What Can We Learn From Expert Gamblers?: Dylan Evans at TEDxWestlake

TEDxWestlake - July 12, 2012

Our first TEDxWestlake explored the accelerating change in the world around us. This change is largely driven by the power of the digital infrastructure built over the last few decades. William Gibson has remarked: "The future is already here -- it's just unevenly distributed." While we can't predict the future, we tried to uncover and mine some of these veins.

We were lucky to have speakers from a wide array of disciplines, from kinetic art to philosophy to hybrid social ventures, to come share their stories with our audience of business students and innovators, and help us wonder about what might lie ahead.

Dylan Evans is the founder of Projection Point, the global leader in risk intelligence solutions. He has written several popular science books, including Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty (Free Press, 2012) and Emotion: The Science of Sentiment (Oxford University Press, 2001). He received a PhD in Philosophy from the London School of Economics in 2000, and has held academic appointments at King's College London, the University of Bath, the University of the West of England, and the American University of Beirut.

In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.

[GoDIEP-adventures]

One more thing professional gamblers know the battle is within themselfs and not the actual game! This is what makes us!

[BURNINGAFROBEATS]

Whoever you are who can't sleep tonight, is tired or sad, believe that there will be tomorrow that will light up your beautiful days.

You just need to endure a little more, a little more, and a little more ...
Thank you for being patient, thank you for being able to survive. And as you read this, promise yourself that you will be able to get through your toughest days in the future.
Promise to keep smiling, no matter how you are ...

You deserve to be happy :)

[mycommentpwnz]

I'm a life long gambler, and here's something you can learn from me: if you have an edge, or advantage, no matter how small, with enough time it can reap substantial rewards.

[marklittlewood]

The topic covered here is probably the most fundamental problem that most gamblers fail to overcome. First of all let me say that you must first be playing a game in which the odds can be larger than the actual probability at certain points in the game. This is the first fundamental flaw amongst gamblers. They prefer simplicity citing complexity as the enemy when in actual fact the opposite is true. The greater the complexity the greater the opportunity, usually. Just ask a punter why he plays the slots in preference to horse racing and he will say that he has a better chance of winning !, what he really means is that he has fewer variables to consider. The other problem that faces gamblers or at least those playing a game which offers opportunity, is that their approach is based around finding winners and not finding value. In horse racing they focus on whats going to win rather than is their a bet in the race. This is not surprising as their first exposure to Racing is via 'experts' in the media who operate in exactly the same way. Finally one thing the speaker did not touch upon which I think might be interesting is what value or opinion do successful gamblers have towards money. My guess is that ironically they are less driven by it than people think.

[williambaker]

I do ecommerce and this is precisely how I select products to sell. This kind of thinking has wide applications and should be considered deeply.

[EddieMush]

Every gambler knows
The secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep

[rajeshgadda]

Excellent Lesson on Risk Management. Thank you sir, you are a genius

[Veaseify]

Expert gamblers exploit market inefficiencies, they make bets where the odds on offer are higher than the 'true' odds of the bet winning, thats all it boils down to in every situation. Card Counters increase their bets when a deck or shoe is unbalanced enough. Sports bettors take advantage of lines that are inaccurate based on their models. Horse Players make their own book of prices and wager on the runners that are underbet by the public.

Poker winning is based on accurately assessing the range of hands your opponent is likely to hold and calculating your equity as a percentage. You bet if the pot odds are higher than that percentage, although it gets more tricky because of implied odds and variance.

[tradesmart]

As a trader this was explained perfectly

[QuixoteX]

You gotta know when to hold em
Know when to fold em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run.

[Christian_Prepper]

*SAVE TIME:*
*Answer to the title of this video is here.* 11:00

[koroespinacas]

Is it me or does he say Poker players twice when enumerating the 3 tribes? 3:24 3:35

[vampstriss]

no matter what it all starts with discipline, money mgmt, bank roll, will power, and the ability to know when to walk away.

[Sevish]

My risk intelligence test results were enlightening:



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[ellerellerek]

As a profit gambler I must say that I didn't know that there is a scientific explanation of what I do. While watching the video I kept thinking "oh that's exactly how I do it"

[joevalentin]

I am a poker and blackjack player who also played Baccarat. Many people think that Baccarat is a pure game of luck but it is not. Professional Baccarat players will not lose in the game as easily as novices do. The issue of skill in Baccarat lies in knowing the safer bet, the amount one should bet, and when to walk away. In a sense, it is also a game where important skills shall be exercised to increase the player's chances of winning.

[Jessica-gwcf]

All this did was make me log in to my poker account

[danielromo]

The pros walk into a casino with 100 and try to win 10... Vice versa with the casual gambler

[AuditorInvestor]

Really well articulated talk by Mr Evans. Unfortunately the test link doesn't work anymore.

[moneymagnet]

He's wrong you can be a expert & still enjoy it with thrills. You won't win every time just because your expert which will allow you to sustain excitement when you do win!