need to see these side effects rates with the second dose and then compare it, it’s pretty common knowledge that all the side effects happen after the second dose so I’m really confused and concerned as to why they only showed the first dose.

[mhmghb]

Here's the question though, is that by age range? That looks like an overview graph where upon all age ranges are lumped in. As we know age and comorbidities are a significant factor.

[mickeyfinn]

It's gone from "safe and effective" to safe'ish and not as effective as we thought .

[capetownkelp]

If I understood correctly, this study shows the relative risk of developing these conditions as a result of vaccination or COVID-19. This is not the choice we appear to have, if it is inevitable that one will get COVID-19. Rather, the choice is whether to expose to both vaccination AND COVID-19, or whether to only expose to COVID-19. This appears not to have been addressed in the study?