The Two Opposite Futures of Self-Driving Cars

Self driving is here. But not like you thought.
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I’ll admit it. I’d gotten cynical about self driving cars. It feels like every 3 years, we’re told they’ll be here in another 3 years. Recently though, I saw a video that shocked me: Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise, called for a taxi and a driverless car arrived. He was just one of hundreds of people across San Francisco who are getting into their ride and finding no one else inside.

So... are self-driving cars finally here?

I took a deep dive into that question over the last few months, trying to piece together all the other self-driving stuff I’ve heard about to get the full picture. I ended up in San Francisco, interviewing Kyle himself!

The answer I found to whether self-driving is here is: YES. Just not like I thought. It’s not the sci-fi version I was expecting. Instead, it’s actually two kinds of autonomous vehicles, battling it out on the roads right now. And our lives are about to look very different depending on who wins.

Chapters:
00:00 Self driving cars are finally here
02:15 Levels of self driving, explained
03:32 Where are we now on self driving cars?
05:07 Thank you Masterworks!
06:10 The big fight for the future of driverless cars
07:04 Interviewing Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise
08:20 Robotaxi meets world (and police)
10:00 The two near futures of self driving
11:52 The long term future of driving

Important note (because I never want you to be confused about whether something is sponsored): The only sponsor in this video is Masterworks, which means they got to approve their ad section beforehand, but didn't get a say in the rest of the video. Cruise did not pay me for being part of this video. I did an interview with the Cruise CEO and Cruise let me see their Bolt car, for which I'm very grateful!

Bio:
Cleo Abram is an Emmy-nominated independent video journalist. On her show, Huge If True, Cleo explores complex technology topics with rigor and optimism, helping her audience understand the world around them and see positive futures they can help build. Before going independent, Cleo was a video producer for Vox. She wrote and directed the Coding and Diamonds episodes of Vox’s Netflix show, Explained. She produced videos for Vox’s popular YouTube channel, was the host and senior producer of Vox’s first ever daily show, Answered, and was co-host and producer of Vox’s YouTube Originals show, Glad You Asked.

Additional reading and watching:

Gear I use:
Camera: Sony A7SIII
Lens: Sony 16–35 mm F2.8 GM
Audio: Sennheiser SK AVX and Zoom H4N Pro

Music: Musicbed

—
Welcome to the joke down low:

What has 10 letters and starts with G-A-S?
Automobile.

Find a way to use the word “start” in a comment to let me know you’re a real one ;)

[MegaMathnerd]

OK, I admit -- I'm Cleo's Dad. But really, this is a great episode! The best part is how she organizes the coming driverless car/truck revolution to explain "the messy messy middle." Oh, also -- yes, the Batmobile WAS a driverless car.

[jdmarino]

In all of your videos there is usually a spot (or several) where you lay out the landscape of the topic and say "we are here". In this video, the 2x2 grid really helped me understand what's going on (and what is not). Two thumbs up.

[cunningham-code]

If I could shout something at Cruise / Waymo - where they are needed the most is if they can solve the “last mile” problem with public transit. I don’t need to ride a self driving car all the way to NYC, I just need it to get me to the train station that’s a ~5 minute drive away.

[bendunaway]

A topic close to my heart. As someone who cannot drive, self driving cars is a miracle technology that would change my life.

[rjfaber]

I've always said that self-driving technology will come to trucks before cars. Having a car drive itself is a neat gimmick, but having a lorry drive itself is a major, major cost saver to the logistics industry. Ultimately the one with the bigger financial incentive behind it was always going to come first.

And as for myself, I'll continue to use the mode of transport that has been 'self-driving' (at least from the perspective of passengers) for its entire existence: Trains. They're so much better than even the most utopian self-driving cars I've ever seen being presented to us.

[Megan-ntdm]

Self driving cars would be amazing for people with disabilities. My sister has special needs and isn't quite able to drive on her own. One of her friends has a seizure disorder, and while he's been seizure free for a while, he still can't drive. This would also be amazing for visually impaired people. Since we have trash public transit, it could do a lot for people

[Victor-khrh]

People want driverless cars because they hate having to drive (emphasis on having to). But there are better solutions for this problem which would lead to more sustainable and livable cities, meanwhile also addressing major societal issues like sky rocketing housing prices and even obesity. What we need is cities and urban spaces that are designed for people rather than cars.

