Beyond Tomorrow: Earth's distant climate future

What happens after we stop emitting and changing our climate? Will things go back to normal, or will the global warming and climate changes we've caused stick around long into the future? And what does this mean for the consequences of climate change - from sea level rise to extreme weather? I take a look at what could happen thousands of years from now, and what that means about the choices that we make today.

and to Lukas Hansen and Tamy Beyrouti for direction

#ClimateChange

==MORE INFO==

Impact on glacial cycles (delays 50k year glacial):
Looking at warming in the pipeline (fig 3 looks out to 1000 years):
Lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere
Tipping point paper (lots on ice sheets and multi-millenial stuff):
Paper looking out to 10k years:
- Section 4.7.1.2 - possibilities thousands of years out
- Table 9.10 - discusses Sea Level Rise
Older paper looking at this question

==CREDITS==

Supercomputer footage from ANU TV
Perpetual ocean from Nasa Goddard
Ice age simulation from IPRC Hawaii
Power plant demolition from R S Creator

[gamingtonight]

Never talk about 2100. We have less than 20 years left - 2100 is always mentioned to make it seem we have a long time to deal with the climate crisis - we don't. It's here NOW!

[TheDanEdwards]

The biggest long-term effect you really didn't cover: changes to the biome. *Our activities are causing extinction of some species*, as well as promoting some other species. These changes are going to ripple forward for as long as life can exist on this planet.

[DrGilbz]

Such a great video, Adam, I learned so much! Not least how impressed I am that you can do a handstand on a skateboard, aaaand... how entertaining watching you watch a rock is. Here's to another 50k (and beyond!) 🥳

[HaldaneSmith]

Summary of the main points:

2:50 Plants and the ocean absorb a lot of CO2 relatively quickly (centuries). 

3:15 After that, the slower process of ocean sedimentation will take 10, 000 years to reduce the CO2 we add to the atmosphere by 80%. 20% of the CO2 emitted will still be in the atmosphere after 10, 000 years.

4:45 67% of the heating we cause will still be in the atmosphere after 10, 000 years.

7:25 A 2° rise in temperatures will cause a half meter rise in sea levels by 2100, and a 10 meter rise in 10, 000 years. 

8:25 Because of the CO2 we've already added to the atmosphere, the next Ice age will start in 120, 000 years instead of 50, 000 years.

These projections could change with volcanic activity or a meteor strike.

[TheModernClimatologist]

Not gonna lie. That skateboard trick was really impressive

[deviatefishy]

I did not expect that sick trick at the end, even though you said you would do it.

[SixSigmaPi]

Great video Adam! It is important for people to realise that net-zero doesn't reverse climate change or reduce impacts, but marks the top level of continuous destruction, if we are lucky with tipping points. It's important so that 10 years after net-zero, people don't say 'well that didn't work, lets re-open the coal mines".

[spacebadger]

"Cutting edge technology" good pun

[louishennick]

Thanks Adam very well put. Gonna listen again to take it all in. Keep spreading the message so more of us primates can be aware.

[princekhandelwal]

You deserve 500 Million Subscribers for what you are doing, and the knowledge you are sharing... Great work.

[jenniferlevine]

Congratulations on 50K! (also on the handstand - amazing). Thank you for putting perspective on how important our current actions are. No time for getting depressed, we must keep changing for the better! Great video!

[slavicapesevska]

You are great ClimateAdam. Congratulations on 50K+!

[rapauli]

And how far into the future will this insightfull video be seen? Perhaps this should be carved in stone.

[ingridzabel]

Thank you for this video on long-term climate change. It’s such an important topic that’s not discussed often enough.

[edwardbontrager]

50k subscribers! Congratulations Adam. Well deserved. Content that is easy to digest for all ages, and also very thoughtful. Keep it up! 👏🎉

[Eimrine]

I love to observe how this channel becomes a blockbuster with Tom Scott style montage and cool visualisations. Actually I do not watch channels like this but the climate topic is my the biggest panic point about our future and maybe these videos have to be understandable for anybody.

[ranradd]

Thanks for this. Wasn't sure about the time line for a reversal of climate change, but knew it wasn't soon. I've tried explaining it to people and most don't get it. Oh well. And that skateboard bit was awesomely impressive.

[johnapppel]

Thanks for such great information, Adam! You're one of several reasons I'm going back to college at 60 (I never finished a degree) for a degree in environmental science.

[nicholaspalmer]

I'm a bit perplexed, Dr Levy. It's generally accepted that currently about half of our total CO2 emissions are absorbed by the natural 'sinks', yes? If we achieve net zero emissions by 2050 does this not mean that the sinks would start absorbing the excess CO2 we have put up there at about the rate of our current emissions? According to this logic, this means after a few decades we could be back at atmospheric levels like we had in the 70's/80's.... I did once ask Dr Richard Alley this question at the end of a climate science course I did and he chose it as the most 'interesting' out of all those submitted by course participants.

[ariadgaia]

I may be a sadist for saying this... but we get what we deserve. I'm furious that our society has pushed us to this point, but I'm excited for the challenge of the future! I'm a survivor and I've learned that things never turn out as bad as our fears lead us to believe. I know and trust that we survivors who want a better society will make one that includes the care of the Earth as an integral part~ It's just going to take time as we battle 'The Resistance'. 💪😏