Why We Haven't Found Any Earth-Like Planets

Twelve years ago, NASA predicted around 50 Earth-like planets would be discovered by the Kepler telescope, planets with the same size, warmth and host star as we do. And yet, we're left essentially none. What happened? Why did those predictions not match reality? And what can we learn from these 50 lost dreams...

Written & presented by Prof David Kipping

THANK-YOU to our supporters D. Smith, M. Sloan, L. Sanborn, C. Bottaccini, D. Daughaday,A. Jones, S. Brownlee, G. Fulton, N. Kildal, M. Lijoi, Z. Star, E. West, T. Zanjonc, C. Wolfred, F. Rebolledo, L. Skov, E. Wilson, A. de Vaal, M. Elliott, B. Daniluk, M. Forbes, S. Vystoropskyi, S. Lee, Z. Danielson, C. Fitzgerald, V. Alexandrov, L. Macchia, C. Souter, M. Gillette, T. Jeffcoat, H. Jensen, F. Linker, J. Rockett, N. Fredrickson, B. Mlazgar, D. Holland, J. Alexander, E. Hanway, J. Molnar, D. Murphree, S. Hannum, T. Donkin, K. Myers, A. Schoen, K. Dabrowski, J. Black, R. Ramezankhani, J. Armstrong, K. Weber, S. Marks, L. Robinson, F. van Exter, S. Roulier, B. Smith, P. Masterson, R. Sievers, G. Canterbury, J. Kill, J. Cassese, J. Kruger, S. Way, P. Deschaine, B. Stanciu & A. Pirogov.

::References::
► Jenkins et al. (2015), "Discovery and Validation of Kepler-452b: A 1.6-Re Super Earth Exoplanet in the Habitable Zone of a G2 Star":

::Music::
► Atlas - Waking Up (01:48)
► Falls - Life in Binary (07:35)
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Five (12:55)
► Chris Zabriskie - We Were Never Meant to Live Here (15:01)
► Falls - Ripley (18:20)
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Two (23:16)
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Four (26:52)
► Chris Zabriskie - Stories About the World That Once Was (33:09)

::Film/TV clips used::
► Ad Astra (2019) - 20th Century Fox
► The Matrix: Reloaded (2003) - Warner Bros. Pictures
► The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) - New Line Cinema
► (500) Days of Summer (2009) - Fox Searchlight Pictures
► Sunshine (2007) - Fox Searchlight Pictures

::Chapters::
00:00 Fifty Dreams
07:36 Expectations
12:57 Reality
22:14 Expectations vs Reality
31:23 Lessons from Kepler
38:07 Outro and credits

#50LostEarths #CoolWorlds

[SonicBoone]

"This is Cool Worlds, we expect the best." Extremely impressive that you ran a simulation of what Kepler should have seen with our current understanding of the most common star types.

[freespirit]

That was an extremely impressive video. As a non-scientist but with a keen interest in astronomy, I found the presentation clear and accessible. You have a real gift for explaining complex science to the layman! Thank you!

[MaxPower-]

The Achilles heel of trying to locate extrasolar plants using the transit method is that the edge of the planet’s orbital plane must be oriented towards us. Since other solar systems’ orbital planes are randomly tilted throughout the galaxy, even if a given solar system actually contains an Earth-like planet, the chances of Kepler picking up that planet are minuscule.

[bkbland]

Your rigor is greatly appreciated. I share your enthusiasm for locating planets like our own. I think the rare Earth hypothesis may actually prove to be the case. As always, we'll see. Groove on, Dr. Kipping.

[fotmheki]

NASA is the most profitable gov agency and yet the most under-budget one. If 10% of defense budget could be granted to NASA for 5 years it would be awesome

[sad_kiwi]

Professor Kipping, I just want to say, that as a young person who is particularly concerned with the future, and the challenges my generation will be facing sooner than we might prefer, the way you tackle these complex challenges and mysteries deep in space where we can only ask questions really helps to keep me grounded and my head from spinning. The grand scale of everything is truly inspiring, and the way you and your team try to work with nature as opposed to against it has inspired me to do the same, on a smaller scale every day. I just want to say, as a long time fan of you and your team’s work, I hope you can see, and are encouraged by the positive impact you leave behind on those who come after. I hope you can continue your important work and continue inspiring. In this day and age, we could all use a little extra twinkle of starlight to remind us what’s truly important. Thank you.

[Deep_Divers]

What a great high quality presentation. I love the simulation you ran. Real science and engineering always asks the question "Why was the result different than the prediction/expectation?" Imagine if we applied that question to our everyday lives and modified our behavior accordingly.

[davidboyle]

Thank you for this. I was saddened to hear about the problems Kepler started having, and sadder still when it died. A fantastic instrument killed by mechanical failures. If only we could have gone back and fixed it.

Now I realize that there was no fixing possible. That Kepler was simply unable to do what people had hoped it could do. I’m still sad, but now for another reason. We need a bigger, better instrument, one that may need to operate on different principles.

Fortunately there are behemoth launch vehicles on the not too distant horizon. When they are flying, perhaps we can send that bigger, better telescope into space to try again to find Earth’s twin.

[joey]

I really REALLY appreciate you taking the time to actually write a simulation and run it 10, 000 times. That puts this video way above the rest. As an avid space nerd I knew that Kepler "only" found 3 earth candidates but I never knew that they were false positives so thank you for the update!

[alexandermartin]

Excellent video , cool worlds and the exoplanets channel are my favs !!

[Interrobang]

"Not reflective of our current state of knowledge" is the most respectfully delivered diss I have ever heard.

[SimplySammyK]

I'm really hoping the james webb telescope finds something. I watched its deployment live on their stream and I've been so inspired and excited about this new breath of life in deep space

[atomicgeneral]

The fact that stars' variability is 10x more than anticipated surely goes a long way to explaining the dearth of discovered exo-earths.

[criddell]

In many years of watching videos involving technical and scientific explanations and presentations (and attempting to do some myself). This has to be the best presented I have ever seen. I take my hat off to you and your ability to explain and present complex concepts in simple, understandable terms but at the same time with no loss of intrigue for the facts and underlying complexities.
Thank you so much for this.

[salanieyow]

Another fantastic video, thank you Cool worlds team. Every time I watch video on this channel, I love the earth even more because it shows us how special we are and how luck we are to have amazing 🌍

[RonHarrisMe]

Before I retired, I used to teach topics. Sometimes explaining the complex can be extremely difficult. Prof. Kipping has made this task seem simple. People rarely surprise me, in fact I can't remember the last person who has, but Prof. Kipping has done just that. WOW.

[mattsmith]

Your slow narration over space footage is unmatched. Hopefully one day there will be a full video of just that.

[JayVal]

It’s cheaper to build one $24B telescope that works than 3 $11B telescopes that don’t.

[SocksWithSandals]

Kepler proved what a hard problem finding Earth-like planets by transit is.
Maybe some of the larger launch vehicles on the drawing board now will permit large enough photon collection to rise above the noise.

[caseykissinger]

This is an excellent video. I have always been curious about the universe, and by watching your content I actually understand some of it now. 💯🤞