Demystifying China's Economic Future | Insights from Yukon Huang

Originally recorded on November 30, 2017

Delve into the complexities of China's economic landscape with Yukon Huang, former Country Director for China at the World Bank. Despite predictions of collapse, China's economy remains robust, and its political system stable. In this discussion, Huang challenges conventional wisdom and explores the realities behind China's growth story. Drawing from his book, "Cracking the China Conundrum," he offers a fresh perspective on China's economic trajectory and debunks common myths. Join us to gain a deeper understanding of China's economic dynamics and why many experts have misunderstood its trajectory.

SPEAKER:

Yukon Huang
Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

MODERATOR:

N. Bruce Pickering
Vice President of Global Programs, Asia Society and Executive Director, Asia Society Northern California, Asia Society

[linuxraven]

As someone who has spent the past 5 years living and working in China, I find his talk to be an accurate representation of what's happening in China. Many people in China have a pretty positive attitude towards the United States and find it difficult to see how that affection was not reciprocated in the US media. And after my stay here, I tend to agree that the US is more hostile towards China than the other way around.

I wish there are more views for this video to facilitate better understanding of both countries

[comedianman]

This is one of very few brilliant Chinese experts who really know what he is talking about. And this is the one in a long long time that makes me realize there is social scientist that can do real "scientific" research.

[sstchan]

Yukon Huang is the kind of teacher I enjoyed the most in college or graduate school. Whatever “silly” or “dumb” questions in class were asked, they were never dismissed outright or dogmatically but rather patiently answered citing known facts and statistics. One can draw a different conclusion which, however, must be fact based.

[pardeeptandon]

Till 2008 China used to keep its surpluses in US treasuries, but after the bust of the housing bubble US started doing QE ( printing money to pay debt ) . This got China worried . So they came up with OBOR projects were in they loan there savings / surplus money to 65 countries to build infrastructure. Most of this infrastructure is build by Chinese companies using Chinese resources and they get better returns on there loans than what US treasuries gave them. On top of it helps them buy political influence in these 65 countries. This has got America worried .... hence the trade as America can not retaliate militarily against China as it did against the oil rich Arab countries to support their inefficient business.

[svcleaves]

Mr Huang is spot on. I worked with high level Chinese officials for over 10 years. Too many Americans can't get over their jingoistic mantras. Chinese leaders public and especially private are at the top of their game. Smart, well educated, hard working and clever.

[sunnyd]

What Dr. Huang’s ideas inspire me most is not about re-examining those conventional wisdoms but pointing out that the “Thucydides' Trap” is NOT inevitable, that through more self-reflection 、mutual development and open collaboration, unnecessary conflicts can be avoided and win-win can take the place of win-lose or lose-lose (which is probably where the situation will go based on what’s happening these days).

I think that’s the most significant aspiration that both China and US should keep in mind.

God bless China. God bless US. And God bless a peaceful and prosperous world!

[ElenaSharipovaMD]

GDP growth bubbles are created by exploding debt for non-fungible real estate. GDP today is a measure of narcissism rather than economic activity.

[henrym]

It’s one of the best lectures to figure out the problems about US, China and the world.

[scorpiaflameful]

This perspective is the way that China and Chinese sees themselves. His work is probably the most accurate western account of the current attitude of China

[guagua]

Finally, a person who truly understands and knows China!! I've lived in China for 17 years...this guy is spot on on everything!

[richardgould-blueraven]

This is how I see it living in China. Perhaps I should buy his book so I can explain it better to my American friends and family

[NB]

Interesting talk. Conventional wisdom doesn't benefit you anything, it only reinforces what you already believe. Take points from this guy.

[ozziejin]

Eyeopening, I am shocked, a few perspectives I have heard the first time and yet make such great sense in explaining the debt and land value phenomenon in China.

[StevenKHarrison]

I'm always suspicious of these types from the "Think Tanks" This guy, formerly of the world bank, is now with the Carnegie Inst. which, according to citizens source, is a libertarian org. While what he has to say is very interesting and certainly gives a different perspective as MSM orthe blogosphere, I have my salt shaker out.

[magnaviator]

Fantastic talk, and more relevant now than ever. Obviously our leaders have not seen this video or read Mr. Huang's insightful book.

[sonnyng]

I've lived and worked in East Asia as an expat consultant for the last ten years including a couple years in China's Guangdong area, the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and this conversation is spot on!

[gshrdy]

Its hard for many people to conceptualize many things about economy growth and decline.
Good lecture, learned something.

[renatodelatorre]

I have been living in Shenzhen, China for two years now. I work for a large Chinese Tech company here. I would agree with almost everything he says. Living here has really made me open my eyes about the misconceptions that people in the US has about China and the way the economies works. Both the US and the Chinese economies.

I do disagree with the land ownership/debit issue. For one, he does not go into the whole ghost city issue. According to Baidu, there are 84 Million empty apartments in China. There are so many completely empty cites and pockets of unused buildings just sitting around unused because no one can can afford them, or they are located in places where there is no work. But they keep on building. That somehow, has to put a burden on the debit. How can a construction company spend billions on constructing unused and unsold properties and not have some kind of impact on a debit? There is going to be a reckoning soon. That bubble is going to burst eventually.

[zonefinderx]

Watching and hearing Huang now with the benefit of hindsight shows how accurate he is on US and China trade relationship is and his views on the global economy.

[jackyhuang]

this guy is amazingly wise, never saw anybody had so deep insights about China.