Did the Big 12 Get Lucky? | Conference Realignment | PAC-12 | Brett Yormark

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In this college football video about conference realignment related to the Big 12, Couz will talk about the chain of events that led to Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State joining the Big 12 Conference. He will list four ways luck played a part in the expansion.

On August 4, 2023, it was announced that the PAC-12’s four corner schools; the Utah Utes, Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils and Colorado Buffaloes, would all be leaving the PAC-12 and joining the Big 12. Most attribute the salesmanship of Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark for making this happen. However, there were other things that led to the schools jumping ship. There are also other things Yormark has accomplished that may be attributed to simple luck. Couz will talk about it. #conferencerealignment #big12 #pac12
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You make your own luck, I was told in the service. But you make good points here, Couz.

jcatkins
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Preparation involves envisioning all the pieces in motion and knowing what elements you can control to maximize your chances. Yes, I think things broke exactly Yormarks way but he put the conference in a position to sieze the opportunity. He stated his goal to go West long before it happened, so he showed the 4 corners schools who he was and how he would operate, giving them a vivid contrast to their old commissioner. Now, hopefully he can turn the same magic and come up with 4 Eastern schools. Good stuff Couz!

mikefurbee
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No question there were factors that helped the big 12 in this. I also believed Brett knew if the pac 12 wouldn’t take the deal that the big 12 would take it in order to put the pac 12 in a rougher situation.

scottybthebaylorking
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4:01 Hey there neighbor (I am an Ohioan). A lof of conferences want to get paid like the Big Ten (including the PAC-12). However, every conference except the Big Ten is with ESPN. That means that there is a finite amount of money to go around. The Big Ten has 3 networks (FOX, NBC and CBS). Also the PAC-12 has not been to the college football playoff since Huskies in 2016. The Buckeyes went last year. When high school recruits don't see you on a national scale for 7 years, you don't have that demand.

CarlaJenkinsTV
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Very good information as expected from you

FL_Cyclone
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I look at this more as Geo and Brett both sitting down at the big media blackjack table. Geo is the type of player that will play 3 hands at the same time no matter how many games he losses. Brett on the other hand is playing at 3rd base. Brett gets to see more of the cards being played before he has to make his decisions. Not only does Brett watch Geo, but he knows that the previous P10/P12 player (Larry Scott) left Geo in bad shape. Just like in blackjack, there is luck involved but the smart player keep a level head and knows when to walk away. Once Brett had his 4 teams, he walked away when there was still 4 teams left on the table!

raywilk
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Fair self-analysis from the BIG12 perspective. Why I like this channel.

The BIG12'sultimate fate hung on a thread and outside of its control until the networks gave up on the then PAC and approached the new BIG12. BY was smart enough to seize the day. To me, the open question is whether BY recognizes that the new BIG12 is now set as a Tier 2 and act accordingly (other than perhaps some free Hail Mary moves) or will he be wasteful in an attempt to get back to Tier 1.

tarheel
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Yormark has done a great job! And timing worked out for him too. And Oliver Luck did a great job getting WVU into the big 12 while we had a winning football coach. Then we got Neal - we probably would not have been invited to the Big 12 during his regime. Whew 😅

nazmoking
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Plus adding Az and Utah for basketball makes I think the Big 12 the best BBall conf.

davidgeorge
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“Success occurs when opportunity meets preparation.” Zig Zigler

michaelwood
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I think it’s been a little of both, you do have to have some skill to recognize and act when that luck opens a door.

MisplacedHillbilly
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It's about time the Big 12 got some luck. I still want U Conn.

lorenzohaynes
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No question the Big 12 benefitted from multiple mistakes by the Pac 12, over the course of decades, and western expansion by the Big 10. But it all would have meant nothing if not for two important moves by Yormark: 1) cutting ahead of the Pac 12 and accepting essentially the deal they rejected, 2) successfully attracting Colorado as the first domino.

mrmonkeysays
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At this point it doesn’t matter whether it was luck or skill. The task for the Big 12 is to retain B.Y.’s services for Act 2 of this drama. If they can, then the question will be is can he find additional revenue or savings to bridge the gap between what the SEC and Big 10 are getting from their media contracts. The money the Big 12 schools are getting now will sustain them through this crisis period, but it won’t keep its members from jumping ship at the first opportunity.

iTrackChannel
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12:59 I don't think it is luck. I think that Brett knows that he has gotten the PAC-12 teams that the Big 10 did not want. The Big 10 got the 4 PAC-12 moneymakers from major cities (USC, UCLA Los Angeles), (Oregon, Portland) and (Washington, Seattle). The Big 12 got the second-tier PAC-12 schools. Also Brett knows that the Big 12 is the only Power 4 conference without a playoff championship. The ACC (Clemson), Big Ten (Ohio State) and SEC (Alabama, LSU and Georgia) all have one so $30 million is fair market value.

CarlaJenkinsTV
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I Heard Washington and Oregon is coming to big12 !

davidfriedline
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What's missing in your analysis is that Arizona asked the B12 for an invitation, and that's what triggered the B10 to offer Washington and Oregon. It may be that Arizona would have changed their minds at the last minute, but it was the previous negotiations with Arizona and the b12 that caused the b10 to move. So, no. Yormark wasn't lucky. He laid the ground work that brought the PAC 12 down and the last three of the four corner schools into the b12.

richardoneal
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"Luck is the residue of design." - Branch Rickey. I think sportswriters are a sneering bunch of second-guessers who imply they would do it better but they just don't have the balls.

orangehoof
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Such a PAC-12 thing to do to play the victim and feel entitled to $20 million more lol. Good episode as always.

pharaohosam
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I don't think it was luck. I always assumed Yormark knew what was going on with the B1G. If anybody was paying close attention, it was obvious the PAC-12 was going to be in trouble in the summer of 2021 when the SEC announced they were adding Texas and Oklahoma.
I'm a Buckeye fan. I watch many of AD Gene Smith's press conferences on YouTube. Here's what I learned beginning in the summer of 2021.
The B1G directed their network partners to run the numbers on several of the PAC-12 schools: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, and Utah with the intention of poaching schools to create a West Wing, with possibly as many as six teams. The conventional wisdom in the B1G was that it was obvious that the first schools to be poached would be USC and Oregon. Well, surprise, surprise, surprise, the numbers didn't work out that way. The LA market (USC and UCLA) turned out to be the first priority with Oregon and Washington coming in second. Those four schools represented about 65% of the PAC-12's football eyeballs. USC and UCLA were never going to be left on an island for five years. By the summer of 2022 it was obvious--turn out the lights, the party was over for the PAC-12.
Then-Commissioner Warren took shots at including Stanford or Calford in the West Wing. Those deals fell through. I don't know any details about this, but it took some back-and-forth to convince Oregon and Washington that initially receiving partial shares was the best deal they could expect.
From the get-go, all the presidents and ADs knew that the West Wing was strategic. I have a lot of confidence in Brett McMurphy and Greg Flugaur. However, they both bought into "the B1G doesn't want to be seen as big meanies" trope.
I spent thirty-six years in Corporate America. CEOs could care less about being seen as "big meanies." Executives do listen to their lawyers, but when "push came to shove, " Oregon and Washington were always going to be gobbled up in 2023. Colorado's exit just made life easier and a bit less risky for the B1G's presidents.
Why did it take the Texas and Oklahoma announcement to trigger the B1G going after the PAC-12? I don't know, but the B1G definitely had a gameplan in their hip pocket.

wally