The 2024 Election Map Based on the Latest Poll in ALL 50 STATES!

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
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*Thank you to my channel members!*

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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
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[fencserx]

This man makes basically the same video every 3 days and I Watch every single one 😂

[windowwiz]

No way Wisconsin goes Harris but Michigan goes Trump

[benusmaximus]

If I was the Trump campaign I’d just spend 50% of my resources in Pennsylvania and Georgia - they could literally lose Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin but still pass the 270 mark!

[joshualawrence]

If you listen to mainstream media then you would be thinking Trump has no chance.

[zhongxina]

Did he put that michigan poll out of his ass? Litterally all the recent polls show average of 3 point lead in Michigan. Besides there is no way trump wins Michigan and loses WI, PA and AZ.

[maddoxlane]

alright so are we just going to ignore bro skipping the 6 most recent polls showing Harris up in michigan

[coreyrhodes]

Rasmussen report has Trump kicking it.

[xxDakestMaidenxx]

I swear these poll companies were sooo wrong in 2020 and 2016 i only trust Rasmussen they were super accurate in both elections

[BryanM]

You're cherry-picking the polls you quote. For instance, in Michigan, there have been 3 polls since the Redfield polls, completed 11 days ago. Those polls show Harris ahead by 4, 2, and 5 points.

[rumplerug]

He says in the video that this prediction is based on the latest poll not polling averages. It is in the title as well. Pay attention and just not focus on what color he uses to fill in each state. He is trying so hard not to use polling averages because if he did, his audience would rebel. Poor guy just wants to present polling and he has to worry about his audience being unhinged because of how Trumpist it has gotten because of how much Trump was winning.

[kristoffliftoff]

Yo how do you have Michigan red and Wisconsin blue. That’s gonna be reversed

[nippsliter]

I don't know why you are using the Hill, which is not an unbiased source. No polling data should favor each side, it should be neutrally biased.

[fatssalvador]

I bet this severely unnerves you that Harris is “getting closer”. Is there a setting where you would actually making a video where she is going to win. I know your work from 2020 and you hated Joe Biden and it likely made u cry trump lost (which he did and you will not deny it)

[bigtexan]

It’s razor thin but the Dems have momentum 😅. I predict a Harris Walz victory in November. Trump is fading…

[jw]

The breakin and burglary of Trump’s campaign office in Virginia tells me Virginia is very much in play.

Yes, this really did happen, despite the crickets in the media.

[fredericcortat]

OLD POLLS !!!
The polls used to analyse the situation in Michigan and Pennsylvania are NOT the latest ! Since the Michigan poll mentioned in the video, 7 newer polls were published, Harris winning 6 of them. Likewise in Pennsylvania, since the poll mentioned in the video, 8 newer polls were published and Harris won the 6 most recent ones.
Regarding Georgia, the poll mentioned is not the latest either. However, the latest poll gave the same result as your Fabrizio poll, so it doesn't matter in practice.

Is there any particular reason why you would chose to use old polls to analyse the current situation?

[michaelellis]

Always excellent analysis. Will you be live on 5 November?

[MarkSibthorpe-ygzu]

Being from the UK I don’t have “a dog in the race” but listening to both candidates, Harris does not inspire me (the VP does), Vance tag of weird does seem spot on. I listen to Trump’s speeches and he seems to ramble on talking garbage or moaning about what a victim he is. He must have personality disorders and can’t understand after to listening to him why they would even consider voting for him.

[mr.gamewatch]

This channel is accused by both sides of being biased towards the other side haha. I guess that's a good thing

[weneedmore]

On your Sunday video you had trump winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but not Michigan, today's video had him winning Michigan and not Wisconsin?