NEW DATA! Here's How Many Tesla Owners ACTUALLY Go Back To Gas... It's Not Many.

So how many Tesla owners *REALLY* went back to gas? Well, thanks to one of our viewers, we got out hands on the best data possible and the answer is: Not many. In 2023, just 11% of Tesla owners that swapped into something else went back to gas. Yep, 11%, not "more than half" as some reporting has said. Let's dive into the data and see what Edmunds and others got wrong.

The key thing about Edmunds' data is that it's collected from dealerships. If you didn't know, Tesla (and others) sell direct. This is critical because a whopping 70% of Tesla owners or lessees that swapped into another car, got another Tesla.

What did the rest do? 13% swapped for another EV, 11% went back to gas, 4% opted for a mild or full hybrid, 2% got a PHEV and 1% opted for a diesel.
So where does *this* data come from? It's from S&P Global Mobility, the gold standard for loyalty, sales, and conquest data. They pull all the car registration data every month from every state and crunch the numbers. (Yep, your registration data is far from private.) They match households that dispose of a car (whether that's a trade-in, sale, end of lease, gifted to someone, etc) and then see what those same households buy or lease next.

From January 1, 2023 to February 29, 2024 (the extra 2 months ensure that replacements have been captured since sometimes it takes a while to sell a car and replace it, or replace a car and sell your old one) a total of 60,022 Teslas were "disposed" of in the USA. (Industry term.)

Of those 60,000 Teslas leaving garages in America, 42,244 new Teslas took their place. What about the rest? 7,710 went back to gas, 6,385 got another EV, 2,344 opted for hybrid power, 946 gave a PHEV a whirl, and 393 opted for a diesel.

Unlike some outlets, we need to “qualify” this data with some asterisks. Between 2008 and 2023, 80% of Teslas ever sold in the USA were sold between 2020 and 2023. That’s why the “Teslas disposed of” number seems so low at 60,022, most just aren’t old enough to even be at the end of their lease. Currently some 70%+ of all Teslas on the road are under 4 years old. This means that the Teslas people are getting rid of skew heavily toward Model S, X and early Model 3s. The oldest Model Ys in America today are just over 4 years old.

When comparing data, beware that Edmunds does not say whether they combine mild and full hybrids, or mild hybrids with ICE and they don’t mention diesel at all.
And there you have it. That’s the full story of Tesla trades.

[AdamantlyAdam]

get 'em Alex! I can tell you've taken a statistics class in your life 😊 GJ

[MarlinMay]

How embarrassing for Edmunds. That is, if they're capable of being embarrassed.

[JW]

I found it a little hard for me to switch back to ICE after owning two Teslas. To be honest I don't like my Telsas. The interior feels very cheap and highway road noises are very loud, even the higher-end models. The biggest reason I stayed with Tesla is I don't want to ever talk to dealers. My Teslas are bought on the website. Maintenance and repairs are communicated in the app, and for smaller repairs the service crew comes to me instead of me going to the service center. This is how it should be IMO.
When I bought my second Telsa I searched if other brands were imitating Tesla, but there weren't many. Most of them were quirky startups. I hope Rivian thrives. My next car will very likely be a Rivian.

[richard]

Really appreciate your follow-up. Very impressed that you did it in 1 day! So, I know this is focused on Tesla owners but I just wanted to say that I was almost one of these people that abandoned EVs. Recently, my Chevy Volt died needing a replacement battery which is hard to find and expensive. It had been charging just fine and I felt the dealer just didn't care to assist with some debug work. I looked at gas powered cars as the replacement and was impressed with what I saw even from makes like Hyundai. I reluctantly did a demo drive of a Tesla Model 3. Well... I was so impressed by the people working there and the car that I decided to "try again" with an EV. There is so much cool tech in this Tesla that I think I will be marveling at it for years to come!

[kolt]

Good points. Thanks for the informative breakdown!

[nevco]

I had guessed and wrote a similar explanation in the previous video why some folks left Tesla: need for extra variety of vehicles to chose from.

[ctbryant]

Love the accurate info and the nerd stuff!
I'll never understand why cars are so divisive, when there are so many choices to accommodate any and everyone.

[light-rdvq]

Great job as usual Alex! I trust you over any of those mainstream outlets

[paul]

Y'all's proofreading process is pretty good. Most of the errors I see are in editing video editing or text typos. Usually noticeable errors which don't affect the vehicle profile. Other channels tend to get vehicle details wrong, like how features work; or they'll knock a test vehicle for missing feature when it's available as an option or they just can't find the button. So keep up the good work.

[foxleema]

Edmonds has a history of propagating misleading information as fact.

[bayoomole]

I love this because there are some YouTubers who are gaining in popularity and obviously have a bias against EV's, some love Japanese automakers above all, who will take that Edmunds article and die on that hill of "EV's are dying, I TOLD YOU SO!" Then there's Alex who gives us hard and fas, pure statistics to show the real story. Always balanced, and that's why he's the gold standard.

[OpinionatedOG]

A 70% customer retention rate is by all accounts massively successful. And anybody who will say it’s not should not be given any valid credit on ev knowledge.

[ralanham]

After having a plug in hybrid, I look forward to not getting gas every week or oil changes every 2 months.

[MistSoalar]

Though I don't have access to either dataset, this one aligns to my observation in my small circle and neighborhood. Thanks Alex for your legwork, and thanks to whoever provided S&P global mobility dataset.

[vancity]

Alex another awesome video based on facts and the truth. Is there any data, that we can really on as the truth, on retention rates for all brands?

[marks.]

Thank you for the further clarification, Alex. Have been a Tesla owner for over a year and can't envision going back to an ICE vehicle.

[briandeschene]

We got our first EV because multiple drivers (kid in local college plus two working parents) and only two ICE cars weren’t sufficient. A leased 2024 Solterra was cheapest way to get another 3rd car in the mix for three years needed. Only $350/month with access to free electrons once a week at one workplace.

However, everyone loves the EV over ICE after driving it — not just our ICE but other’s newer ICE as well! We have to police mileage on the EV to make sure lease allowance is respected. :-)

It seems ICE-only manufacturers should be worried and create a plan B (plan EV?) based on our sampling “experiment”!

[frankcoffey]

The type of power is not the only reason people get a different vehicle. They simply might need a type of vehicle that is not available in EV or is too expensive in that type. If you need a minivan you can't stay with EV, you have to get something else. Same with a two seat roadster, small pickup, or anything else that is not available in the US as all electric. A customers use may change also. If you buy a boat or travel trailer you need to tow long distance into parts of the country where chargers are sparse, an EV might not work for you.

[MickMcGuire]

I knew as soon as this was pushed out it was FUD of the first degree. Thanks for clearing it up.

[RayNLA]

I have two Teslas and never going back to gas. Unless I can get a GT3 RS! 😆