Forecasting & the drivers of AI progress | Danny Hernandez (2020)

_Originally released May 2020._ Debates around the future of AI can sometimes be pretty abstract and theoretical. Danny Hernandez of OpenAI's Foresight team hopes that providing rigorous measurements of some of the inputs to AI progress so far can help us better understand what causes that progress, as well as ground debates about the future of AI in a better shared understanding of the field.

Chapters:
• Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
• The interview begins (00:01:29)
• Forecasting (00:07:11)
• Improving the public conversation around AI (00:14:41)
• Danny’s path to OpenAI (00:24:08)
• Calibration training (00:27:18)
• AI and Compute (00:45:22)
• AI and Efficiency (01:09:22)
• Safety teams at OpenAI (01:39:03)
• Careers (01:49:46)
• AI hardware as a possible path to impact (01:55:57)
• Triggers for people’s major decisions (02:08:44)

----

_The 80,000 Hours Podcast_ features unusually in-depth conversations about the world’s most pressing problems and what you can do to solve them.