Is China Telling the Truth about their GDP Figures

China's economy has been struggling for a while now, but the latest figures & delayed GDP announcement suggest things are getting worse. So in this video we'll unpack three big reasons that China's struggling to get a handle on their economic situation

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[tommoise]

The water shortage impact should have been mentioned. I mean economic recovery from the worst drought of the century is a big big thing

[lexslate]

Authoritarian regimes undermine themselves. Promotion comes from being seen as loyal by your superiors more than from ability, and since a liar always makes a better offer than an honest person, high offices are prone to filling up with con artists.

[cabbage]

I love the credulous statement about China's low covid death rates right after the explanation about decades of wildly false GDP data. You think the Chinese government might lie about other aspects of society and life in China?

[helenzhao]

My grandparents live in China and they have to take covid tests every 2-3 days. Last week they didn't go to the test because they had to go to a relatives birthday. They got a warning that if they did the same thing again they would not be allowed to leave the area(they live in a residential area that has a few shops but there are only 5 exits with gates and officers controlling people entering and leaving).

[MeawinOtolep]

The exchange rate & rising manufacturing costs are also a big factor.

In all the factories I've been to here in China, they've all mentionned that their historic clients have reduced, delayed or cancelled their orders due to:
- Customers in the West not buying as much
- The strengthening Yuan against the Euro has made Chinese exports less competitive
- Rising manufacturing costs in most provinces, except the poorest.

[guyh]

The Soviet Union was supposed to have had the second largest GDP after the USA throughout the cold war but we now know that they cooked the books. Autocratic states do that.

[Emanon...]

GDP growth isn't a viable parameter in China when you have what amounts to 80 million apartment units unfinished or standing empty.
In other words, paying someone to dig a hole and fill it up again might boost GDP growth, but the economic value added is net zero.

[BenjaminKeller]

I wouldn't call Russia and Iran "emerging". More like crumbling from the inside

[Code_Machine]

You forgot to talk about one very important issue in China, the water crisis

[allliquid]

China is also in a crippling drought. At the moment and so electricity shortage as the hydro electric dams are unable to run at full capacity

[masterchinese]

Good points. I would also add in the lashing out by the gov't at its own tech giants.

[Kageyamashigeyo]

There's this qoute from a series called Chernobyl that goes, "Our power comes from the perception of our power." And for an authoritarian regime such as China that obsesses itself with having a superior image to its peers. It's probably not unlikely that they'll fake or even exaggerate their GDP numbers. China is willing to go through such lengths to project its might as detrimental as it may be. It might alright for immediate short term benefit, however for the long term it is potentially damaging and may even hurt everyday working Chinese people. Simply put China is putting itself on the path of self destruction.

[zwojack]

the fact that the debt trap is 1) possible and 2) already has been used is more than enough reason to not work with China in that regard.

This is for me, a German, right now VERY IMPORTANT because Scholz wants to sell part of a port in Hamburg to China.

[Taverius]

Emperor Xie? Lying to preserve face? Surely you jest!

[DarkHarlequin]

It's a sunday! Guys take a break every now and then. The news will be insane for a while and we'll need you to make sense of it. Do not to destroy yourself 💕

[WTH]

Prior to COVID, much of China's economic growth was based on the construction boom and growing international markets. But now, the construction boom has faltered and revealed vast swathes of Tofu Dreg tactics, international markets are shifting to lower cost countries for production, and power shortages have sidelined much of major industry. Add in the aging workforce, the disillusionment of younger workers, and extensive corruption and the potential production rates are bound to fall.

[krisvenin]

There is a 4th point that is rarely talked about. It's the drought in china. THe fact that they have only 7% of drinking water (compared to 20% of world's population). A lot of their underground water is non drinkable or not usable at all.

Edit: The drought is affecting their energy production, since they are reliant quite a bit on dams. Nuclear Plants require a lot of water for cooling, even coal mining requires water ...thus energy crisis.

[jurgencelmeta]

Just a small point about the calculation at 1:37. Percentages don't work that way. Say for example we had 100 USD, if this amount shrank by 2.6%, then we would have 100 - 100 *0.026 = 97.4 at the end of the first quarter. If the amount grew by 3% next quarter, then we would have 97.4 + 97 * 0.03 = 100.322. This means that the resulting growth for the 6 months combined (from 100 to 100.322) is actually 0.322% instead of 0.4%. The difference might look minor in my example (only 40 - 32 = 8 cent difference), but if we are talking about numbers in the 10s of trillions, then it would result in quite a lot of money.

[andrewmountford]

Every Chinese company has at least 3 different sets of accounts. 1 for the owners. 1 for local government. 1 for Central government. This level of opacity & corruption exists in every aspect of daily life.
No way does the Chinese government know what it’s GDP is.

[mihaidumitras]

That briliant sponsorship slide in was smooth af, ngl