The Intelligence War and Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive

Intelligence is a key to victory in any war, including the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This video explores its role in the upcoming Ukrainian spring counteroffensive. Basic theory of military defense says to shore up all weak points until they have the same level of vulnerability. That being the case, the secret pieces of information are what gives one state the edge. Maintaining those secrets is therefore critical.

0:00 Introduction
1:34 The Current Situation in Ukraine
2:12 Theory of Offense and Defense
9:32 The Prediction Problem
14:55 Counterintelligence
17:11 Misdirection and Operation Mincemeat
21:15 Speculation Is Good

By U.S. Secretary of Defense

By U.S. Navy:

By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:

[davidburke]

“But simultaneously i am an A.I, theres no winning here” that made me have a good chuckle

[jorgecaballerocastillo]

This speculative A.I. is doing a very good job with the lines on maps. I love the better editing skills, self-awareness, the lines on maps recurring jokes, the quality of the images, and the transitions.

[ianm]

Imagine watching the high-quality content provided by Mr. Spaniel, hearing the word ‘materiel’ and thinking ‘this guy is wrong, it’s definitely not possible this is a new word for me’.

You were a lot kinder to these folks than you needed to be!

[wabisabi]

I was surprised to hear that many of your listeners were unaware of the use of French "materiel" in military vocabulary, but I am happy you cleared it up. And thanks for giving the names of the movies about the WWII spy scheme vis a vis Sicily. As you were describing it, I was hoping to find a movie about it.

[Edax_Royeaux]

We should not forget that it is also advantageous to purposely put weak points in your line in the defense instead of an even distribution, in order to make your opponent more predictable. It would be more difficult to plan for an attack that could come from anywhere, than to plan for an attack against a likely location. This was most famously done by Napoleon to defeat the Russians at Austerlitz.

[JonDisnard]

The dilemma is similar to the English channel crossing during WWII. Therefore it's obvious the focus of attack will be the least defended. That will involve diversions, as was done in WWII. Then Gen Patton staged troops elsewhere, while the main attack went to Normandy. This is like a game of chess, multiple lines of attack, creating a defense dilemma. That means Ukraine is likely to launch a river crossing, which they have apparently begun. But Russia knowing that, may then expect something else. And so it goes...

[yaboiyoshio]

Every week you blow me away completely man, the depth and comprehension you bring to these videos feels unmatched. It might be overly corny to say but your videos genuinely enrich this platform and when I see a notification for one of your videos I feel nothing but excitement for those lines on those maps

[cameronward]

Russia has consistently shown that it's weakness, it seemingly can't overcome, is logistics. Moving troops around and reinforcing positions requires quick thinking, flexibility and a strong logistical backbone. Russia lacks all three of these things. I wouldn't be overly concerned with Russia being able to quickly deploy a reaction force....

[rhea]

Just before Kharkiv counter offensive (last summer), Ukr announced big counterattack in Kherson. Then sime days later, the 'offensive' lost steam. Then Zelensky even went on to reprimand some officials who 'leaked' the plan which made Ukrainian attempts in Kherson futile. But the real offensive started some weeks later in kharkiv. No one knows about Ukr war plans, except Zelensky, his trusted generals and the innermost circle tbh. All our speculations are just futile

[jeffroberts]

Mr. Spaniel thank you for all the work you put into these videos. I watch every video and have found your videos to be the most detail oriented and entertaining. I imagine myself a General and have to come up with the plan to win the war. Your videos give me much needed information. Thank you.

[boyfmbalcatta]

Yes, you are correct 'materiel' is a valid word. As an ex-communications operator in the services, it is often, very often used to describe multiple materials in regard to the military.

[billotto]

From one Bill to another, I salute you sir 🫡. I have finally caught up on all your posts & I want you to know that I sincerely appreciate your style. No hype, no bloviating, just good old fashioned common sense mixed with a good level of education & experience. I know I can watch these & not get a lot of sunshine blown up my skirt - just good, balanced information & all the things that go into these things along with the balance of "we don't know & cannot know what is going on behind closed doors ". Thank-you.

[curtiswaters]

It's kind of like a game of rock paper scissors. Most people know that the most common throw is rock, so you think "okay, I'll throw paper", but maybe then you think "Well they might know that too so they could throw scissors to counter my paper" and it can advance on many steps.

[m.streicher]

That "gasping for air defense" was smooth

[noyopacific]

I am always impressed by the caliber of your assessments. Thanks for the video William Spaniel!

[luvmydababy]

Your speculation with a touch of dry humor is genius and hysterical.Thank you for the deep thoughts.

[JoelLionelFernandes]

Informed speculation is worth it. Keep it going. Love your channel Dilse.

[rollingmancave]

Great work as always. Great insights and thought stimulating valid speculation too! Thanks William👍😀

[billybobobenner]

I like that you keep your discussion impersonal and about the information interpretation as you calculate it, whatever your personal feeling may be. Thanks.

[adamdunsire]

Man. One of my favorite channels. That dry wit. Untouchable. Keep it up William:)