Nassim Nicholas Taleb (ENG) - The Black Swan Living with the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (English version) - The Black Swan Living with the Highly Improbable. Speech during Science and Business Days 2023, Yerevan, Armenia.

[GoldBrosjewelry]

This dude single handley changed my way of thinking...but we still cant figure whats for dinner😂

[principal]

Black Swans and Antifragility to me are of the same significance and magnitude as relativety. Simple ideas seemingly before our eyes that need to be unboxed by people who stay at problems until they solve them and then immeasurable quality evolves from these ideas into substantial concepts that are even mathematically measurable. These are the things that progress us as a sentient species, step by step. thank you nassim

[JStankXPlays]

I just read two of his books. I know he doesn't like comparing real life to the casino but it does serve as a tangible analogy. What if I told you there was a bet at the roulette wheel where you you could bet on RED and BLACK for double your money, but the minimum bet is your entire life's savings and you have to spin the wheel 100 times in a row. Yes there is a 94.74% chance each time of you doubling your money, but there is also a 5.26% each time that it will completely wipe you out and since you have no life savings left, its game over if you loose just once in 100 spins. The odds that you will leave with no money is very high, and the odds that you will walk away the richest man on earth is extremely low. Eventually the green swan will wipe you out. .

In real life market its very different. Now imagine that same game where you don't know how many different colored pockets are on the wheel. What if you didn't know the shape of the ball? Is it a ball or is it a cube, or some other shape? What if you didn't know which way the wheel was oriented to the ground? Is the wheel slanted at some random degree? Maybe the wheel is in space and there is no gravity, or maybe it is on Jupiter with 2.4 X the gravity. Would you still make that bet?

That is what these big time hedge funds are doing with your money. They have not a clue as to what is going to happen, and they make bets and try to convince you that they have some crystal ball. They don't. Eventually they will get burned, especially if they are trading where any little downward fluctuation will completely wipe them out. The difference is that they are not trading with their money, they are trading with yours. Every time they spin the wheel, they charge you a fee to do it. So who wins there?

[johnanderson]

How long have we have the wheel? A wheelie long time!

[rahulkakkarscience]

You don't know the application of tools you have now
7:34 - Academics tell what they know and what we can do with it. In real life and in business people deal with what they don't know. Avoiding fragilities. Different approaches.
9:45 - Disorder Brothers. Likes one, likes all. Hates one, hates all.

[MaryLee-rv]

Hall Timothy Martin Susan Wilson Richard

[johns]

Taleb's books are excellent but his presentation skills suck

[beachfrontland]

Wow such ignorance....!!!! Arabic Numerals...Where???? - it was invented by the Indians LOL including early algebra....My grandmother could have said better logical things than this gentlemen...! and she was just a School principal/math teacher.

[aristolochene]

the mouse-elephant drop analogy was great