The Future of Tsarist Russia - Alternate History Tropes

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[possiblehistory]

Hello everyone! If you enjoyed the video please leave a like and a comment, even just commenting "hi" helps the channel out massively! Subscribe for more content like this and an alternate history video every Friday!

[TheEmperorYTP]

Here's a trope that bugs me a lot:
independent confederate states of america abolishes slavery within a decade or two. The confederate constitution forbade any attempts at abolition, slavery was the bedrock of their economy and it's the very reason for the nation's existence in the first place. Imagine if the ussr adopted capitalism in 1942. That's how absurd I find the scenario.

[AttaVonKissinger]

Starting to learn about Russia at University. Fascinating stuff as always!

[crazmapping]

Some of them I have are:

- If Napoleon won at Waterloo there would be a huge French Empire
- America would still be a British colony if they lost the war of independence
- That Germany could have won a total victory in WW2 (like in TNO)
- That the rise of any modern superpower (eg USA/Britain) was inevitable and destined to happen for some factors

[pels_stacked]

Fun fact: the Soviet Union NEVER produced more food per capita than the Russian empire in 1914.

[ooi]

I like it better than a standard alternate history. This could be your big thing, the breakthrough, the staple your channel will be known for

[petersmythe]

"A mixed bag of progress and destruction."
Which to be fair sounds like most industrialization.

[David-fmgo]

I agree to an extent that anti Soviet bias creates rose colored effect on the Tsarist era. However, by the same token pro Soviet bias tends to completely disregard progress made prior to the Revolution. I think railroad building would have been pursued as well as modernization of agriculture and the development of ancillary supporting industries like fertilizers and maybe tractors. Ultimately the shortages that provoked the February Revolution were caused by the collapse in the effectiveness of the rail system. Food rotted in Ukraine, coal languished in the Urals and oil in the Caucuses while Petersburg starved and froze. There certainly would be incentive in any restored/preserved Monarchy scenario to invest in and reform transportation. This then has knock-on effects for steel, iron and coal development as well. I also do see plenty of foreign investment for development of oil reserves in any non-communist scenario ranging from Monarchy, to democracy to military dictatorship.

[braedanquigley]

One thing you didn’t bring up with the economic section is russias birth rates. They went from a tfr of 7 to 2.3. This long term fucked Russia/ussr because this means a smaller producing, consuming base, less minds to innovate, and resources are harder to exploit. So while it’s very likely short term there is a larger economy long term it’s larger

[chrisgarbutt]

I love these new videos going over tropes.
A trope I would like to propose if that if the Confederate States won the Civil War it would be a carbon copy of the United States and rise to become a super power. Or simply abolish slavery after the war because Britain said so, even though they fought a war to preserve it. Many people simply ignore the inherited problems of the Confederacy such as the oligarchical landowning class who dominated southern politics who hated industrialization and democracy. A independent confederacy was doom to become another Banana Republic or Cotton Republic.

[pricetag]

A shame to see this is the only part of the series so far. Keep up the great work, these vids are incredible for such a small channel, you deserve way more subs man.

[MrSomervillen]

I’m super excited for this series!

Can you talk about the (sometimes subtle) ways that pro-Confederate attitudes are reflected in tropes of “Southern victory” alternate histories?

[eagleowl]

If tsarist russia survived then middle aged women would have an unlimited supply of drama shows staring a random Nobel family in tsarist russia.

[thegreatestoctopus]

Really interesting video, I was wondering if you take any alternate histories from the comments?

[reaverfang]

Honestly it'd be better to place a Tsarist Russia in a future setting, post soviet, post-2020s. Especially since the Modern Russian Govt likes to cosplay as a semi-Tsarist force.

[chalovalex]

As Russian I strongly agree with that part that describes "Soviet economic growth". Communists often show statistics of gdp without any understanding what that numbers even describe

[TheArctofireHD]

I think the major hinge-point as to whether Tsarist Russia successfully modernizes or not is if Alexander II is assassinated or not. OTL he was, and that greatly weakened, if not killed entirely, the impetus for reforms amongst the traditional elite.

