Is PERMAFROST the Climate Tipping Point of No Return?

Arctic air is warming, causing scientists to worry that melting arctic ice and snow could also lead to a sudden permafrost thaw and release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that forms a climate tipping point or feedback loop. Thawing of permafrost has been linked to releasing zombie viruses not seen in millennia and the feedback loop mentioned in the recent IPCC report and COP27 focused on the release of CO2. This is something that US leaders hope the 2022 climate change bill (Inflation Reduction Act) could help avoid, but the trigger temperature may be coming sooner than expected.

In 2008, Tim Lenton published a groundbreaking paper on tipping points. Permafrost was left off the list at the time. But since then, additional research has shown that this truly enormous store of carbon is far more susceptible to global warming than we just recently believed.

If the permafrost that covers much of the northern hemisphere were to reach this tipping point, it would add many gigatons of greenhouse gas into our atmosphere, significantly worsening climate change, and threatening many of the other climate tipping points.

This episode of Weathered explores the latest research on the possibilities of abrupt permafrost thaw as well as the much deeper yedoma regions that could be triggered later on.

Weathered is a show hosted by weather expert Maiya May and produced by Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural disasters, what causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can do to prepare.

This episode of Weathered is licensed exclusively to YouTube.

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[beth]

Given how many times we've already been surprised at things happening faster than predicted, I won't be surprised if it's easier to melt that permafrost than currently estimated.

[AvangionQ]

I think that all of this is a huge underestimate and that the arctic methane release will come a lot sooner than predicted.

[caja]

I'm with William Rees and Nate Hagens here. Overshoot is the problem. Climate change is a symptom of the cheap energy we've had to exploit the planet. The best way to mitigate seems to be to get off of our addiction to growth. If we stopped plowing excess of CO2 could be drawn down within a couple of years with same or better foodproduction.. See UN report on soil. No need for technical solutions, which anyway comes from the worldview that got us into this predicament. As another commentator wrote: "economy comes before ecology"..."Ecology" being externalized in economic thinking. etc etc etc etc

[bogtrotter]

As long as our form of governement remains a plutocracy, the economy will always trump the environment.

[thermaldynamics]

my childhood bedroom faced permafrost mountains and over the years ive had to watch them melt over time and now it just rains in the winter :( i loved winter and snow but now winter is just sad bc of how much it rains. spring used to make me sad when the snow melted late march/april but now its nov/dec and theres only rain and hardly snow the rest of winter, heartbreaking really

[GrandmaBev]

There used to be snow and ice, from the top states of the US, through Canada and Alaska. Now, it barely snows. The ice used to be pristine and white. The spot and pollution have turned the ice black, and is melting a lot faster than it would have if we didn't pollute. I think it's too late. Some people are not taking the causes seriously. I really feel sorry for our kids and grandkids!

[victoriaeads]

So many of these tipping point events remind me of a slow plumbing leak. It *seems* like just a few drops here and there, but when you put a bucket under it, you realize that you're losing gallons of water daily. Of course, a plumbing leak can be fixed fairly

[victoriaeads]

They call it the compost BOMB effect for good reason. If you've ever maintained a large compost heap, you'll know it needs to be turned regularly or the methane buildup can cause fires and explosions. Backyard compost isn't usually too dangerous, but that's why those fancy composting bins are able to rotate. It saves you from turning it with a shovel.

[ACL]

My 6th grade science teacher taught us about "tipping points" in 1973. And remember the "energy crisis" around that time? We have known we needed to get off of fossil fuels for a very long time, and we didnt do it. Too late now, friends. Too late. Buckle up because it's going to be a crazy ride from now on.

[castaway]

AMEG (the Arctic Methane Emergency Group) has been warning about the thawing of permafrost for years. Glad this is getting the attention it deserves.

[Vector_Ze]

"We" have been aware of the problem and the steps we need to take to avoid serious consequences for decades. We've also known that the longer we procrastinate, the more drastic measures needed would become. And, so far, we've done nowhere near what is needed. That's a trend I expect to continue until seriously dire results are unavoidable.

[BufordTGleason]

We’ve had to already hit tipping points. Each new climate report paints the same picture, faster than we thought. So feedback loops are active and gaining momentum and may have already been crossed.

