Is The UK Set for an Unexpected Economic Boom? (Probably Not!)

The Pound has risen 10% against the mighty dollar in recent years. Is there finally good news around the corner?

0:00 Intro
0:53 Why Pound is Strong
4:58 Inconvenient Truths
6:23 Profit Warnings

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ABOUT
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[lucasdeyton]

Ngl read the first part of the video title and got excited

[Kalarandir]

Even if nothing else is achieved, government stability will help the country.

[DaveRobinsonYT]

Muddling through. The UK has a national value of muddling through — making the best of a bad situation with hope rather than decisive action.

[markturner]

Cant believe economists continue to highlight Truss's mere blip in the grand scheme of mass liquidations due to interest rate rises, this is what happens when economists allow partisan views above impartial objectivity.

[mikedennington]

It went down more than 10% in October 2022 so coming up 10% is only back to where it was, and is now.

[davidpaterson]

Currency “strength” and “weakness” is always RELATIVE to other currencies and the PERCEIVED RISK of holding them vs others. It may NOT have much to do with concrete economic data or prospects as much as “market sentiment”. So why would £ improve relative to others? 1) UK has just had an election, demonstrating a stable, peaceful transition of government and the likelihood of a “less exciting” (5 PMs in 8 years) - but therefore by definition more stable and less risky - period of administration. 2) France (key pillar of the €) has just had an election, doing the opposite and likely to be less, not more, predictable and stable 3) a number of other countries in the EU have had or will soon have election that have created unpredictability of future government policy. 4) the USA i - well, we know what’s happening there and it doesn’t spell political and economic stability. So, RELATIVE TO the USA and EU ($ and €) the U.K. and therefore the £, are lower risk than they were eg last month.

[davideyres]

Yep seen the strong pound. Noticed the reduction in the cost of petrol because of a strong £. Oh wait.

[sargon]

Thanks for your videos.
I find them very insightful.
Sterling behaves like a mid income economy's currency (by mid income I mean 15, 000 - 25, 000 USD per annum).

That it does so and performs even more erratically than the Polish Zloty, the Hungarian Forint, the Romanian Lei, the Bulgarian Leva, the Georgian Lari, the Thai Baht, the Malaysian Ringgit, the Chilean Peso and practically every mid income currency worldwide is a tell tale sign the UK is destined to also become a mid income economy within 5 to 10 years.

The recent strength in Sterling is a result of a pick up in consumption, the recovery in services (especially the hospitality business that includes F & B which is expected after 2.5 years of lockdowns) and because the property collapse is not happening.

Why it isn't happening is mainly due to the fact the UK takes in the highest number of immigrants on a per capita basis in the entire world.

These newcomers are the major source of increase in consumption and keep demand up.

It is a classic ponzi scheme because the immigrants are less productive and often impoverished and rely on social services.

As the tax base shrinks a major devaluation in Sterling a-la-Japanese-Yen is likely to happen in the next 36 months.

If the devaluation is coupled by a collapse of credit (especially in real estate) it will be a double whammy that could chop off 25% to as much as 40% of GDP in USD terms (keep in mind the USD will also decline in value vis-a-vis major trading economies such as China so it is a triple whammy).

And did I mention the geostrategic threats the UK is facing from the East?

[penderyn]

A relatively strong currency with a weak economy is a bad mixture

[drscopeify]

Usually a weak currancy pulls the economy out of the bottom and back in to growth but UK is very unique, the export market might be seen as higher quality goods and after run of inflation it might not impact exports as a rising currancy usual would, the large tourism sector is growing, the world leading financial markets which is now starting to attract money back as interest rates around the world are set to fall, is all a big mover of the Pound. Until interest rates find a balance with inflation, the UK until then, stands for a good economic run, I think so anyway, but time will tell.

[iandixon]

Crikey, if I ever find myself getting slightly positive about any economic Outlook, I'll make sure I look you up again.

[zd]

A video on rent control and why its bad (if you believe that ) would be nice. I saw a lot of people call for it before the general election.

[homegardens]

One opinion is that as long as the UK system (and other countries obviously) keep encouraging greed it's going to be very difficult for the populace to regain it's mindset to begin the hardwork needed to get this country up off the ground. It could be done but after all, if most people feel the system is stacked against them this doesn't inspire people to do the work required. Sad

[TasmanianDevil]

The moment/opportunity has passed. GBP will drop again once the election hype fizzles out. I have invested in US companies whilst it was 1.30 to dollar and anticipating a depreciation.

The only UK investments I have are insurance and basic nessesitys like water, gas, electric, etc.

[horace]

Most of my spare pounds go to Aliexpress, in the not so distant past I used to get 1.6 dollar to pound . back in the day it was 3 dollars . .that was a very very long time ago. Jeez where does the tme go?

[richardcoppack]

If we have real wage increases without a concurrent increase in productivity, it will lead to inflation.

[lokesh]

It Booms when Investments are Directed towards Infrastructure in Smaller Cities for Private Industry.

London Costs need to be Higher.

[briangriffiths]

Cheaper energy will feed through to industrial profits. The profit reports published at the moment are positive and inflation is likely to continue to be steady unless another war breaks out! The UK weapons industry will be busy ramping up production and that will boost other spending in the areas where bullets, rockets, shells and missiles are made. Watch out for AR6 results and we might be surprised at the possible investment into renewable energy, where some additional growth may be expected. There has been productivity growth in transport. The shortage of lorry drivers has boosted rail on freight and incentives such as at Southampton where containers have a £10 handling fee which is paid back to those leaving by train and an incentive paid those going less than 140 miles has enabled more to leave by rail and on significantly longer trains.

[simonsadler]

From Spain we see a boom in poverty , good for my hard earned full pension £ = €1.2 .Why doesn't, Starmer rejoin, something to hide, no shortage of cheap Fruits in Spain, red wine in a carton €1.05 per litre .

[rotherhiteboy]

You make me want to go to sleep with your voice 😂