Active Investing in a Flows Based Market | Cem Karsan

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy.

We explore:

- How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk
- Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows
- The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility
- Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024
- Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today
- Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead
- Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment theme

Cem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.

0:00 Introduction
2:00 Geopolitical events and market impact
8:12 Inflation, Fed actions, and market flows
14:00 Options positioning and market structure
23:45 Market outlook for late 2023 and 2024
30:18 Historical patterns around elections
43:22 Rise of passive investing and potential shifts
51:12 AI as a productivity driver and investment theme
59:00 Cem's unique belief about investing
1:04:31 Closing thoughts

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[sethmiller]

anytime I see Cem as a guest, I will watch. Thank you for hosting him -- great insights

[ttk]

Cem is the man. Speaks options at such a high level. Hard to find knowledge like his with out being on the CBOE floor lol ❤️👌

[douglasstewart]

Be proud of your success. You're a channel that doesn't click bait. Keep going...keep growing. Cem will always bump the viewership.

[RamseyPerry-ub]

i enjoyed Cam. For a guy in such a dog-eat-dog profession he seems very joyful, and he has great insights into what's happening. I didn't agree with all his takes, but still very enjoyable to watch. Thanks for sharing.

[SnyderGarcia]

I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Katherine Slone for helping me achieve this.

[aai]

Great content, thank you. Guest very concise and to the point. Keep up the great work.

[KianKianbrownsx]

Thanks for the update, keep up the good work.< Learned a lot from my market journey, especially the importance of living within one's means. With Loraine Souvenir’s guidance, my nest egg has grown to a 7-figure sum. My advice - get an analyst for better financial trade decisions and peace of mind

[B_M]

Cem is fantastic. Loved this interview.

[TheOptionPremium]

Camel's Hump...nice! And as always, Cem was incredibly insightful. Thanks for the discussion.

[aeh]

Always enjoy a Cem interview but there are far too many interruptions from adverts so assume you have set the YouTube monetisation setting on maximum

[OliviaMoore-cs]

I’ve been making a lot of losses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?..

[FoxFlyFishing]

Great stuff as always from you all. Just FYI, I don't know if I'm hearing things but it seems that there is some cross talk from producers or hosts on the stream, faint whispering in the background at certain times. Not a deal breaker but can be distracting.

[NuggetHeads]

Great interview and Cem is always awesome to hear 🥐💎

[Tahuti]

Do you think you can ask Cem how he measures the amount of money it takes to move the markets 2%. In the interview, he mentioned 120 billion can move the market x %. I'm curious how he measures this? Does he use volume in all markets? BTW, he's a great interview, this will help your channel. He's why i'm here. (I will be staying).

[jimdavis]

CEM is great to hear, however, it makes me think most investors are now in the market 90-100%! So what's going to drive it higher if all the cash is already in!

[tomaz]

the ads are relentless on here. would be great if you guys could reduce the frequency a bit...

[smk]

good content but the echo was annoying

[LoneWolf]

Most people have no clue the gold Cem is speaking here.

[George-jmrn]

Cem is the anti-Buffett: He focuses almost entirely on macro; Buffett has never been focused on macro.

[lustgarten]

He says "you'd be crazy not to be bullish into the end of this year providing we don't get a sell off in the next month". Does this make any sense.