How can Rachel Reeves make her first Budget a success? | IFS Zooms In

In our first ever live episode, we're going to look at how Rachel Reeves can make her first Budget a success.

It will have been 117 days since Labour took power before we finally hear what is in the Budget - in that time we’ve heard about £22bn 'black holes' and the difficult economic situation the UK faces. We’re going to think a bit about some of the challenges facing the Chancellor, what she can learn from previous Budgets and how she can navigate these complexities.

Paul is joined by colleague Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS, Lord Stewart Wood, a Labour peer and former member under Tony Blair’s government of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Council of Economic Advisers, and Stephen Bush, associate editor and columnist at the Financial Times.

00:00 The Treasury's Budget Deadlines
00:18 Introduction
02:54 Fiscal Situation and Economic Choices
05:11 Political Strategies and Risks
08:25 Labour's Promises and Public Expectations
12:05 Taxation and Public Spending Dilemmas
26:40 National Insurance Contributions Debate
27:45 Election to Budget Timeline
29:41 Speculations and Expectations Management
30:38 Budget Secrecy and Leaks
32:36 Historical Budget Comparisons
35:05 Treasury Ruses and Strategies
38:02 Final Thoughts and Predictions

[InstituteforFiscalStudies]

Timecodes:

00:00 The Treasury's Budget Deadlines
00:18 Introduction
02:54 Fiscal Situation and Economic Choices
05:11 Political Strategies and Risks
08:25 Labour's Promises and Public Expectations
12:05 Taxation and Public Spending Dilemmas
26:40 National Insurance Contributions Debate
27:45 Election to Budget Timeline
29:41 Speculations and Expectations Management
30:38 Budget Secrecy and Leaks
32:36 Historical Budget Comparisons
35:05 Treasury Ruses and Strategies
38:02 Final Thoughts and Predictions

[georgethompson]

We have a government that’s managed to be as unpopular and now considered less financially competent than the opposition who have no leader and that’s quite an achievement. They’re also introducing employment laws that will stifle small business expansion. It’s so easy to spend money on the wrong infrastructure project like Horizon. What happens if you borrow extra money and a major water company suddenly goes bust? Worried?

[advocate]

The broad shoulders are sloping and sloping off quietly (in places like Henley wealth advisors are the conversation du jour). They've got to go for the middle, but I suspect they'll keep pushing until they regret it. Ideology never stops to engage its brain and, in truth, this govt simply has far too little biz experience to understand the sector.

[jaaguitar]

07:00 "they have handled the politics fairly well" 😂 Not biased at all...

[JasperB]

I thought this was interesting. I liked the guests as well. Nice work 🙂

[stevenwilliamson]

They have had 14 years to think about it.

[Dunk]

Could the two non-IFS guests have been more pro-Labour? Just the opening question to the first of them about how Labour have handled the politics set the tone. How on Earth could he sit there and suggest that they have. The've spent too long getting the buget out and have spooked all levels of UK businesses and potential investers. Labour either didn't do a good enough job of using their opposition Parliamentary Privilege to analyse the data (you don't need 100% of the numbers) or they lied (or both), knowing that they were going to reverse all their growth leading policies and turn to raising taxes and making cuts. Essentially, they spent 14 years saying "Don't do that" to the Conservatives and have come in and are following the same path that the Conservativews took. Which basically informs us thay they know the economic issues are the economic headwinds of 2008 debt, Covid furlough debt, Covid itself and the inflation spike/war in Ukraine.

[xXtra-vy]

Take home message - scrap budget event...amend policy incrementally after analysis of risks v benefits

[kayedal-haddad]

Carbon Tax, Land Value Tax (replacing Council Tax/Business Rates), one off Wealth Tax (2% on assets over 10 million), equalise Income Tax with Capital Gains Tax and increase the personal tax threshold to at least 15K.

[jonathanporter]

What does IFS see as the way out of current fiscal reality?

[Carlos-imhn]

Ahhh, the expensive bits. Reality bites, that and actually delivering on the promises and unfunded allocation promises.
Liz Truss tried "bigger and bolder" and look what that got her.
as they say "good luck".

Anyone taking this "Government" seriously AT ALL needs their head looking at. It’s a circus of absolutely useless clowns.

[over-engineered]

Reeves needs to leave the button alone! ref. Hitchhiker’s guide to the Galaxy when the Pot Black’s ship stabilises. The economy needs stability and messing around with the rules all the time isn’t stability. Just leave taxes exactly as they are.

[Lord_Saruman]

blah blah blah - get rid of 25% of back--office individual contributors in the civil service and 50% of management. Whoever is left, focus on simplify, automate and standardize processes. they may actually become somewhat productive and save us a fortune on the annual budget -

[venuslin]

They forget to mention Gordon Brown sold treasury gold when the price was at its lowest.
Taxed company pensions dividends of final salary scheme till companies can't afford to pay towards it. At present, only public sectors have the gold plated final salary pensions, I think.

[stephfoxwell]

Six things.
Reduce Business Rates.
Reduce Employers Nics.
Reduce VAT.
Extend Council Tax to Band Z.
Introduce a modest Wealth Tax.
Close numerous Tax Havens.

[Lilrom]

Wrong statistic on pension tax relief. Most people make large contributions for pension just when they earn most in their lifetime, so in each year it’s a small number of people but many will use the option over their lifetime

[tkcannon]

A rather less interesting broadcast, which featured a few too many smug cackles and chortles. More facts, greater diversity of contributers, and less spin, please.

[jonathanporter]

Stumbling presentation by Paul, too many ermms

[marklangley]

She needs to not bother, and let someone with more qualifications do it properly! Thicko.