Sea Levels Are Rising Faster Than Most Pessimistic Forecasts

Climate change is causing oceans to rise quicker than scientists’ most pessimistic forecasts, resulting in earlier flood risks to coastal economies already struggling to adapt.

The revised estimates published Tuesday in Ocean Science impact the two-fifths of the Earth’s population who live near coastlines. Insured property worth trillions of dollars could face even greater danger from floods, superstorms and tidal surges. The research suggests that countries will have to rein in their greenhouse gas emissions even more than expected to keep sea levels in check.

“It means our carbon budget is even more depleted,” said Aslak Grinsted, a geophysicist at the University of Copenhagen who co-authored the research. Economies need to slash an additional 200 billion metric tons of carbon — equivalent to about five years of global emissions — to remain within the thresholds set by previous forecasts, he said.
The researchers built on the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s models, many of which only consider the last 150 years, by incorporating data going back several centuries. The new observations show about a half-meter of sea rise by the end of the century can now be expected with just a 0.5 degree Celsius rise in temperatures. Oceans could rise more than 1 meter at 2 degrees Celsius, a trajectory that will be easily passed under current climate policies.

“The models we are basing our predictions of sea-level rise on presently are not sensitive enough,” Grinsted said. “To put it plainly, they don’t hit the mark when we compare them to the rate of sea-level rise we see when comparing future scenarios with observations going back in time.”

The conclusions follow last month’s warning that rising temperatures have melted 28 trillion metric tons of ice — equivalent to a 100 meter thick sheet of ice covering the entire U.K. — making the worst-case climate scenarios more likely. The new methodology for tracking sea level change could help insurance companies, real estate developers and city planners erecting tidal-defense systems.

“The scenarios we see before us now regarding sea-level rise are too conservative – the sea looks, using our method, to rise more than what is believed using the present method,” Grinsted said, adding that his team at the Niels Bohr Institute is in touch with the IPCC about incorporating its results in next year’s sixth Assessment Report.

[pmvdmeulen]

Magnetic pole shifting isn't because of carbon emissions. Our weakening magnetic shield isn't because of emissions. Our magnetic core is impacted and powered by our sun and the electric current sheet. Look at our oldest human texts, look at the extinction cycles. This isn't new.. it's a recurring event.

[ksfinancials-investingands]

We must help the planet as soon as possible.

[magdalenem]

That's why Obama bought Ocean front property😂. Ya'll are talking head FOOLS!

[johnhamilton]

dumping garbage in he ocean is why the sea level is up not global

[adamreed]

Goodbye New Orleans and Southern Florida.

[danwohlslagel]

I have a friend who has worked for Dade County ( Miami, Fl ) for 20 years in Environmental Management. He says that there has been virtually no change to the shorelines and beaches around Miami due to change in sea level.

[uf]

When I was a kid they told us half the east coast would be under water and the world would run out of food by the year 2000.

[danwohlslagel]

The Panama Canal was engineered for sea levels of 110 years ago, why is it still functioning?

[john-lenin]

Forecasts are linear. Reality is exponential.

[ljmtac]

to solve all earth problem erase 70% of the humans

[groveavenue]

I have been listening to this alarmist information for a considerable time. However, every time I go to the beach near my nearest city I see the same old sea level at a beach that does not look as if it is endangered. Am I missing a point here? :)

[GoWestYoungMan]

We may not be able to stop sea level rise but at least people have the sense to stop building along the coast.

[francopanigaia]

how comes the world's biggest expert on sea levels was excluded from the panel and his measurements completely disagree with this take?

[freshimpactco.]

Mass deforestation is detrimental to our environment, our health, well-being and the richness of our natural ecosystems, unique micro-climates, and it's diversity.

However to reverse such trends over the past 100 years would require a great deal of sacrifice globally.

Let's be real, carbon fixing is not realistic, will not regulate global output and is a waste of time.

Focus should be on global re-rorestation and creating habitats for wildlife and less on carbon emissions.

I for one believe our children and future generations deserve to have what previous generations had.

I do not want to be part of the generation that destroyed everything and left nothing for our future generations

[warfighter]

Just make it code to have white roofs to reflect the same area the now melted poles would reflect. It will def help dramatically.

[gregb]

Somebody better tell Obama since he bought a multi million dollar house on the ocean

[haunterbuythem]

interviewer: Cut 200 gigatons of carbon Is it realistic?

Do yo want to live?

[brandonlarrabee]

Ever notice that the experts that they use are the same people you see at the local marijuana dispensary