Russia Retreats & Regroups: What's Putin's Plan Now? - TLDR News

Over the last couple weeks Russia has withdrawn from the Ukraine conflict significantly. They're currently regrouping in the east, but what is Putin's plan from here? What is Russia going to do next?

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[happyelephant]

Maybe worth mentioning, that although they abandoned northern territories by troops they still sometimes execute airstrikes on cities all over the country so we have almost incessant airstrike alert :(

[awaitingbacklash]

The reason military analysts disagree on Russia’s next move is because even Russia probably doesn’t know its next move more than ten minutes before the orders are given!

[LoyalWackGamer]

“You don’t sacrifice thousands of soldiers just for a distraction”

Aragorn: *hold my black gate*

[Frserthegreenengine]

Russia did not retreat, they were carrying out a special withdrawal operation.

[FrostedMike]

Lets not forget moral has changed since Moskva got promoted to a submarine.

[Andrew-obij]

At least Russia is still the 2nd best military in Ukraine

[a-cq]

Well, first point on his new plan was to send the flagship of the Russian Black Sea navy on a special submarine operation.

[SittingOnEdgeman]

It's ironic that the war has reduced into a focus on the Donbas. Putin could have attacked and invaded the Donbas with far fewer men, far less materiel, and at a far lower cost both financially and internationally, if that had been what he did at the start of the conflict.

An attack across the line of contact into Donbas would have been met with shock and outrage, but would not have been the same kind of fundamental upset of the international order that a thrust from Belarus towards Kyiv was. Sending a clear signal that it treats its "partners" as little more than puppets and that it is absolutely willing to exploit them to wage wars of conquest and that it is willing to try to wipe out an opposing regime (vice "just" enforcing territorial claims) is really what scared the West so deeply. Finland and Sweden would not be on track to join NATO today if those northern and northeastern pincers towards Kyiv had never happened.

He paid so much for that one specific element of his gamble. And lost. My hope is that this ends before both sides have ground each other into dust. Even if Ukraine could empty the Russian stockpiles of materiel, it will only do so at a horrendous human cost and cost to its own nation and industry.


Having helped it so much in war, I pray that we in the West are willing to bear the cost of the peace in Ukraine. There are millions that will need aid and assistance to restore even a semblance of their former lives and livelihood.

[forestmanzpedia]

I remember a good quote from CaspianReport saying that Ukraine will fight back hard and therefor overtaking this big country would be too difficult. He said that before the war while many people did not believe Ukraine would put up a fight.

[Ealsante]

Honestly at this point, if Zelensky even suggested giving up the Donbass, the Ukrainians would likely turn on him. Russia's violence, just like that of Nazi Germany, renders a negotiated settlement impossible.

[rsilters]

As Zelensky said multiple times - there will be no talks of giving up any Ukrainian land. Ever.

[HeliumFreak]

Well I'm not in the war so I'm not sure how much of an opinion I'm allowed to have. However I hope Ukraine don't surrender any territory to Russia and maybe even take back Crimea.

[sandman]

Regarding some negotiated settlement with Russia, the dilemma for Ukraine is that any concessions they make, Russia may take but will see it as only temporary until they get more of what they want. Any promises Russia makes in a peace deal they can just ignore, later. They have proved time and time again that those agreements are seen more like temporary guidelines. (Look up the "Budapest Memorandum" and then think of the subsequent annexation of Crimea, as one example but there are many other historical examples.)
Russia's (or Soviet Union, earlier) credibility probably peaked at the end of the Cold War era and the following political changes but took a steep dive again, under the Putin regime. That's not to say that other countries don't play the game of international politics but Russia is in an entirely different league and at the moment, their game is quite nasty and ruthless. They may feel that the whole world is against them but it's pretty much their doing. For example the rush of many small European countries to join NATO is not because their love for NATO but it's driven by their fear of Russia. Many of those countries would probably have been happy to stay neutral if it wasn't for the constant feeling that Russia is stalking them.
In the end, everybody loses, except maybe those making healthy profits in the worldwide military industry.

[brentrawlins]

It might be worth pointing out that the 3:1 rule applies primarily at the point of attack. Hypothetically if the Russians attacked Харків and the Ukrainians had 1000 defenders Font of the Russians could use 3000 of their 30, 000 “extra” troops to attack the town and use the remaining 27000 to either exploit a breakthrough or defend against Ukrainian counter-attacks. However, another assumption is that 10 Garrison soldiers are needed for every 1 insurgent to hold a Territory so the Russians are probably going to be unable to hold anything west of the Donbas region for any significant length of time. Disclaimer: is oversimplified

[burningphoenix]

The Russian army went from being seen as a near unstoppable menace close to the US army, to being an evil Saturday morning cartoon villain that can only hurt civilians.

[legendaryhunter]

If your wondering why countries are considering sending fighter jets and anything air force related, do note that these are from the former Warsaw Pact that were under direct Soviet rule during the cold war and still have their old stockpiles. So Migs, Mi-8s and Mi-24s along with Strellas (Soviet MANPADS) And I can personally say that if the war drags on for another month, these countries will offer up their old Soviet Mechanized and Armored assets after retrofitting and reviving these vehicles after being thrown into storage for 30-odd years

[mab]

To be honest, I will appreciate some honesty from Moscow. Instead of pulling some baffling excuses like bandits, drug addicts, and others. Please just say it out loud: “Ukraine, I want your land cyka.”

[tylerclayton]

Russia lost the battle of Kyiv. And now they make excuses for their defeat

[wetplant]

This is like the winter war in the 1930s where the soviets thought they could defeat Finland swiftly but Finland held. Still Finland had to give up territory but still embarrassed the Soviet army

[mikefooyc]

They're not retreating, they were just granted extended leave to celebrate the momentous occasion of the launching of flagship submarine Moskva, under the command of Captain Neptune twins. The new captains celebrated the occasion by hosting a huge BBQ party on deck.