Autonomous Driving. What is the impact on industry and market?

If cars are self-driving, it transforms more than just the traffic. Business models and value chains will change too. The influence that autonomous driving will have on the market and the industry is the topic in the @IAA MOBILITY Visionary Club.

Taking the robo-taxi to a concert, reading in a self-driving car as you get through the daily traffic jams on the way to work, or having the parcel you ordered delivered to your door by a self-driving mail van: The scenarios associated with autonomous driving are highly promising.
Even if the precise figures vary, common to all forecasts is that the global market for autonomous vehicles is set to grow. The market researchers at Fortune Business Insights, for example, are predicting a 31.3 percent average annual growth rate for the forecast period from 2021 to 2028, following a pandemic-induced collapse in demand, and growth to USD 11.03 billion in 2028.

For the industry, the critical factor will be how much money can actually be earned using the technology. So what does the business model of the future for autonomous driving look like? The answer: Diverse. That’s because, in a market that will range from private vehicles to self-driving trucks to robo-taxis, there will not be just one business model, says Danny Shapiro in the IAA MOBILITY Visionary Club. The Vice President of Automotive at AI computing experts NVIDIA believes that “the possibility of increasing safety and efficiency and offering entirely new services creates offerings that people will pay for.”

Mobility services as the trailblazer

Widespread introduction in private vehicles would, however, be constrained purely by the continuing high costs of sensor units and computer modules, which are essential elements for self-driving vehicles, says Paul Thomas. By his calculations, they would currently drive the price of a car up by an estimated 30 to 40 percent. Thomas is CTO at Project 3 Mobility, a company working on an ecosystem encompassing a mobile app, autonomous vehicles, and a matching infrastructure for the urban space. He is convinced that mobility service providers will be spearheading the spread of autonomous driving.

Shapiro similarly does not see the triumphant march of autonomous driving as starting with private vehicles. His assumption is that the initial boom will come in trucks: “There is massive demand in the commercial sector.” Self-driving vehicles can support drivers, and even replace them entirely. That lowers wage costs and increases safety for people, for instance in mining, where potentially dangerous maneuvers could in future be handled entirely by machine. In the volume market, however, it will be the passenger vehicle that drives change, believes Thomas Dannemann, Senior Director of Product Marketing at the technology group Qualcomm: “Simply because people will love it.” Sending the car off to search for a parking space by itself, handing over the steering wheel on long motorway journeys – customers will appreciate services like that.

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