Decoding the 2024 Indian General Elections

On June 4, the ballots of roughly 650 million Indian voters will be counted in the culmination of the country’s eighteenth general election. While voters are expected to deliver Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party a third consecutive victory, the race appears more competitive than many pundits had predicted. What surprises did this election deliver? What do the results tell us about the national political mood in India? And what will the new government look like?

Join Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and director of the Carnegie Endowment’s South Asia program, for a conversation with Sunetra Choudhury, national political editor of the Hindustan Times, and Rahul Verma, fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and visiting assistant professor at Ashoka University. Together, they will analyze the results of the election and its implications for India’s future.

[XuechengLiu-rezb]

An informative discussion with excellent analysis. Thank Milan, Sunetra and Rahul for your contributions.

[muditjain]

It was a vote against Modi rather than for the India alliance. And similar was the case in 2014 when it was a vote against the Congress than fir the BJP

[mohdbilalabbasi]

Anthony Gonsalves from Golmaal also here

[rajendradangi]

RSS part.... There is story in the print by Sanya dhingra which says there is hurtburn in local RSS activist in UP for various reason one is ignoring RSS workers and bringing candidate from outside (Congress) and giving them tickets... Also not consulting RSS on ticket distribution in UP.... Many RSS activist stay away from campaigning for BJP in UP.

[rohiticku]

Great discussion. Lovely to see Sunetra too, she was one of better anchors on NDTV.

[jovianjollity]

An interesting discussion. One significant topic that wasn't addressed was the contrast in terms of party structure and its influence on building grass-roots networks: dynastic parties ( the main parties of the INDI Alliance, like the Congress Party, Samajwadi Party and the DMK) vs. the BJP, with its egalitarian party structure ( all members are workers or ''karya kartas'), no family privilege (everyone starts as a 'karya karta'). The Trinamool Congress (TMC) in Bengal is also dynastic in structure, although it did not join forces with the INDI Alliance in the recent elections. Such a paradox that the so-called leftist/'secular' parties, are dynastic in nature.

Another significant topic not discussed in much detail was identity/caste politics, particularly in states like Uttar Pradesh, as Rahul Varma mentioned. Obviously, both the Congress Party and Samajwadi Party have exploited it to their advantage in U.P. The DMK ( part of the INDI Alliance) did the same in Tamil Nadu. Media reports also mention that the INDI Alliance used the fear factor, alleging that the BJP wanted to win 400+ parliamentary seats in order to change the Constitution and remove government reservations/quotas for the underprivileged. Rahul Gandhi's electoral message of a caste census and doing a deep probe or "x-ray" of the wealth of the privileged and redistributing it, was rather disingenuous, coming as it did from the scion of one of the most privileged families ( with a lot of undisclosed wealth- ref. the 'National Herald' scam), as well as that of his alliance partners like the DMK 'First Family'- M.K. Stalin and family (that's right, even the Russians were reportedly in disbelief when they saw his passport during his visit there) and AAP leader, Kejriwal.

One more significant factor was the giving of 'freebies' by the INDI Alliance partners. Reports mention that the Congress Party promised cash payments of Rs. 100, 000 ( 1 lakh)/ 'Guarantee card' per 'minority' woman-voter in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress Party handed out similar 'spending cards' to 'minority' women-voters in Karnataka during the State Assembly elections, more than a year ago. When the recipients of the 'spending cards' (supposedly worth Rs. 5000 each) tried to use them in shopping malls, they found that it had a zero credit.

The DMK party is reported to have actually handed out free cash ( Rs. 100, 000) per voter in the state of Tamil Nadu. In fact, this has long been their practice. A lot of free cash in Tamil Nadu is believed to have originated from narco-traffic and the liquor trade, which many top DMK party members have laundered through real estate and commercial film production. This is leading to a corruption of democracy ( particularly with the INDI Alliance partners) and the influence of drug money into Indian politics. Host, Milan Vaishnav, mentioned that the Congress Party's funds were frozen, perhaps to pre-empt foreign money like the Soros funds from influencing India's electoral outcome.
In fact, Modi's post-election speech contained an emphatic mention of doubling down on "corruption".

One does not know if the uniform civil code-UCC (on marriage, divorce and succession) will be put on the back-burner under the new NDA coalition. It may be moved to state governments to implement, particularly in BJP-ruled states.
INDI Alliance parties and states ruled by them talk about 'secularism' but pander to the Muslim 'minority' ( of 200 million and growing) that wants to continue with sharia marriage laws, particularly polygamy, while all the other communities, including Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Zoroastrians and Jews, follow marriage laws based on mongamy. In fact, the Constitution of India recommends a uniform civil code, as has the Supreme Court of India, repeatedly.
It's only in India that the left and Muslim voting blocs can demand constitutional 'secularism' but refuse to allow the implementation of a secular uniform civil code.

The role of social media and the role of AI (specifically OpenAI) used by the Congress Party, with short fake 'bot' videos against the BJP, to influence voters is reportedly being investigated and talked about in Indian media discussions.