How To Predict A Recession

Timing and predicting recessions is an important task, not only for traders looking to make a profit but also for policymakers looking to correctly time stimulus measures.
Not many people are against government stimulus measures during difficult times, but the problem is that recessions are difficult to spot in real-time, and policymakers often provide help too late and then offer support for too long.

DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.

[diane.moore-]

Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $800k in the last four years.

[michaelschiemer]

Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

[corbinwest]

This EPB guy is a stud. I was a finance and Econ major and continue to learn from him. Thank you!

[cyclingphilosopher]

Not only useful for traders or policy makers. It might also be useful for long term investors. After signal 2 it might be prudent to increase cash allocation somewhat.

[jooanchoi]

The fact that Fed's reactionary policy is exacerbating the boom-bust cycle cannot be overstated.

[Muhzyy]

Never fails to disappoint. It's been a blessing to learn from you. Thanks for all that you do!

[blinking_dodo]

Clear explanation with good graphs and analysis...
NICE.

Does the gov not know about this channel or something? 🤔

[MrAllenissa]

Words can't describe how amazing your content is. Thank you for your hard work and informative content!

[curtisl]

IMO the current situation is not solvable by the Fed. Fiscal policy must solve it, but congress is not reliable to say the least.

I do take issue with how you downplay inflation. I'm order for your argument to work, you need to convince me that hyper-inflation is extremely unlikely or not as bad as the Fed worsening a recession.

[michaelbananas]

This comes back to the whole flaw with Keynesian economics in general, and MMT more specifically. The idea that central planners can (and will) moderate the up and down swings in the economic cycle. The problem is they are much too ready to moderate the downs (albeit slightly late) and much much too slow to moderate the upswings. The economic indicators you speak of are not used because they would force the humans in control to lose the key to the kingdom.

[nonexistent]

I think there's a major geopolitical component influencing policy makers decisions this time more than usual. Dollar hegemony is a focal point driving decision making more than easing recessionary pain.

[mitchprime]

Another outstanding video, thank you for all the work you do.

[PublicCommerce]

I think it's a mistake to believe that the Federal Reserve is trying to avoid or mitigate a recession when they have clearly engineered one to stop inflation. In fact I wouldn't rule out that they're hoping to make it as deep as possible before political opposition to the looming job losses and the impact on the 2024 election forces them to ease -- perhaps prematurely in their minds. Why would the Fed think this? Well one is the lesson of the double dip recession that occurred in the late 70s and early 80s, but maybe more significant is the demographic challenges that the labor market faces which may make future inflation stickier. Where I live most restaurants are still chronically understaffed, and given the waves of retiring boomers is it realistic to ever think this is going to get better? Maybe that has something to do with why the Fed is being more aggressive this cycle.

[financialm]

Signal 2 was triggered in December with an unavoidable recession following 6 months later on average. So we probably have about 45-75 days left. Got it.

[LuisManuelLealDias]

This is very interesting. Might have something to do with the crazy housing market refusing to properly signal we're in for a recession.

[gomesdiogo]

I'm a simple man, Eric upload, I come to watch

[phillipgeorge]

I just discovered your channel via YouTube’s algorithm and your content is amazing! You are a true asset to this platform!

[FF-poxi]

Layoffs have already started in almost all major buildings focused structural engineering firms in my west coast city. Multiple friends getting laid off or receiving no raises this year. Seems to align with what you’re saying so far as construction being the canary in the coal mine for a recession. But we will see!

[richb]

This video is 8 months old and basically no recession is in place. The one thing missed here is the layoffs and reduced consumer spending. That hasn’t happened to any great extent. However, I believe we could see a quick recession in late 2024 when rate cuts start and deflation impacts business. If unemployment rates stay low the recession will be very quick before a complete reversal will happen and the economy enters the expanding portion of the cycle. Although, there may be a soft landing where the economy enters the expanding cycle without a dip.

[jlcmarble]

Very interesting and unique ..
Never seen this angle before ..
And im watching a stupid amount of hours on YouTube.
I want to mentally record everything on this recession.
I was in high school on the beginning of the last recession.