[christostsiam]

We had around 2016 driverless buses in my hometown (Trikala, Greece) going on a scheduled route in a seperate bus lane, around the city center. Even if it lasted only for 6 months, since it was a EU program, and despite having maximum speed of around 20 kmph, it was a rather unique experience, travelling with one of the first fully independent automated vehicles

[howardkearney]

I'm a Tesla Model Y owner with FSD Beta. I enjoy testing this in my area. Each release the car gets better and better. It is like watching a teenage driver get better and better through experience. You have to be control (or in the case of teen driver, scream!) at all times because in this 'messy time' things will happen you will not like. Great video.

[jefffree]

Love how you tell stories, Cleo. It's so accessible.

[coreyclothier]

Cleo, I have worked in the autonomous industry since 2009 and my company leads others through the transition (cities, airports, state DOTs, etc.) and we also help the autonomous makers with their deployments (installation, risk assessment, safety verification...). We also educate people about the benefits & path to get to autonomous. And I have to say, your video is the BEST explanation I have seen. I am going to share this throughout my network. VERY well done!!! I'm so glad that this popped up on my feed this morning!

[johnnyforeigner]

I think we need another episode on the different approaches between Tesla and every other autonomous driving company.

[diotough]

The main issue of self driving cars is ... liability. Who's responsible for the results of the inevitable bugs and errors, the failures of certain systems, etc? That's the reason why Tesla requires drivers to still monitor everything and be ready to intervene. In theory their system is capable of safely maneuver streets - but just in theory. Lane assistants are also a perfect example: they work fine 9 out of 10 times but sometimes you still need to intervene. Or speed control with stop & go and distance sensing tech: works great most of the time but you'll regularly need to intervene.

So who's responsible in case of an accident that's caused by a malfunction of the autonomous driving system? The owner of the car? The "driver" who's now more a passenger? The Car manufacturer? Nobody at all ?

[ArcherSeven]

My 2022 Hybrid F-150 has adaptive cruise and lane centering that, when used, has the truck primarily driving itself when I drive from Maine to Colorado or Alabama, and it's awesome. But I can also turn all of it off. When I get to a dirt road in the middle of nowhere, or a snow covered logging access road, I can shut off everything, even the traction control, with basically just one button.

I hope the future keeps giving me these options. I have no problem with the truck driving on the highway, in fact, I'd love it if it were good enough I could flip my chair around and play a board game with people in the back seat. But when I'm alone on a gravel road, where the only person I'm really putting at risk is myself... or when I need to get to a hospital _right now_, and I'm not waiting for an empty 4am red light to do it.... I hope I can still take over.

[hayskeys]

Cool topic, but would've appreciated some more in-depth details. Like how they're training the cars, what sort of tech, sensors, etc. Future plans for fleets, city expansion. What their biggest challenges are. Last few videos have been interesting, but without enough depth to learn anything new (like reading headlines without the article). I really do enjoy Huge If True and am excited to see your journey. Thanks!

[humphrey]

Great video Cleo! I learned so much :)

[vigneshpadmanabhan]

As a data scientist myself working on similar problems I am really happy to see cars getting smarter but I would love to see the traffic signals/lights getting smarter too .. that makes a lot of difference or find a way not to have traffic lights at all.. if things are getting automated. That’s what I would call progress.

[erickhughes]

This has become my new favorite YouTube channel. Thank you for taking deep dives in complex questions and showing them in a fun and well made manner.

[leononymous]

Suggestion for a new video: How future jobs will shift / the bigger potential of automation and autonomy. 

Positive side: There are already less and less truck drivers (although that has also to do with working conditions), with autonomy you would not need them and they could do other work, same for taxidrivers. Now think about other jobs you do not really need like cashiers in the super market, train drivers, many jobs in factories can be even more automated etc. This is also important as people get older and older and less and less working people have to uphold the economy. Interesting times ahead!
(FYI I know that this was only the positive side ;)

[robot]

Self-driving cars arent as good as they sound. (but they are better than normal ones)
1. For the trucks, they could just use a train that can hold much more cargo and could also be autonomous.
2. Regular public transport could also be self driving and it can carry much more people and also be more efficient.