[laurataylornyc]

Thank you for bringing this information to the pubic. It needs to hit home because most people are in a state of cognitive dissonance and walking around enjoying the warm weather. I don’t see enough acknowledgement or acceptance that we are in a CLIMATE CRISIS.

[jimisru]

It always seems like scientists isolate events. You look at melting then make predictions that things don't get bad for decades. This allows people to ignore it. But you don't take in the entire picture. The storms, floods, fires, and droughts already have gotten much worse. Add to the three additional children PER SECOND, and eight billion people already here and then do the math. Then you have every city on the planet using the same resources. Cities use the same cars, computers, clothing, housing, roads, factories, stores, etc.

Not only is permafrost melting, but so is ice all over the world. Rising seas will destroy coastal civilizations. Droughts will cause the end of agriculture. Fires will destroy everything in it's path. Floods have become insane. So it's time to calculate all of these effects when doing a video like this. Otherwise you isolate the issue into something that only exists as an abstract.

Habitat overshoot and the effects of climate change should be discussed more considering these facts. This isn't happening in decades in the future. This is happening right now.

[jjoohhhnn]

This (permafrost melting) and methane hydrate is why Don't Look Up was made, we have functionally passed the tipping point, we would have to stop all human emissions today in order to avoid this tipping point. This mechanism (co2 induced frozen methane release) caused the Permian Extinction. It's absolutely stunning what we've set in motion for future generations.

[npmerrill]

As the corporatist powers that be are aware, we’re in the midst of a polycrisis - multiple existential crises that spell certain doom for a large percentage of the global human population and most other life on the planet - any one of which is extremely problematic, but taken together serve as an indictment of those same people’s political influence, wanton greed and exorbitant lifestyle. It’s not left versus right anymore, if ever it was. It’s top versus bottom, and it’s high time to rise up or give up.

[granitfog]

Imagine I have opened the door to my freezer just a milimeter or so. The freezing mechanism turns on every hour or so, and it is enough to counter act the warmth entering the freezer through the slighhtly open door, and to keep frozen the ice in the ice trays. But every day I open the door by another milimeter or so. Eventually on day 30 or so, the freezing system cannot keep up with the warmth that the door lets in, and the ice inside starts melting. Every day still I continue opening the freezer door by a milimeter or so and the ice melts more and more. If I agree to stop opening the door, will the ice stop melting - of course not. Once the ice started melting at some degree of door opening, I have reached the point where the freezing system cannot keep up with the warmth entering and the start of melting. The only difference between continuing to open the door or keeping the door the same, is the pace of melting and the day when the last of ice will have melted. Melting is a certainty, "when" it is completed is the only uncertainty. 

Similarly, we have reached a concentration of atmospheric CO2 to retain enough heat to start the process of ice melting, as it is doing in the glaciers, the arctic, and permafrost. In the last 3+ decades, the artic has lost a million sq km every decade, and glaciers are disapearing. What mechanism would halt the process simply because we have stopped raising the atmospheric level of CO2? But we are not stopping. CO2 is increasing by 2 to 2.5 ppm every year. Even in 2020 during a global COVID lockdown, CO2 emissions continued at over 30 GT. 2022 emissions were at 36GT. By 2040, atmospheric CO2 will be at or over 450 ppm. 

This demonstrates my pessimism about the future of climate change. I think we have passed the point of no return about three decades ago, and I have not found any scientific explanation to counter my reasoning The only question in my mind is when will life start to feel intolerable.

[DanFlorio]

This whole idea of blowing past one tipping point after another somehow reminds me of my favorite quote from Douglas Adams: "I just love deadlines, and the *whoosing* noise they make is they go past."

Just replace "deadlines" with "tipping points."

[jamesburge]

The tipping point has already been crossed. While it can be argued that, 'this or that COULD be done' the reality is that one must take into account the slow response time of humanity. As a result of the slow motion response, anything that 'can' be done will not be done or will be done too late.

[ardiris]

Usually our lawns here are brown by mid-November, snow or not. This is February. The lawns are still green, and new growth has already begun. Anecdotal, I know, but it is what it is.