Bayes' Theorem Example: Surprising False Positives

We apply Bayes' Theorem to decide the conditional probability that you have an illness given that you have tested positive for a disease. It turns out the probability is way lower than you might think from just considering false positives alone.

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[ccuny]

What happens when you're 58 and you decide to (re)learn discrete math, logic and probabilities? You watch this series and have a fun ride. Liked and subbed: it's brilliant, lively, entertaining and a great (re)learning experience. Thank you so much.

[jayare]

the best part is how it goes in a bit further depth by exploring what happens if you test positive twice ( probability of disease given you test positive 2 times in a row )
that ish hit different

[renelchesak]

Beautiful wrapping up of the concept! "The whole point of Bayesian analysis is that as I get more information, I get to update the probabilities by which I believe events are going to occur."

[juanchetumare]

I agree with the majority of the comments. This was masterfully explained. I used to be a TA on discrete maths, probability and statistics and this felt like a breath of fresh air. Thanks a lot!

[jackwillims]

This global pandemic is the perfect time to learn this theorem

[alexjohnston]

Worth explicitly showing are the relationships of TP (True Positive), TN (True Negative), FP (False Positive), and FN (False Negative). These relationships are often glossed over, and people frequently mix them up, leading to wrong answers! True Positive and False Positive are NOT complements, nor are True Negative and False Negative. Instead, the TP/TN/FP/FN relationships are:

1. TP and FN are complements, so TP = 1 - FN and FN = 1 - TP
2. TN and FP are complements, so TN = 1 - FP and FP = 1 - TN

[ralphmachado]

Today you thought me something in 12 minutes which my teachers couldn't teach in 12 months.!

[michaeldeleted]

I have watched at least 10 other videos on Bayes. After watching yours I finally get it. Thanks, so much!

[sakura-scbw]

I was really struggling with this theorem. Your video helped tons. Thanks a lot!

[aravkat]

Best video I have watched to get an intuition for Bayes theorem. Thank you!

[DK-ijsh]

All the lessons about Bayes' Theorem are great. Thanks for explaining them in a simple and interesting way.

[yehuawang]

last year you saved my calculus course this year you are saving my statistic course

[Samirkantadas]

Sir ...what a power of explanation, confidence you have..
Thank you so much sir..

[geeves]

This is exceptionally well explained.

I have real trouble assigning the events. For example, "P(A|B) means have disease having tested positive, and P(B) is testing positive)". The breakdown has really helped wrap my mind around it.

Thank you!

[thesouravmalakar]

*Wow, excellently explained !! By the way, it's little like tongue twister !!*

[simonhwang]

Your enthusiasm for teaching math is simultaneously disturbing and infectious. Thanks for the work you do

[danielgoldberg]

Doctor you are the best. Thanks for breaking this down for mr.

[harshmodi]

Sir, Your explanation about the concepts are so clear that anyone can understand clearly. Thank you so much.

[nurulanasuhahseffene]

you have a great way of explaining things and this is random but you sound like ryan gosling

[justus]

Thanks, had only been given a week to understand this theorem and your videos really help my understand it 👍