Bookies Do Go Wrong In Their Poll Prediction- Gujarat is no exception| WHAT DOES THIS DATA SAY EP 68

"Gujarat elections are heating up. The Election commission has finally declared the poll and counting dates. With this our news channels have got fodder to run their channels. All of them are invariably shouting out the so called ‘exclusive’ opinion poll results.Many of these opinion polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP. Most of them predict that BJP would land up getting between 120 and 135 seats. The Congress would stand decimated and the Aam Aadmi Party would make a poor debut.The Bookies too are predicted landslide win for the Bhartiya Janata Party.
However, if you dig deeper into the data, these numbers become hard to digest and are really not back by any solid numerical evidence. The opinion poll agencies and the satta bazaars are going two major reasons –
The 10-14% strong Patel community will vote en-mass for the BJP. Hardik Patel, who is 2017 was agitating, is now in the BJP.
There is no Ahmed Patel so there is no one to take care of the Congress ground cadre.
AAP has no credible local leader.
As we know, the exit polls do go wrong in their predictions. The Satta Bazar too is no exception.
In this episode I show how the data does not support the poll opinion polls. In addition, I recollect a few elections where the satta bazar prediction not only went wrong, they went horribly wrong.
So, there is nothing for us to believe or not believe these poll predictions. I would rather wait for the election results. But one ting for sure is that if the BJP were to win 135 seats, a lot of interesting statistics would come up.

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[umakantswami]

Congress winning 120 seats in Gujrat election

[simonvarghese]

These survey reports are considering the EVM rigging plan with the blessings of EC.

[kumardhanapal]

No other party in the world is like BJP IN Gujarat. How there is no anti incumbency to the ruling party after 27 years of ruling? How it could be possible to increase seats tally after so many failures finally the bridge collapse.?

[gpsgrewal]

I agree with analysis . This time polls will be wide off the mark like Bengal . Looks like pollsters/ satta market are predicting ; perhaps they are doing sponsored job

[kumarpradeep]

People of Gujarat should show the wisdom and keep AAP away as Kejriwal is shaky and not trustworthy

[rameshg]

Ur doing a superb logical analysis. Ur analysis for sure can give clues, never a prediction. Also, every time Aap rose to power, people didn't tell it out and poles failed to predict.

[netaambani]

You had given a clear impression that BJP would be in a bad shape getting less seats than present

[BlackStar-ogef]

Congress votes will split due to AAP, so bjp winning grandly is possible. Not supporting any party though, just my view.

[giridharank]

You have selected 3 examples to your advantage.But there are so many examples where the exit polls are found correct....

[hardikgoswami]

Free men can take it government how does to feel
Yes some of this necessary daily itema people's have to demand price will be definitely can go lower so all people's are daily life is easy but price hike is big problema because mostly job people's can never afford price hike...
But free free free mins what free mins destroy economy