US Election 2020: Can you trust the polls? - BBC News

All eyes are on the US election and many people will look to the polls to see who's likely to win. But polling companies suffered a shock in 2016 when they didn't foresee Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton. Did the pollsters get it all wrong?

BBC Reality Check considers whether you can trust election polls to predict the next US president.

Motion Graphics by Jacqueline Galvin

Produced by Jake Horton and Soraya Auer

Narrated by Marianna Brady

[sogra]

Can you trust the BBC? Ask John Sweeney.

[conormacnessa]

Hahaha. Amazing the BBC produce an article on trust. Oh sweet irony.

[QuestionEverythingButWHY]

"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there. "
--Steve Davidson in The Crystal Ball.

[jonsid]

I worked for the largest British polling company during the EU referendum and the last two general elections.
A few accepted facts: telephone polling is notoriously inaccurate, internet polling is only used by those with strong tendencies and the most reliable method (field work) is hideously expensive and long-winded.
There also the unwritten rule that polls are designed to give the answer required by the customer. This is usually brought about by the preamble and preceding questions.
Of course theres also the fact that on a cold, wet day I'm going to sit in my car inventing answers rather than bother knocking on doors for the minimal money they pay.

[BobBob-cnyy]

Privatise the BBC make them work for a living.

[suesmith]

Can we trust bbc 'news'? Very doubtful I would have said.

[godiegodie]

ccn polls had hillary beating Trump by 98%

[dave]

Can you trust the BBC?










Answer: No you can't

[tonys]

One critical factor here is that many are ashamed or scared of admitting they support the occupant of the w/h.

[stevesmith]

A stupid question to the BBC!!. Do you ever look at the comments section after you post an article. Maybe you might get the hint.

[rjones]

Been in this country for 55 years and no one has ever asked me anything. Not sure what this poll thing is any more.

[paulhoskin]

Can we trust the poles
Yes we can they are good workers

[magatism]

If voting gave you the power, would they allow it.

[QuestionEverythingButWHY]

“The US election is like strapping someone on an electric chair and giving them a choice between AC or DC.”

[SteveLamberts]

Excellent breakdown. I suspect many will still misunderstand the information given here.

[PartTimeJedi]

Even in liberal Massachusetts there are Trump signs everywhere. Yet the polls say he's trailing?

[britanese]

Polls are about as trustworthy as the BBC. #DefundtheBBC

[calvin]

Even the electoral college predictions in 2016 were wrong!

[DXmYb]

CANCEL YOUR TV Licence save £150 every year. A licence is only needed to watch or record LIVE TV and use BBC iPlayer.


It is NOT needed to use catch up services, DVDs and Netflix

[mielerodriguez]

Last time round they were saying she had almost a hundred % chance of winning. I hope President Trump wins again.