[lordofefrafa]

2:20 That's kinda disingenuous. All it shows is that Russia isn't changing _relative to them._ You describe Germany and France as growing, yet their line is almost parallel to Russia's (just above Russia's, in the same way that America's GDP growth parallels them from above). If you look at the graph, *everyone's* GDP looks like a slightly-inclined straight line pre-1916. Russia's GDP then takes a big slump for obvious reasons when the civil war starts, and continues for a few years after the civil war. Assuming a Russian victory in WW1, that slump doesn't happen. Seems like an obvious inference to make.

2:57 Why is Russia missing from that graph? I'd love to know where it is. I'd be really disappointed if it turns out that you hunted for a graph that specifically _didn't_ include them because you didn't want us to have a point of comparison between everyone else and Russia. Even then, the graph you used has no consistent message about industrial growth: if it did, then the Netherlands, Spain and Australia would be comparable to Britain.

3:43 After 1905, it only remained so because the tsar was exceptionally feckless and backslided on the promises he made to the Duma and actively fucked around with it to get his way. Originally, he wanted no limitations at all, but then an interesting thing happened: Grand Duke Nikolai put a gun to his own head and threatened that he'd blow his head off unless the tsar accepted the limitations. That should illustrate the attitude prevalent in 1905.

4:23 A capitalist class which would only continue rising as time went on.

6:26 Except Russia has one major advantage all the others except America don't have: lots of as yet unused space and resources inside the country, and not located in external colonies. Whereas Germany's land is all filled up and any further expansion means either a great technological innovation or outward expansion, Russia and America aren't limited like this. And the Soviets made great use of this space, expanding many towns like Novosibirsk and Yekaterinburg to proper cities, and creating major industrial cities like Norilsk and Magnitogorsk entirely from scratch. I see no reason why Imperial Russia wouldn't either.


Also, one thing you don't bring up at all in the video: population losses. Russian Civil War: 10 million dead. Stalin's reign: 9 million dead. WW2: 23 million dead (+5 million Poles). Each time, a significant slice of the generation was cut out, and each time the succeeding generation also had fewer children due to natural decline found in all industrial nations. The result is a *very* steep drop in population growth over time. Prevent that and you have a much higher GDP today, though (again) the GDP per capita is low.

In fact, the low population is the main reason Russia is so _empty, _ especially in Siberia where there is plenty of opportunity and the climate is not the hellscape everyone thinks it is. I know Siberia couldn't ever really match population density with European Russia, but it's still pretty undercolonized even then. Siberia makes up 7/10ths of Russian land, yet is 2/10ths of its people: that means Siberian Russia's population density is around 14% that of European Russia's. Even if it can only hold double or triple that, that's space for 60 - 100 million more people. And as Stalin allegedly said, quantity is a quality all its own.

P.S. for details on the Russian Empire's growth in terms of industry, education, etc, etc, I'd recommend Scott W. Palmer's Youtube channel. He's a professor of Russian history, and he's got a great lecture series up on the Russian Empire. For the relevant time period, check out lectures 19-23.

[amk]

Great video, I can’t help with this being a response video to a whatifalthist video on Russia.

An alternate history trobe I always been confused by is a southern victory, if the south ever did gain it’s independence from the rest of the United States it seems very unlikely the United States would not keep Louisiana Arkansas and basically everything west of the Mississippi, these areas were basically indefensible to the Confederates and for the most part worthless to them while being essential to Midwest trade.

It just seems like a confederate rump state that will be under constant pressure from the United States both on land and at sea would just make for a bad time. Anytime the Confederates would try taking a Caribbean island the superior American Navy would show up and force them out.

It also seems far more likely in such a situation that greater social democracy would take root in the USA without the authoritarian south to drag the rest of the country down.

Just a few issues I’ve always seen with the Southern victory trope

[infinitycookiesh]

Other ideas for future tropes videos:

South america remaining the same
Monarchism everywhere
Big germany
Socialism is always marxist-lenist (anarchism, sindicalism etc... dont take over )