A whole system approach to techno-economic assessment for the ocean energy sector - Owain Roberts

Institute for Energy Systems Research Conference 2016
Hosted by the IES Conference Team
Tuesday 6th December 2016

Session 2.a: Policy & Innovation

Speaker: Owain Roberts
Title: A Whole System Approach to Techno-economic Assessment for the Ocean Energy Sector

Abstract:
The commercialisation of ocean energy has not been achieved despite several developers reaching full-scale, open-water deployment, an advanced milestone on the technology readiness level (TRL) scale. This calls into question the current development path of ocean energy, which has significantly lagged behind other renewable energy technologies. Resultantly, there is now a focus on a more considered approach to the development trajectory, for example, it has been suggested that support mechanisms and investment have not been applied appropriately.

One key problem is a lack of design convergence which results in unstructured and unfocused resource allocation and adds confusion for investors. The lack of a robust method for comparing and assessing devices at early stages of development has led to a fixation on designs which once deployed are found to under-perform. To address these issues a clear methodology for techno-economic assessment on a subsystem level is required.

For the early stages of technology development current indicators in the ocean energy sector are not accurate enough to describe the commercial ability of a technology due to the large number of assumptions required. This includes the Levelised Cost of Energy or LCOE which is widely used to compare emerging renewable generation and sets the basis for governmental decision making, despite the large uncertainty in its calculation for low TRL technologies.

This project aims to develop a unified economic modelling methodology for the assessment of ocean energy components, subsystems and converters through the observation of key metrics. It will provide informed guidance on the level of investment and the correct strategy required to successfully progress along the TRL scale and investigate how to deal with uncertainty in techno-economic assessment and its implications on meaningful decision making.

The impact of this research will be to facilitate public sector programmes, such as the EU’s Horizon 2020 or calls by Wave Energy Scotland (WES), in their evaluation of projects and setting of award criteria. A standardised techno-economic assessment framework will be proposed so that fair comparison among components and devices is achieved within the ocean energy sector. By highlighting only those components and/or devices with true commercial potential it will ensure resources and investment is focused and will help to drive the innovation required to improve performance, reliability and, ultimately, sustained cost-reduction. This unified process will help the development and deployment process for ocean energy to be de-risked and design consensus to be achieved.

Owain Roberts
Institute for Energy Systems:

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