Is China LYING About its Grain Situation?

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0:00 China Grain Situation
2:39 Lower Canadian Wheat Production
5:12 GMO Wheat Approved in US
6:28 Used Cooking Oil News
8:45 Ethanol Production
9:52 Flash Sales

Here’s the latest news in the grain and biofuels markets:

🌾 China’s Import Restrictions:

Barley and Sorghum: China is proposing new restrictions on barley and sorghum imports to address domestic oversupply and improve local prices. Sorghum imports have surged, nearly doubling this year, with the US supplying 80% of the total. This follows earlier restrictions on corn imports for the same reasons. Currently, Chinese corn, sorghum, and barley prices are at or near their lowest in over three years, and corn inventories at southern ports are nearing a two-year high.
🌾 Canadian Wheat Production:

Lower Estimates: Canada’s wheat production is now expected to increase by about 4% this year to approximately 34.4 million metric tons (mmt), lower than the previous estimate of 35.1 mmt. The reduction is due to hot and dry conditions impacting crop yields. Global wheat stocks have been declining for five consecutive years and are projected to hit a nine-year low in the 2024/2025 season, exacerbated by unfavorable conditions in Russia.
🌾 GMO Wheat Approval:

HB4 Trait: The USDA has approved the production of GMO wheat with the drought-tolerant HB4 trait, developed by Argentina-based Bioceres Crop Solutions. This herbicide-resistant wheat is now approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. The approval is expected to benefit both farmers and consumers, as per the US Wheat Associates.
🌾 US Used Cooking Oil Imports:

Surge in Imports: US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) have surged by 240% between 2022 and 2023, with China supplying 60% of the total. The boom in the biofuels industry is driving this increase. Recent EU tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports are expected to further boost US imports of Chinese UCO due to a global market surplus. Concerns over fraudulent UCO imports have been raised by US farm organizations and lawmakers.
🌾 US Ethanol Production:

Decline and Demand: US ethanol production decreased to 1.07 million barrels per day last week, down 2.5% from the previous week but up 2.2% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.6 million barrels, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a 3.4% increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1.2% week-over-week and 4.5% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up by 1% compared to last year.
🌾 USDA Flash Sales:

Recent Sales: On Wednesday, US exporters sold:
264,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
165,735 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates and make sure to adapt your strategies to these evolving market conditions! 🌽🌾📉

[GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

Note: USDA announced a sale of sorghum to China a couple of hours after this episode was uploaded. LOL.

[Luke-brhr]

Blows my mind how shipping cooking oil halfway around the world is "greener" than stuff that is literally grown in our own country

[robkent]

As a Canadian Wheat and Canola producer I would agree that the yields in our area of East central Alberta will be down by 1\3 of the last few years.

[zachbrueggeman]

U.s farmers need cattle back on the farms. Better return on investment running corn thru the animal and then putting the manure back on the field.

[konopelskifarms]

Wheat crop in North west central Saskatchewan is terrible. We have a 60 bushel dry land stand and it’s yielding 33bu/ac. Huge disappointment. Shrivelled small kernels. Light weight barely low yields. Canola yields will be way down. Stats Can still has it wrong. Plus we just had a massive rain system on dead ripe shrivelled grains. Quality is going down the tubes with this rain.

[beetfarmerbryce]

Wheat stocks are the lowest they’ve been in years and yet we’re selling wheat in the 3’s after protein discount. Something fishy going on around here.

[CuriousEarthMan]

What IS the market price for used Chinese cooking oil, and where are the prices posted? Also for other country's and U.S. used cooking oil prices, where can they be found? Thank you!

[kurtkalenberg]

No country would ever lie about how much grain they have or need. If China has plenty of grain then they shouldn't import that much from SA then right?😂

[Mstreet]

Chinese officials are worried their corn farmers are going to get hammered by low prices this fall. They can turn corn imports on and off with their import quota but they have no quotas for sorghum or barley. Chinese feed mills will buy whatever is cheap...if they're allowed to do so.

[tonykirby]

I'm all for helping farmers but I disagree on putting ethanol in avgas. Avgas needs to remain pure.

[farmermatt]

GMO wheat awful idea don’t do it farmers

[twt]

China today has 100, 000 1 hectare small private grain farms. America once did too. Domestic small markets matter.

[anabolicamaranth]

Mr. Ping would not lie, how could you even suggest that?

[Ganyersel]

That's the 'deep dive' on wheat production that I needed to see. Just a shame that the low ending stocks to use doesn't appear to have any impact on this years current price.

[jeffac]

I don't understand how russia can continue to flood the wheat market for so long.

[billboon]

They are buying not from the us system ... They are settling of wheat trade outisde of the wheat trade own by the us

[denniskurtz]

Another rain bomb went off in ND again last night. 1.5 to 2.5 inches. There went more quality in the toilet. Been harvesting at 17 to 18 moisture running it through dryer to keep some quality. This is turning out to be the harvest of hell.

[GrainMarketsandOtherStuff]

Good morning! Will China buy ANY corn from the US during the next 12 months?

[davezalinko]

Stats Can has zero clue what’s out there. 50 lb wheat and durum won’t go far.

[NB-lhpj]

We import and export genetically modified crops? (🤔)