Why underdogs do better in hockey than basketball

A statistical analysis of luck vs skill in sports.

Sources:

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In his book, The Success Equation, Michael Mauboussin places sports on the skill-luck continuum by using a statistical technique earlier demonstrated by sports data analysts. He found that season standings for the NBA reflect skill levels more so than the seasons of other major team sports, with NHL hockey being the sport closest to the luck side of the continuum. In this video we explore the characteristics of the sports that either enhance or diminish the influence of luck on the results, and we'll walk through the method for calculating the contribution of luck.

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[jackstone]

I love how chess is just chilling at the very top of the skill spectrum while I rely on my opponents making mistakes in my games

[BrazenBullXXX]

Hockey has the quickest shift time in sports and the NHL has Salary caps to make the league more balanced so it would makes sense. I think this is why people are drawn to Hockey including myself. We love the underdog story and the ups and downs. It makes every victory that much more sweeter.

[CuriousPug]

This is 10% luck, 20% skill
15% concentrated power of will
5% pleasure, 50% pain
And a 100% reason to remember the name

[OG-enol]

I think the NHL just has the tightest salary cap which increases the parity in skill between teams.

This study measures the luck in each league, but not the sport inherently

[abdirabiosman]

We can all see that Vox are Knicks fans. Showing so many Porzingis highlights and taking shots at the Nets 😂

[uuuummmmYea]

It's interesting the way the this study works. In reality what is being measured are the leagues and not the sports. NHL due to salary cap will never have a super team, thus increasing his "Luck" factor. But there are people taking this to measure the player skill in the comments, which is wrong. Ice hockey is arguably the most difficult team sport in the world due to speed, physicality and INDIVIDUAL skills such as skating, shooting, reflexes, and passing abilities which are all learned abilities. What makes a sport like basketball more difficult is the fact that we're not all born to be 7ft tall.

I don't mean to take anything away from basketball, because I'd lose to just about anyone, any size in that sport but just to reference the video he mentions that in Football there are few skill positions and the game mainly focuses on the head coach and quarterback. That's because no matter how skilled you are at blocking people, you're not going to be an NFL linemen if you're 5'6" 170lbs it's simply a physical impossibility and this was mentioned briefly about basketball players as well.

[GoTFCanada]

But does the continuum explain why Washington always gets eliminated in the second round?! :D

[calebholliman]

“Basketball is farthest away from random”

NCAA March madness; am I a joke to you!

[bas]

again Vox making an interesting video about something I didn't think of. Well done

[maryssadennis]

As a hockey fan, I was a little annoyed at first at the assertion that hockey is more luck than skill. But then I realized that the luck factor is what makes hockey so exciting to watch. Your team could be losing, but with enough luck they could pull ahead. A weird puck bounce, an unintentional deflection, a slip on the ice—all of these could make a big difference in a game. There’s no doubt that hockey players are very skilled, as are all these athletes. But it’s the unforeseeable happenstances that keep fans on the edge of their seats. Enough is left to chance that no team is necessarily guaranteed a win (or a loss). Luck kind of evens the playing field (or rink, I guess, lol). Every game is a roller coaster ride. And that’s why I love it. I mean, aren’t all team sports fans there for the ride? To react to what’s happening? To be entertained? This video just made me love hockey even more 🏒

[TonioRickDiaz]

One of the main reasons why there are more underdog stories in hockey is because the NHL does not necessarily have a certain 'stacked' team. The NBA, on GSW for example, out of 5 starters, 4 are all-stars. In the NHL, the most I can see is 5 per 20 men on Pittsburgh (Matt Murray, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin). Every other team has an average of 1 star per team. The NBA has all of their talent stacked onto 2-4 teams, and it is always those teams competing. The NHL has many teams with good players, so it is not uncommon for an upset to happen, for example, Nashville vs Chicago this year. That is basically the equivalent of the Pacers beating the Cavs in the NBA.

[loganweaver]

Ironically the closer to the luck side you get the the more you don’t have to win the genetic lottery, the closer you get to the skill side the more you are winning the genetic lottery.

[noahcrichton]

lmao im here after tampa just got swept😂

[tydebehrend]

Am I wrong for saying this might be a scale for what sports are more predictable and not so much about how much skill is involved?

[jacksondolly]

I love how every hockey fan got up in arms over this video saying, "Hockey doesn't take luck! it's all skill" etc. If they actually watched the video, he says, ALL PROFESSIONAL SPORTS REQUIRE AN INSANE AMOUNT OF SKILL. it's just the flow of each sport. Basketball has an insane amount of chances, most of them are converted; in hockey there aren't that many clear cut chances to score. Same with any sport where there is a goal and goaltender. This video isn't a debate on which sport requires the most skill; it's to observe the differences each sport's outcomes result from both skill and luck combined. For team sports vs individual sports, it is easy to say that skill is the obvious factor in winning or losing, and the difference in skill is also more readily apparent. With more people in the game, the predictability of success isn't as clear cut. a really skilled player's contribution is less conducive to their team winning than if it were only him/her vs the other team's best player.

[TheDiddler]

they need to take into account that fact that NHL is the only one of those sports that has a FULL salary cap and salary floor. you can't have the golden state warriors in the NHL the salary cap won't let that happen and because of the salary floor teams are forced to stay a little more competitive than the NBA.

[Waafa]

This is true because, before the season even starts you can pretty much  guess who will be in the NBA finals, NHL you can't.  Also 8 and 7 seed teams can easily beat a 2 or 1 seed in the NHL, in NBA its almost impossible.

[jibrilosman]

this is what my dad told me every time the Maple Leafs didnt go to the playoffs

[foodhi]

4:57
Var haunts us football fans wherever we go.

[bakersbread]

Where is professional fidget spinning?