The U.S. Economy Just Hit a Big Turning Point. (Howard Marks' Sea Change Is Here)

The United States has an economic crisis on its hands. Interest rates are high, and the refinancing of $32T worth of Government debt looks like it will restrict the country's cash flows for years to come. In this video, we look at Howard Marks' explanation of the American debt crisis, and what we need to do as investors moving forward.

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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 Howard Marks Sees a Big Problem Emerging
1:03 The Easy Money Isn't Coming Back
2:40 The Painful Effects of High Interest Rates
5:10 The Commercial Real Estate Example
6:58 The Government's Huge Refinancing Crisis
9:20 Marks' Advice For Investing in 2024

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[Campbell]

The way I see this recession most likely has an external cause. The United States is losing influence as a federal currency for the first time in decades. They don’t have any economies to utilize or control their inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than previously. They all lend credence to the hypothesis that a new multilateral world order may be in the works.

[Shultz]

Opinions on the market diverge; some claim overvaluation due to rapid gains, while others cite strong economic fundamentals justifying high valuations. Raises concern for my $600K equities going 8% up and 20% down. Should i hold on or sell off my positions and hold cash?

[heatherholdings]

Recession comes with equivalent market opportunities if you are well prepared and equipped. I've seen folks on verified posts that turned millionaires amid economic downtrend, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy, it all boils down to proper asset allocation.

[dianataylor]

Engaging in an individual market option is a fair but its performance level can’t generate high dividends. Diversification is the secret to optimal performance, that’s why I have my interest set on options based on projected growth and performance.

[simone_maya]

Challenging times might be closer than we think. The gains have largely been powered by the AI boom in tech – and that has led to an unstable situation

[judynewsom]

With a rate decision coming off fresh inflation data that showed an uptick in prices for the second month in a row. As well, the automakers strike, yet my portfolio keeps dwindling. How do I take advantage of the market to save my declining portfolio of 560K

[JasonTrang]

Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

[colleen.odegaard]

inflation back down to 2% because the government shutdown or the auto strike has slowed the economy for us. Right now i want to know: Do I keep contributing to my $2m stock portfolio in these unstable markets, or do I look into alternative sectors?

[jamesg]

13:49 many more businesses are going to ‘founder’, this was corrected to flounder. I looked it up, it is founder - this is from Latin ‘fundus’ to bottom out. We both learnt something. Thanks for the video

[vigfhfc]

I hope it all explodes, then maybe I can finally buy a house!

[mattsennett]

A really good video Brandon and one to watch again if the markets take a further downturn 👍🏻

[sauercrowder]

When he says it's not just the event that happened, but how people reacted to it, I think a simpler and clearer description is that it depends on how it relates to expectations. Another thing I think people get totally wront all the time is that a stock performing "well" just means relative to macro, which could still mean down. Especially being at work where an ESPP is offered, a lot of non-investors get in on it and then complain that in a year like this the stock is flat instead of up despite management saying things are going well.

[EHProjects]

So is there any way this doesn't result in 99% of us returning to serfdom, perpetually paying rent to Lord Blackrock and others?

[ronie]

Exellent Video, top Quality content. I love this Channel because it has a longterm broad view of the economy. Accepting that each investor has his own landscape and really we can study economy all day long and at the end of the day we just don't know. Most of us operating on our own scale, like the little ants building their nests and need to focus on that as opposed to guessing where the elephants will go.

[j.mney]

Great video. Marks is one of my favorite investors to follow. Very wise and humble.

[Mikster_Mindo]

Howard Marks, one of the greatest thinkers in investing.

[TariqSinghKhan]

I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point

[tommiranda]

I love your videos. It's so refreshing to see a young man who pays attention to the wisdom of the old timers instead of jumping on the flavor of the day bandwagon. Keep it up.

[investore]

Brandon,

You have a great and successful YouTube channel, and thanks for all the work you put into each video.

A few corrections are needed. The pie chart regarding Ted Williams batting averages (60 correct, 40 Wrong) is backwards. Ted Williams batted .400, so he was correct 40% of the time.
Also, an investor doesn't need to be correct more than 50% of the time to make money. In fact you can make a fortune being wrong 99% and correct 1%. As George Soros said, it's not how often are right or wrong, but how much money you make when your ride and how much you lose when you're wrong. Nassim Talab also says the same thing.
P.S. I've also met Howard Marks and Warren Buffett in person.