The Math Behind How Betting Odds Are Set | Mach | NBC News

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The Math Behind How Betting Odds Are Set | Mach | NBC News

[reversEngiener]

Low information video. No math involved at all!

[fademejake]

This video misses one VERY important piece of reasoning behind where betting lines are set for sports. There ARE predictions being made, but not necessarily regarding who wins or the final score. In most cases, the odds makers are less interested in what the outcome of the event will be, but on how the betting line effects how people bet. Generally, they want half of the money to be bet on each side. Usually a bettor wagers $100 to win $90. So, if 10 people bet on Team A and 10 bet on Team B, if team A wins the book takes in $1000 from the losers and pays out $900 to the winners, profiting $100. And if Team B wins? The book makes the same amount of money. That way the house is guaranteed a profit no matter what happens. That is why you will occasionally see the line change mid week even if there have been no new developments (player injuries, etc). It often just means that too much of the money is being bet on one side, so the line gets adjusted to entice action on the other side. Many times after a game you will hear talk radio pundits talk about how 'wrong' the oddsmakers were because the final score was nowhere close to the line that was set. If the line that they set balanced the books and guaranteed their employer a profit they may have been much more correct than people think. There are of course many other factors that come into when talking about parlays, money line bets and the like, but I have confined my comment to simple point spread and over/under scenarios for simplicity. The same underlying principle applies to all different kinds of odds setting though: guarantee a profit.

[loualcaraz]

My friend in college spent 15 years working as a mathematician for the US defense department. He left to become one of the highest paid mathematicians setting the odds for a Vegas sports book. He never talks about his job no matter how much he’s asked.

[equilibriums]

And there's always the possibility of fixing a game to cover the spread

[crusherven]

Seriously? Could have been a 30 second video, including intro and outro. "They have super secret algorithms based on how well they think the teams will do. Fin."

[albrown]

This video was so pointless, on the coin flip you took the lonnng route, just to get to a 50/50 chance for heads or tails, and then a longer route to say idk how odds makers really figure there odds because it's privileged information...🤦🏾‍♂️

[FinancialClout]

“Bookies don’t share how they create their models”

…welp, time to click off this video

[HistoryOfEnergy]

Why they give the bookmaker a big nose 🤔

[teamsters]

Just get Jake Paul and boxing it’s fixed every time

[bethbartlett]

Oddmakers have always inspired an amazement in me!
...and I lived in Las Vegas 20 years.
Sports betting - once in a while for the thrill of the game.

*NEVER BET ON YOUR TEAM and NEVER EVER BET MOVE THAN 2 GAMES* - Wisdom from (Lefty Rosenthal - arguably the best known Oddsmaker)
Put all your wager on 2 and realize a profit payout over the calculated potential loss.

"(...I put 2 of my Bookie's kids through college on the Over and Under." What Movie is this line from?)*

[hootoconnor]

Until the pandemic I was a sports better in Vegas...mostly inplay...and this is illiterate .

[funnyanimals]

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[mariomarin]

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[alain]

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