Calculating the Best Odds for EVERY Shiny Pokemon (Again)

(This vid contains mild spoilers for a postgame secret in Indigo Disk, as well as showcasing new and returning pokemon - but no spoilers for the unreleased Epilogue.)

0:00 Introduction
2:34 Illegal Shinies
3:59 Event Exclusive
5:07 Free Shinies
7:09 Ultra Space
8:08 Odd Egg
8:44 Shiny Gene Breeding
10:33 Chain Fishing
11:12 Dynamax Adventures
12:13 Radar Chains
12:51 Mass Outbreaks
13:43 Gen 4 Radar
14:13 Massive Mass Outbreaks
14:53 SOS Chains
15:37 Horde Encounters
16:40 Brilliant Pokemon
17:26 Gen 9 Outbreaks
19:07 Masuda Method
20:16 Meal Powers
20:50 Full Odds
24:59 Calculating Speed
36:30 Final Rankings

Thanks for reading the description; here's the full shiny list I made for this video in case you were looking for it. I hope you actually watched the video first and didn't just come straight here for the end results but hey, it's not like i'll ever find out if you did.

[CannedWolfMeat]

Took them 9 months (and also 14 years) but they finally removed another pokemon from the Shiny Locked tier - Meloetta is now obtainable as a shiny if you have a completed Paldea, Kitakami and Blueberry Dex in the mobile version of Pokemon Home!

[Ocarinist_Drew]

It's worth mentioning that Shiny breeding in Gen 2 can be much faster if you use the Dodrio Tower in Pokemon Stadium 2, which allows you to play at 4x speed. You can also tell if an egg is shiny before it hatches by looking at it in the PC in PS2, as the egg itself will have a different color texture/model if it's Shiny.

[DangerXCV]

GF really put Gimmighoul in raids for a week and a half, kept it full odds, restricted the shiny chance to 5 star raids, and said good luck. Oh and not to mention that Gimmighoul's shiny is difficult to tell and raids don’t make the shiny sound or animation.

[leidenfrost]

Your tier list at the end was exactly what I'd hoped for when clicking on this video! Incredible dedication!

[Eddiefrb]

im working on a shiny living dex and this is the only youtube video i have ever had bookmarked before. extremely well researched, insightful and interesting. deserves way more views

[incandescence]

I was surprised that Celebi was the only truly full odds Pokemon, especially since that was the first shiny hunt I ever did as a kid

[JamSandwich]

dexnav is actually boosted odds on every encounter, there's just an additional boost on the 50th and an even more boosted chance on the 100th, in fact there exists a calculator for it that tells you your precise odds given you scenario (research level, 50th/100th encounter and whether or not you have the shiny charm). I believe it is also worth noting that gen 6 radar completely resets your shiny chances when you catch your shiny patch shiny, even though the chain is still "active", additionally A LOT of the patch area in x and y are impossible to get ideal grass patches, significantly lowering your chances of reaching and successful 40 chain, with there being only a few notable areas where you can nicely use the radar (route 5, route 7, azure bays secret shore and the pokemon village to name a few)

[hitavi]

I love how all of the cards for each method is some kind of meme or something and then when you get to full odds it's just the sad music from gen V

[Mimiyan_or_Pikapikafan]

6:50 important correction: you only need 10 coaches to get Cyrano to appear and battle you. So its definitely way more reasonable then all of them

[perryjackson]

I was very skeptical of the title/claim of this video, but the amount of time and research presented in this video is amazing. I really appreciate that you break down each game and each method of shiny hunting.

[cammyp]

Hey, I really enjoyed the video! I have one piece of information though about the shiny blitzle you get from Cyrano; I was able to battle him after maxing out the friendship of the entire top row of the coaches, so it should only be 4, 800 Blueberry Points (as opposed to the 13, 800 mentioned). Still not a walk in the park, but a lot less time consuming!

[lindseymccartney]

As someone who's done the manaphy and jirachi hunts, I wanted to add some info about the average lengths of those hunts.

For the wishmaker jirachi, you can skip a cutscene and use a save corruption to avoid having to totally restart the save, cutting encounters down to just about 90 seconds per jirachi. At that pace, it would take 10896 minutes to get to the 1/7264 odds of that particular hunt (or 181.6 hours.)

For manaphy, assuming you're hunting with 4 eggs on diamond/pearl, as is typically considered optimal, it's approx. a 20 minute reset per 4 eggs. This means you can reach odds in 40, 960 minutes, or just over 682 hours. Manaphy could also be as slow as 163, 840 minutes (2730 hours) if you're hunting with only one egg, as it's still a 20 minute cycle to get far into the game to trade.

[thetruegge]

The XY radar is deceptively tricky to get to a full chain on; it’s super inconsistent. And with BDSP’s slow loading, you’re probably better just chaining in Platinum as much as possible, despite the nominally lower odds (Platinum radar hunting is also very well documented).

[MikeSharpeWriter]

There's a not well known glitch with the Gen 3 games that can be abused for the Wishmaker/Channel Jirachi which can reduce the "reset" time down to a few minutes. Significant for Channel, due to the E4 Requirement. There's a guide by im a blisy on how it's done

[cammy]

Don't forget to mention that if you have a Japanese copy or gsc, the odd egg has a 50% chance of being shiny I believe. I know it's increased but I can't remember how much

[supersaiyankirby]

Think a good caveat to mention with excluding Go for its variable shiny rates is that legendary raids that arent shiny locked are always 1/20 so generally pretty accessible depending on raid availability/money for raid passes.

[ARDIZsq]

Something to note about Masuda breeding between SWSH and SV:
Getting eggs in SWSH is an active process, while in SV it's passive. So while getting eggs may be faster in SWSH, you can multitask while breeding in SV if that's important. Heck, breed something in SV and do another hunt in a different game while you wait for more eggs!

[Sh-qceh]

A note on Ora’s dexnav. At a 999 encounter, + shiny charm, it has been calculated, tho varied, to be at a ball park of 1/180-1/200 ish chance. Which is ridiculously good. Your chains don’t really matter, except for the 50th and 100th, and the additional random 4% chance shouldn’t matter too much either.

It takes about an hour and 10 mins on grass dexnav, to reach 100 encounters on average.

Source: Am a shiny hunter myself, have caught more than 300 shinies in Oras alone via dexnav.

[skeletorthebest]

Correction: You only need to befriend 10 out of 23 coaches for the shiny Blitzle. I’ve gotten it with just 12.

[ltjgambrose]

One notable thing about the Ultra Space shinies is that a lot of the Pokemon they (seemingly nonsensically) chose are ones that have gender differences.
Which is to say: if you want every form in the Seedot line you need five non-shiny Pokemon (Seedot, Nuzleaf M, Nuzleaf F, Shiftry M, Shiftry F) and their corresponding shinies. Since you can get shiny Nuzleaf quite easily in the Ultra Wormholes it means that the hardest form in that line is, weirdly, shiny Seedot.
It's a huge blessing from the clever game developer who came up with that list, because similar Pokemon exist (like shiny Torchic, Combusken, and Blaziken has the same gender difference split but with terrible female odds) and these were equally annoying until Gen 7.