Erdogan’s Diplomatic U-Turn: Prospects and Pitfalls in Turkish-Israeli Relations

Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s March 9 visit to Turkey will be the first visit by an Israeli head of state since 2007. Jerusalem has expressed cautious optimism to the diplomatic course correction of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who until recently had been a vocal critic of the Abraham Accords. The historic normalization agreements have flourished as Arab countries have elected to de-prioritize historical animosities with Israel and instead emphasize their own national interests, leading to deeper economic, diplomatic, and defense cooperation. At the same time, Erdogan faces a collapsing economy, rising domestic opposition to his rule, conflict with Arab neighbors and traditional Western allies, and new turmoil in the region with Russian troops invading Ukraine.

On the heels of his similar overtures to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, what are the key drivers of Erdogan’s change of heart and outreach to Israel? Is the Turkish president willing to curb his support for Hamas and anti-Israel vitriol? Can Erdogan’s Turkey, which facilitated Iran’s sanctions evasion schemes at the height of U.S. sanctions, find common ground with Israel to push back against the Islamic Republic’s hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East and beyond? To discuss these critical questions, FDD hosts a discussion with Gallia Lindenstrauss (INSS), Aykan Erdemir (FDD), Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak (Moshe Dayan Center and Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security-JISS), moderated by Enia Krivine (FDD). Ambassador Eric S. Edelman provides introductory remarks.