Can Europe survive Putin's 'energy blackmail'? | David Woo

Ukraine wants a war of attrition but Russia wants to avoid it at all costs. To end the war quickly, Putin needs to (1) show the west that Ukraine cannot win the war and (2) raise the economic cost to Europe for supporting Ukraine. This means over the next 6 weeks we should expect Putin to launch a major offensive while using Russia's energy leverage (or blackmail depending on your point of view) to the hilt. This will have potentially massive ramifications for not just Europe but the global economy and financial markets. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.

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#russiaukrainewar #naturalgas #inflation
european central bank david woo

[foxmusic]

You forgot about Putin's leverage on URANIUM on USA and Europe

[MrRedsjack]

Now Russia has closed it's main gas pipeline to Germany.
Considering that Russia GDP is about the size of Italy how long can Russia handle keeping the pipelines closed while fighting an expensive war with such a small GDP?
Wars are very expensive.

[SagaraUrz]

On the military side, Russia is slow at taking over Ukraine because it cant use massive artillery and they avoid shelling cities. Ukraine dirty tactics of not letting civilians evacuate and hiding military assets in public buildings is complicating things for Russia.

[MrRedsjack]

The biggest missed question is how long will it take for EU countries to install enough LNG ship terminals to be able to buy enough cheaper american and middle eastern gas?
If Russia diverts it's gas to India and china those countries will buy less middle eastern gas and the situation should move towards a restoration balance.
The main bottleneck seems to be the lack of sufficient alternative pipelines and sufficient gas terminals.

[ajaysingpho]

I think now Russia will closed d door for west except few countries Russia will go for east, Africa and North America

[zulqadarrrashid]

Afghanistan 😂👍😂
Vietnam 😂😂😂
Afghan Army trained by NATO 🤣🤣

[jasboyh]

Will. not be dinning out this winter when restraunts are closing down because they can't pay energy prices. Business won't be able to compete because of high energy prices.

[corneliussulla]

Blackmail...so Russia started with the sanctions?
Here we go, the typical "Its OK when WE do it" attitude.

[deningsonwankhar]

Not russia but usa that black mail in truth

[felixxie]

Thanks David, great analysis. I am curious about your view on Iran nuclear deal. How possible will it be restored and what’s the impact on oil price?

[kekoa]

End of unipolar rules-based world order and the beginning of multipolar world order based on international law.

[zulqadarrrashid]

Vivà le Putin 👍💖💖💖💯👍
His Excellency President Vladimir Putin is the greatest leader of the free World 🌍🌍
We fully support all his actions in Ukraine and pray for his success and glory 🙏
May God bless him and the people of Russia Amen
From Pakistan 🇵🇰🇵🇰

[michael.]

Thanks again for your analysis David. Can Putin afford at all for the war to drag on during winter ? If not, do you think a cornered Putin could use nuclear weapons by then, as a last resort "solution", if he sees no alternative to make significant progress in its war against Ukraine ?

[nisamb]

Cause of Economic boycott of Europe oneself

[dheerhamal]

All world need oil, gas, food, medicine.

[gatoshepherd]

Apparently a point which has eluded the US leadership z that when one has the resources u can't dictate prices and how those resources should be disposed of. The game of arm twisting ea other has now come to a screeching halt. It's not advisable to learn it the hard way. US have all the requisite infrastructure to stand alone but relys on other countries for it's survival.

[milastran]

Thank you for the video. Can you please take a look at the food crisis in the horizon or next year?

[avatar]

You media portray Russia as a villian..
When in fact they are nicest people in the world

[johnsnowkumar]

The Russian army has a traditional mindset:: they thought if they just showed with guns near ethnic Russian villages of the Donbass being shelled by neo Nazi fighters of Kyiv, that the massacre of ethnic Russian villagerz and their houses and ethnic Russia farms, to be destroyed with Howitzer artillery pieces would stop. The Azov fighters were just one group of soldiers being to neo Nazi groups which was used by Kyiv to destroy ethnic Russian villages firing shells with Howitzer artillery pieces for the past 7 years. Putin definitely does want to prolong the war: he never dextroyed the airports of Kyiv and Lviv city where all the weapons are being smuggled in. Just going by common sense. After all, in essence, communists believed in Robin Hood policies: Tac the rich and pass ibon to tge poor. or steal from the rich and distribute riches and gas and oil among the poor. Supply of pipeline supplies of cheap gas and heating oil and /;or crude oil during the early years of the post ww2 era. Likely they needed gas and similar supplies. So they shouldn't have threatened to discontinue purchasing gas and oil and other stuff from Rusdian Federation. Neanwhile the shelling of vilkages of rebel areas by neo Nazi groups of Ukrainianbsolduers has slowed diwn. They say: We killed 60, 000 Russian troops of Russian federation coing inbto defend Donbass ethnic Rusdian villagers. Neo Bazi Kyiv fighters: "We neo Nazi howitzer artillery gunners from Kyiv have devastated nearly all villages of the Donbass. We killed near 1 million ethnic Russian civilians of the villages of Donbass. This is enough." For now. The analogy between America and Rusdia is uncanny. Some Americans say they are originally from Great Britain and Ireland. Russians say they are originally from Kyiv, a place some of their forefathers supposedly left after the break up of the Catholic church in Kyiv and the birth of the Orthodox church in Kyiv in 988 AD or so. Kyiv never became void of ethnic Russians after many Ethnic Russians left for Moscow and Siberia about 1000 AD or so, and Novtogod and Siberia about 1000 years ago. Similarly, Great Britain did not become empty of Brits after some Brits left England 500 yrzrs ago for Plymouth, Massachusetts as Pilgrims and separately left for Jamestown, Virginia about 500 years ago to grab gold. Despite this move by some Brits to the western hemisphere, Great Britain itself did not become empty of Brits.tg

[jamesrobertson]

What is unclear to me is if Putin succeeds in weakening European support for Ukraine, how does he reward ones like Italy, which you posit may be more friendly after the election on September 25? Can he send natural gas to just those countries who support him in Europe where the pipelines are no longer in his control?